psuhoffman

if the primary hangs on too long that's a bigger problem for places southeast of 95

Along 95 mixes with sleet for a good while...but even that I am somewhat skeptical...it secondaries to the outer banks and tracks up off the coast and stalls for 12 hours just east of Ocean City while it tracks the upper energy right over us. History suggests that works out pretty good. The one factor muting the outcome somewhat on the CMC is the coastal takes its time really getting going. But amp that up SLIGHTLY...say one more bump like this was from 0z and we end up with a very nice outcome.

I would but they aren't updated yet...WXBELL takes FOREVER to update the CMC . By the time they do I have usually moved on to other things lol

CMC is a nice hit IMO. 95 mixes with sleet for a while but gets a nice WAA thump and then some CCB love on the back end. Definitely an improvement over 0z

yes but it has a much better secondary to the outer banks v to the delmarva last run. But yea the pesky primary hanging on about 6 hours too long is making this more difficult then it needs to be lol.

Do you find it odd that even with an incredibly far north primary and transfer...the other guidance still tries to put down some wrap around precip with the ULL in our area. What's odd about that imo is it kind of suggests the upper level track supports the euro idea of a further south secondary. The other guidance looks as if it runs the lead wave out ahead of the upper support and never recovers. Not saying that can't happen...we do love a good fail around here.

from the precip plots that update to 120 hrs the CMC is a pretty good WAA thump for DC and points southeast...then the coastal takes over south of GFS but doesn't really get going like the euro...its weak and diffuse...95 west stays sleet with the somewhat weak CCB precip, a line from Ji to me west stays snow...its hard to tell what the results are until qpf because the western areas obviously get all snow and better ratios but the heaviest precip with the WAA wave is further southeast.

I don’t buy the icon thermals. Low tracks from outer banks to 50 miles east of OC then due north to cape map before fading NE. That’s a good track this time of year for anyone 95 west.

No there would be another 6 hours of goods for the majority cluster with lows tucked off Delmarva. You can likely add another 1-3” to the mean snowfall south to north starting at EZF.

That and it’s 18z so they are also skewed by those suppressed members where by then it’s sunny and 42 degrees because suppressed or not the cold gets scoured by the ridging ahead of the wave and only floods back in if it amplified. So those weak OTS members are also likely pretty warm at 1pm. Add in they are low resolution so likely a bit too warm across the members with a storm also. I would worry way more about the h5 and surface mslp then the surface temp mean at that range.

That track is freaking perfect for a classic snowstorm. If a low tracking over VA beach and tucked in just east of the VA capes doesn’t work on Feb 1...

Yes, I think some were rooting for that ridge to pump more but that doesn’t work when it’s centered east like that. There isn’t enough space for the wave to dig, amplify, and turn the corner and lift. It’s unlikely to gain much latitude once the secondary forms and gets captured. If it digs too much it won’t recover. We’re so used to wanting things to dig more but this is a case where imo were better off with less ridge and less digging. Let the h5 feature slide ESE and capture the secondary off the VA capes not down off NC. EPS likes that option.

EPS is still more important at this range. Still outside 100 hours.

You’re being optimistic? What is happening.

EPS is worthy of tears. It’s beautiful. Makes that op run a little easier to take. But given a few factors, seasonal trend, the location of the upper level ridge in Canada and the associated flow over New England and the fact the western ridge is centered east of the Rockies...I am more worried about suppressed then a cutter as a total fail here. Suppressed might not necessarily mean it all stays south...could do a split like this storm yesterday where the WAA associated wave gets suppressed south and a northern feature kinda weakly meanders to our NW and we barely get any precip. But the issue with that kind of outcome is still suppression because imo with the cold, the high location, and the flow to our north even an amplifying wave that tries to cut would give us a nice warning level thump snow. The only path to a fail I see is if the storm starts to get suppressed by the flow (like everything else lately) and can’t amplify to the coast. So I’m definitely not tossing any towel, it’s a good setup, but I don’t like seeing the best operational trend towards my fail option. Btw it’s really rare lately for the ensembles (gefs or eps) to disagree so strongly with the op in the day 4-6 range anymore. I’ve noted that in recent years they’ve become mostly a “yea that” chorus of affirmation. I have no idea why they seem to align with the op more frequently. Maybe the ops are better and have less hiccup runs anymore. Obviously they can be wrong but not in ways inconsistent with their own physics so the ensembles can’t see that error either. Interesting that this run the eps diverged so strongly from the op. The optimist in me wants to believe the op was just a hiccup.

Btw we don’t want the ridge out west pumping more. It’s too Far East and positively tilted. The more that pumps the more pressure to dig the trough into the southeast it exerts. We don’t want that. There is too much blocking for that. We want the h5 to track ESE across VA not dive SE into NC! We have a beautiful wave that is blocked from lifting we don’t want it to dig and get squashed in the flow. We want it to slide more east and develop the low off the mid Atlantic not the southeast.

I was worried about that trend BEFORE this run but no one wanted to listen because the run showed 40”. I said yea but now we are one more adjustment exactly like the last 3 runs from a suppressed solution but everyone was sure the south trend would magically stop now that they were in the bullseye. Look maybe this was a bad run. EPS not out yet. Maybe euro over corrected. Maybe this time we get a compromise. It’s not 100%. But that h5 low was shifting south consistently too much every run for me to be comfortable given the seasonal trend for storms that were cutters day 8 to end up suppressed waves that can’t even get much precip to us.

Messy transfer. The euro amplified the h5 low and rolls it through with a clean transfer and phase with the secondary. The other guidance gets to the Ohio valley then gets messy. The upper level low broadens and starts to pinwheel around and the secondary can’t really amplify and develop a nice clean closed circulation to get that ccb going.

Yes but if the further north primary idea of the gfs/Cmc is correct it’s a split threat. WAA wave gets suppressed coastal forms late. We’re stuck in between. Always something waiting to steal out snow man.

Too far west...tucks in slightly too tight. But I don’t buy a lot from off VA beach ending up inland over NJ. But one reason that run is icon takes too long to progress the h5 east.

Gefs trends

It (oddly I don’t but it) holds onto the primary longer. But it’s a lot colder before the 6-12 hours or so that screws up our thermals. But despite that it’s still closer to getting us with a coastal after. If you remove the primary hanging on so long this was a pretty big jump the right way otherwise Imo.

It’s a colder run then 18z though.

Cmc is definitely not the euro. But it’s kinda a half way solution between the euro and gfs. Sound familiar? When did we have that scenario.

Depends what happens with the secondary after 120 but it’s a decent WAA thump first. Especially for DC southeast.