psuhoffman

Exactly. There was a decoupling between our area and places just to our north around 2000. Before that there was a better correlation between snowy and non snowy periods. But since 2000 it’s been way more common for places like NYC to get a ton of snow in same seasons we are way below avg. My fear is that was the up cycle and the best we got out of it during that 15 year period was that we were a little less below avg than we were before and after if true it makes the trend alarmingly worse

I agree in a general sense. I do have a concern wrt snow though. I’ve thought this a while and not voiced it but wth. What if the period from 2000-2015 was the big +snow period we’ve been waiting for and we simply missed it (with the exception of a few great years) because of warming? Places not far north of us that historically we have a decent correlation wrt snow had an amazing run. Many places not far from us has like 11/15 years above avg. Meanwhile the best we did most years during that stretch was ok and had more below than above snowfall years. It’s always run in cycles but my fear is that was the snowy period we’ve been waiting for and we just missed out because we are too far south to really ever get a truly snowy long term stretch like previous historical ones.

The usual suspects on Twitter. And some get overly excited by every model run that shows digital blue. Then get mad when reality sets in.

Here’s how bad it’s been the last 7 years…DCA could avg 27” the next 3 seasons and it would still end the 10 year period below avg. A 30 year avg already pathetically lower than previous historical periods!!!

You’ve been unhappy 7 years in a row. Isn’t it time you make a change. Stop waiting for external forces to change your situation and do it yourself. I’m not saying this again. So I’m gonna be as blunt as possible then I’m done forever with this. Just accept the snow climo here isn’t going to make you happy. Accept that. Really accept it in every way Damnit. Then do whatever you have to to be happy. Please. I’m not trying to be an ass. I do care. You’re torturing yourself. Stop it. Accept the reality and then do what is necessary to be happy.

And we’re experts in not looking good

Oh no you said it. He might be jumping off a building right now. Ive posted the data to back this up. Years that started like this one didn’t end well 99% of the time. But I’ve been too timid to flat out say it. But I feel it.

Don’t worry CFS says a pattern change is only 20 days away!

It’s not just anecdotal it’s verification scores are a mess

You think I spent thousands of hours pouring over every text and studying every snowstorm we’ve ever had because I don’t like snow??? Dude I know. But you need to just accept it. Seriously. Try this…assume it’s never going to snow again. Just accept that. Then what are you going to do? Ball up and cry forever? Or…find other things to invest in emotionally that bring you joy. Or move to where it snows. Or chase snowstorms. Take some control of your situation. Own your story. Do what it takes to make you happy instead of wallowing in defeat. Man up and deal.

Ya we probably aren’t talking enough about the fact the Gfs has been a real train wreck since the last update. People say this all the time and usually it a joke but they really did break the thing. Not that it was great before but honestly I found the Gfs more useful 10 years ago when it had more consistent biases and I felt I could adjust and figure out what the error was. Now the only consistent bias is being horribly wrong.

@Maestrobjwa I suggest you learn to laugh about this. It’s all you can do. Ignoring it won’t change it. Getting upset won’t make you feel better. Just laugh and find other things that give you joy in life. Or chase the snow. Or move somewhere that gets snow. But for the love of god don’t stay here and be depressed that it’s not snowing when you know it’s not going to snow 99% of the time.

It’s not my position. 90% of my posts are simply statistics, observations and guidance products. It’s not my fault all the objective evidence sucks. Back in October when I was saying this season was likely gonna hurt that was me making forecasts and opining. You had more of a case then. But now all I’m doing is posting what we’re all seeing. I didn’t make the models say that. I didn’t make it +10 all over the continent. I didn’t issue that NWS forecast. And you know how bad it is. Yet you continue to read then complain when it’s exactly what you know it will be? What do you want a hug? Ok I’ll try. Here’s an uplifting nugget. Life sucks but it’s ok because someday you die.

@Ji thank god the mjo is going into phase 8 or it could be a 110% chance of above normal!

I’m about as pessimistic as I’ve ever felt wrt snow but I don’t feel it’s unwarranted

Dulles got 15. Where you are now got 18-20”.

Feb and March 2015 were pretty awesome.

I remember in January 2015 you were all getting mad at me for being too optimistic because we were getting screwed but I kept saying be patient it’s gonna turn around.

Lag to some degree. But over the last several years it seems the cycle is this…whether by ridge or trough we get a period where the pac flow attacks and within 48 hours obliterates cold from the whole continent. Then it takes weeks to recover once the flow weakens and before enough cold can build another pac onslaught slams the door.

Ok. That looks great. It’s gonna be a snowstravaganza around Jan 25.

I'll still be posting moron...probably more so now Don’t worry. The longwave pattern might look great but… Temps still look mostly torched everywhere in N America except the desert SW from constant storms.

Anyways I feel like we’ve exhausted this topic. Time to go back to day 15 pattern chasing. Maybe this time it actually works out. We’re due and all that.

That comment wasn’t specific to here. Over the last 7 years we’ve had several comps to this pattern with a favorable longwave setup in a torched thermal regime and they all ended this way. This winter I’ve noted a lack of snow to the NW of waves even well to our north on several occasions.

Jan 1990 is a pretty bad comp to now. It was an awful longwave pattern regardless of background temps. A better comp looking at some historical analogs would be Jan 1992, Jan 1987, Jan 1964, Jan 1998, Late Jan early Feb 1983...and some others. The majority of the comps I see weren't that great, they were all above average temp periods...but guess what, almost all of them also featured some snow. Jan 1992 is the top analog and DC had 4" that month which is close to average. Jan 1987 is a top analog and DC got 2 snowstorms that month. Feb 87 is another decent analog and that month was very warm but DC got a 10" snowstorm from a wave that snuck under them despite it being 50-60 degrees a couple days before and after the storm. Same with some of the other analogs...they were all pretty warm but also most featured some snow. Even 1998 featured quite a bit of snow not that far NW of the cities. My area NW of DC/Balt had several snows by now that year. This year just perfect track rainstorms. I think the degradation is there. It's not like we went from epic cold periods to torch...but some warm but still able to snow periods have become absolute no hope torch patterns IMO.

Isn’t it up to us to look at the permutations presented by various simulations and determine what the most likely outcome is? I’m not sure what your point is. Do you think we have the ability to make simulations that are perfectly accurate at 5-10 days and are choosing to intentionally have variability? If so why?