psuhoffman

yea we can still snow, hope my pessimism regarding the situation NOW isn't interpreted as a "its never gonna snow again". But I think its becoming pretty impossible for us to get snow during "non cold" patterns when there are lots of examples in my archive of all snowstorms at BWI of a fluke snowstorm in an otherwise very warm pattern. Those don't seem to be a thing anymore. That's a problem when were in a warm pattern a very large percentage of the time. My other concern with these long range looks is unless my memory is wrong back around xmas didn't the period RIGHT NOW look like that on the guidance? I thought we were supposed to "flip right back to cold" by January 10 or something back when this current torch was starting. I was skeptical back then...arguing that historical climo data argued we probably wouldn't just flip back cold so fast...and climo usually beats guidance. Hopefully that doesn't happen again...but the longer we go into the season warm the less likely we are to suddenly flip cold according to past records in enso neutral and cold. Maybe the fact we have been in a more nino pattern though could mean its more likely this year than in past similar enso seasons. Hopefully...Im grasping here.

But we used to get a lot of snowstorms around here from a hudson high setup and a positive NAO. They were very marginal in most cases...storms where the snow fell mostly at 32-33 degrees and in many cases they did mix and were like a 6" snow in DC and more NW. Lately those setups aren't even close anymore. A 50/50 was always necessary for the southern mid atl to get a 20" snowstorm. But we used to be able to get a messy 6-10" storm that mixed without one from a setup like this. Yes maybe with a true block and a locked in 50/50 this could have worked out...but man come on how much snow are we really gonna get if we need to stack this many dominoes our way to get snow?

Yea I think we're just cooked here. I held out hope there was a way to get lucky...it's a good pattern to get systems to track under us. We used to be able to make that kinda thing work mid winter. But this just can't work out. The 12z GFS was damn near perfect from a longwave setup POV and it wasn't even close. I guess the truth is unless we get cross polar pure siberian air involved we have no chance anymore. ETA: it doesn't seem north america can sustain a cold profile anymore once cross polar flow is cut off. The pacific wins and obliterates any cold from the entire continent. This has happened over and over again in recent years.

@CAPE we were talking about this as a test case for a Hudson High setup. I think we might have the answer. Those setups are almost never arctic air cold. It would be almost impossible to have true cross polar flow in that setup. They need to work with a domestic airmass. But look at the setup on the GFS (right or wrong doesn't matter because it wasn't cold enough). Look at the predominant airflow. It's not straight mid lat pac puke. The predominant flow is out of the Yukon! Yes its mixed with the southern stream flow off the pacific but that is ALWAYS going to be true. If polar continental air is obliterated and dominated by the pacific air that will always get mixed into the equation simple because were at the mid latitudes and the pacific is what is upstream, it's never going to work. Even with a predominant flow that should be good enough, I am not saying truly cold, this would have been marginal in any era...but its not marginal now, its a straight torch. Yea we can point out the strong pac jet but thats been non stop for almost a decade now. At some point we need to just accept that as a permanent thing now. In that paradigm this setup no longer can work.

You're using an effect as a cause. Let me explain. Look at the longwave pattern setup here... This is ideal in every single way. Textbook. Pacific trough off the west coast (if you look at past big snowstorms this is exactly where it typically is) PNA ridge is actually slightly east of where we want it and under normal circumstances might even indicate the threat of an off the coast track. The SW in question is amplifying and about to go neutral as it enters the TN valley and look at the flow over the top suppressing the ability for the upper level features to lift. Now look at the surface... 1038 high nosing into New England with 1036 all the way down into VA. But look at the thermal boundary. Despite that pressure configuration look at where the thermal boundary is! The thermal boundary is north of Chicago and already pushing north of DC and Pittsburgh before the wave even approaches! Surface lows will seek out the baroclinic boundary. The upper low tracks from southern MO through the TN valley and then through southern VA. It's a perfect track because the longwave pattern is perfect in every way. The reason the surface low ends up north of the upper low and cuts is because the thermal boundary is way up there. It's just too warm. That's it. Why is everyone trying to find complicated excuses for what is a very simple problem. If the thermal boundary was where it typically should be given that pressure and longwave pattern presentation (the purple line) the surface low would not cut to northeast Ohio. The reason this system is cutting is NOT the longwave pattern or some flow in the setup its simply because its so warm that is where the thermal boundary is. The surface low ends up meandering north of the upper level support even because of it. There is nothing in terms of pattern features that can prevent that if its warm all the way to the upper great lakes despite a perfect longwave setup.

They actually aren't THAT far apart...the features are both there on the euro but the NS feature is weaker and a little further north because it didnt phase with the mid latitude wave like the GFS does. But that kind of thing often isn't resolved at long lead times.

Not a bad look??? lol its beautiful, I'm gonna throw a virtual rock at the first person that complains about the high. That is a damn classic setup for a snowstorm its just not cold enough. If there was just a normal airmass in place for mid January this would be a snowstorm without us having to sweat all these details. The details would simply determine if its 3" or 8" or maybe even more.

It's probably worth noting when we're looking at systems that are 6-10 days away...that the GFS just went from a low off Savannah to over Buffalo in the last 24 hours for a storm at day 4. For the record we wanted this change... we want that system further north to have more interaction with the NS and enhance the return flow behind it and confluence in the northeast. But those positive changes have been most offset by other issues cropping up in other places...more phasing, and the overall air mass has trended warming...not further north, the boundary is actually trending south some...but if the entire airmass trends a couple degrees warming it doesn't matter since its so marginal to begin with and any strong wave will have enough southerly flow ahead of it to easily obliterate an airmass that's barely cold enough to begin with. We will either need an absolutely dead perfect combination of everything and get CCB'd to death with dynamic cooling or we would have needed a weaker wave that takes a perfect track. But just interesting to note the major changes happening at day 3-4 and keep that in mind when over analyzing details of longer lead stuff.

lol I don't need 200" a season. The climate up here until recently was just fine... actually if you go back prior to 2010 those close to 100" seasons were unheard of or at least super rare. But getting below 20" was also super rare. There was way less variance up here than DC, 95% of winters were between 20" and 60" with a mean around 39 and a median around 35. Very rarely, like 1 in 20 years there was a season above or below that. But recently suddenly we've had 2 seasons way way over that range and because of that the mean has actually gone up a bit...but we are also getting way more ratters even up here where it barely snows that much. I would much prefer getting a consistent 30" most seasons than this 100" every 10 years and crap in between nonsense.

Our equation is nearly impossible because it’s just not cold enough. So we need a perfect 50:50 and a perfect track and a phase to pull in cold but not too soon because any southerly flow obliterates the airmass and not too late because the flow actually is suppressive and we need dynamic cooling and …ok you get the point. That’s way better but I’d still be worried anything decently strong cuts in that look. Something vexes me. Over this now 7 year run of futility the one constant has been the problem a strong pacific jet has caused. But that’s now been a constant for 7 years through 4 Nina’s, 2 neutral and 1 Nino. And we’ve seen it cause the same problem in opposite pac longwave patterns. If we have a Nina like ridge the screaming jet goes over the top and digs a trough to Mexico on the west coast pumping a huge SE ridge infused with pac puke. If we have a Nino like trough the jet goes under and blasts sub tropical pac puke straight across the whole continent. The issue is according to research I’ve seen referenced the enhanced jet isn’t related to enso it’s a result of the expanding Hadley cell and might be permanent. If so…what are we even looking for? We’re failing in opposite ways because of the same underlying problem and I don’t see that going away no matter what longwave configuration we get. I mean ya once in a blue moon we will luck into the super rare full latitude epo pna ridge combo but the other 90% of the time what’s the answer?

Has the mjo ever saved us when things looked bad?

DC has averaged 8” the last 7 years! Baltimore isn’t much better. Where you are isn’t nearly as impacted because of elevation. The warming has happened the most in the boundary layer. Your elevation helps mitigate that some. You’re also colder than DC usually. You also aren’t in an urban heat island. So I can see why where you are this doesn’t seem as dire.

I dunno my retirement options went from 3 to 1

Someone murdered the guy who was supposed to flip the switch on the were due switchboard.

I know I’m just being a smart arse. Trying to have some fun with this god awful state we’re in. Thing is it’s not that we have gone 8 years since a big snow season. For me the frustrating thing is that a lot of the years in between good ones are becoming total ratters. Since we spend 80-90% of the time not in those rare unicorn seasons it’s way more important Imo what the typical base state is in the interim periods. I would gladly give up some snow during those 1-2 good seasons in order to actually get closer to a respectable amount of snow during the other 8 years a decade.

You’re right. We should be discussing the pattern. Here…. that’s way less depressing

Here is an uplifting thought. The last 7 years have been so awful that even if DC has what would be a miraculous recovery and ends this season with 15” it would still need to average 26” over the next 3 seasons for the 10 year period to end up at DCAs already lowered and atrocious current 30 year avg of 14”.

Ya the not being a torch part is my main argument. The longwave pattern isn’t the problem it’s that the whole N American airmass is torched.

You’re making a straw man argument. No one has said it can’t snow. As a matter I’d fact a few posts up in this thread I literally said it will still snow and we will still get snowy seasons. But we are getting less. In the last 50 years DC has gone from averaging about 4 1”+ events per season to 2.5. They’ve gone from averaging about 18” to 14”. Their odds of a single digit snow season has doubled! Every metric has gone the same direction. Maybe in 5 years we change cycles and start some epic run but none of us can predict that. I’m simply basing this on what’s actually happening recently and now. But I don’t think you realize how big a hole were in. DC needs almost 20” this season just to avoid the last 7 years being the least snowy period ever! Let’s say DC ends this season with 10” and that’s optimistic and would be one of the best turn around for a season that started this way…then for DC to end a 10 year period back to its long term avg DC needs to avg 41” of snow the next 3 seasons! Even just to end 10 years back to the pathetic current lower avg (which wouldn’t even really refute my argument since the current 30 year avg is lower than the past) DC needs to avg 27” the next 3 seasons! I dunno man that seems like a huge hole to be expecting us to dig out. Seems more likely that at least for the near future the downward trend in snowfall continues. Even if DC gets 20” each of the next 3 years it will still end the 10 year period having lowered its snowfall average significantly under what was already a lowers avg from the last period.

It is warmer than it was 50/100/150 years ago. That’s not up for dispute. It’s just a fact. What’s disputable are 3 things. 1) How much of the cause is man (we don’t need to have that fight here it doesn’t matter to this discussion) 2) how much is cyclical 3) if it’s cyclical when will the cycle reverse But none of those things impacts my point. I’m not debating what snow climo will be 50 years from now. I’m debating what our snow climo is RIGHT NOW compared to the past. That’s more relevant because we base our expectations and forecasts on analogs and historical precedents. My point is right now we are in a warmer base state and it’s hurting our snow prospects right now compared to eras many of us use as the baseline for expectations. You might be right that 20 years from now things have flipped and it’s getting colder. I don’t agree but I can’t prove that’s wrong. But why does that even matter to what I’m saying?

Both those places have a colder climate. You can add a couple degrees and it would affect way less of their snow events. It might even help more than it hurts in their cases. Warming is causing increased snowfall in some places. But our area a larger % of the snow comes with temps very close to 32. Adding a couple degrees is more likely to hurt us. Additionally we get snow from boundary waves not arctic waves or lake affect. Very different. let’s simply state 2 facts. 1)It is getting warmer. 2) historically a lot of our snow fell with temps barely cold enough Those two facts when accepted together make this pretty obvious.

We have the PNA AO and EPA all good on the coldest week of the year. So of course we shouldn’t expect it to be cold enough to snow.

It's not that far off, yea this run of the euro totally lost the 50/50 so that part is not good but there is way more right than wrong with the picture

@Maestrobjwa its a long weekend next weekend...take off Friday and go chase the storm if you are that upset about it. There are healthier ways to cope.

wait don't answer that