psuhoffman

The usual suspects on Twitter. And some get overly excited by every model run that shows digital blue. Then get mad when reality sets in.

Here’s how bad it’s been the last 7 years…DCA could avg 27” the next 3 seasons and it would still end the 10 year period below avg. A 30 year avg already pathetically lower than previous historical periods!!!

You’ve been unhappy 7 years in a row. Isn’t it time you make a change. Stop waiting for external forces to change your situation and do it yourself. I’m not saying this again. So I’m gonna be as blunt as possible then I’m done forever with this. Just accept the snow climo here isn’t going to make you happy. Accept that. Really accept it in every way Damnit. Then do whatever you have to to be happy. Please. I’m not trying to be an ass. I do care. You’re torturing yourself. Stop it. Accept the reality and then do what is necessary to be happy.

And we’re experts in not looking good

Oh no you said it. He might be jumping off a building right now. Ive posted the data to back this up. Years that started like this one didn’t end well 99% of the time. But I’ve been too timid to flat out say it. But I feel it.

Don’t worry CFS says a pattern change is only 20 days away!

It’s not just anecdotal it’s verification scores are a mess

You think I spent thousands of hours pouring over every text and studying every snowstorm we’ve ever had because I don’t like snow??? Dude I know. But you need to just accept it. Seriously. Try this…assume it’s never going to snow again. Just accept that. Then what are you going to do? Ball up and cry forever? Or…find other things to invest in emotionally that bring you joy. Or move to where it snows. Or chase snowstorms. Take some control of your situation. Own your story. Do what it takes to make you happy instead of wallowing in defeat. Man up and deal.

Ya we probably aren’t talking enough about the fact the Gfs has been a real train wreck since the last update. People say this all the time and usually it a joke but they really did break the thing. Not that it was great before but honestly I found the Gfs more useful 10 years ago when it had more consistent biases and I felt I could adjust and figure out what the error was. Now the only consistent bias is being horribly wrong.

@Maestrobjwa I suggest you learn to laugh about this. It’s all you can do. Ignoring it won’t change it. Getting upset won’t make you feel better. Just laugh and find other things that give you joy in life. Or chase the snow. Or move somewhere that gets snow. But for the love of god don’t stay here and be depressed that it’s not snowing when you know it’s not going to snow 99% of the time.

It’s not my position. 90% of my posts are simply statistics, observations and guidance products. It’s not my fault all the objective evidence sucks. Back in October when I was saying this season was likely gonna hurt that was me making forecasts and opining. You had more of a case then. But now all I’m doing is posting what we’re all seeing. I didn’t make the models say that. I didn’t make it +10 all over the continent. I didn’t issue that NWS forecast. And you know how bad it is. Yet you continue to read then complain when it’s exactly what you know it will be? What do you want a hug? Ok I’ll try. Here’s an uplifting nugget. Life sucks but it’s ok because someday you die.

@Ji thank god the mjo is going into phase 8 or it could be a 110% chance of above normal!

I’m about as pessimistic as I’ve ever felt wrt snow but I don’t feel it’s unwarranted

Dulles got 15. Where you are now got 18-20”.

Feb and March 2015 were pretty awesome.

I remember in January 2015 you were all getting mad at me for being too optimistic because we were getting screwed but I kept saying be patient it’s gonna turn around.

Lag to some degree. But over the last several years it seems the cycle is this…whether by ridge or trough we get a period where the pac flow attacks and within 48 hours obliterates cold from the whole continent. Then it takes weeks to recover once the flow weakens and before enough cold can build another pac onslaught slams the door.

Ok. That looks great. It’s gonna be a snowstravaganza around Jan 25.

I'll still be posting moron...probably more so now Don’t worry. The longwave pattern might look great but… Temps still look mostly torched everywhere in N America except the desert SW from constant storms.

Anyways I feel like we’ve exhausted this topic. Time to go back to day 15 pattern chasing. Maybe this time it actually works out. We’re due and all that.

That comment wasn’t specific to here. Over the last 7 years we’ve had several comps to this pattern with a favorable longwave setup in a torched thermal regime and they all ended this way. This winter I’ve noted a lack of snow to the NW of waves even well to our north on several occasions.

Jan 1990 is a pretty bad comp to now. It was an awful longwave pattern regardless of background temps. A better comp looking at some historical analogs would be Jan 1992, Jan 1987, Jan 1964, Jan 1998, Late Jan early Feb 1983...and some others. The majority of the comps I see weren't that great, they were all above average temp periods...but guess what, almost all of them also featured some snow. Jan 1992 is the top analog and DC had 4" that month which is close to average. Jan 1987 is a top analog and DC got 2 snowstorms that month. Feb 87 is another decent analog and that month was very warm but DC got a 10" snowstorm from a wave that snuck under them despite it being 50-60 degrees a couple days before and after the storm. Same with some of the other analogs...they were all pretty warm but also most featured some snow. Even 1998 featured quite a bit of snow not that far NW of the cities. My area NW of DC/Balt had several snows by now that year. This year just perfect track rainstorms. I think the degradation is there. It's not like we went from epic cold periods to torch...but some warm but still able to snow periods have become absolute no hope torch patterns IMO.

Isn’t it up to us to look at the permutations presented by various simulations and determine what the most likely outcome is? I’m not sure what your point is. Do you think we have the ability to make simulations that are perfectly accurate at 5-10 days and are choosing to intentionally have variability? If so why?

no its because we didnt get a triple phased bomb cyclone to happen in exactly the right spot and stall and we didnt have a -4 std dv nao block with a full latitude EPO PNA ridge centered exactly where we need it with a 1050 arctic high over lake Placid and a storm that phases exactly as it reaches the NC coast and tracks to 37 miles east of Ocean City, not 36 miles, not 38 miles...it has to be 37 miles, and the deform band sets up right on top of us for 17 hours...not 16 hours because it takes at least 17 straight hours of heavy precip to dynamically cool the column. If all that didn't happen its obvious the problem is that all that failed not because it was too warm.

VIce and MDECOY both had a point, they were just obnoxious and ridiculous in how they presented it. And both have a penchant to exaggerate beyond reason. Example...was VIce right about it warming yes...but he claimed Cape May would be under water in 20 years. And he would try to destroy every thread to force people to talk about the issue. MDECOY was right its been bad but then he claims he has had no plowable snowstorms in 8 years. That's just ridiculous. I didn't engage when he said that a few weeks ago but I know where he lives...and I know there have been several storms that were like 4-6" at every reporting station around him and plenty cold enough over that period. Just last winter where he is got like 4" from the late Janaury storm that happened overnight with temps in the 20's. If he didn't get a plowable event from that then his roads must be heated or something. They are bad posters because of how they engage in discussion not the main points they try to make.