psuhoffman

Agree. As the period comes into better focus it seems guidance indicates 2 waves in that period. The first seems to favor another miller b with a NS wave diving SE into the trough. The next favors a pac wave ejecting out of the southwest but this time into a flow unlikely to cut.

Quick illustration why that wave around the 17-18th is different. that western trough isn’t the same. It’s a system ejecting off the pac (y) but it can’t amplify out west. Look at the pacific Z, it’s actually trying to pump a ridge in the west. That trough is just temporary as a system cuts across. Between the flow behind X and ahead of Z, Y has to kick out and track east not north and there is cold in front of it. Yes I know it’s March 17 my turn just pointing out why that is the best synoptic setup for us to get a flush hit.

Strong signal on both GEFS and GEPS for another miller b type system from a NS wave diving in around the 15th. But this time the boundary is further south so we have a better chance. Then both have what might be the best threat around the 17-20 from a system being ejected from the pac further south with a cold airmass in place for once. That’s more indicative of a setup where a primary can stay south of us. After that signs the pattern continues but by then climo is becoming really hostile for most of this region so I might continue to track threats after in the PA forum.

What did it show 12 hours ago?

Other guidance is 48 hours slower with wave 2 so Gfs likely doesn’t even have the generals correct so not worried about a weird specific issue like that NS retrograding low.

Wave 2 is a good setup. What limits it this run is a weird thing I doubt is correct from this range. that upper low over Michigan instead of sliding east (good) or phasing in (great) retrogrades NW to north of Minn…see which opens the door to ridging along the east coast. That’s a very weird progression. It’s too much of a good thing, blocking retrograding the whole pattern too much lol. Wouldn’t worry about it.

For reference this is what we want the thermals to look like as a wave approaches. Lol

@stormtracker flow already starting to back at 168. I think wave 2 has a shot on this run.

It’s possible wave 2 gets suppressed and the one behind…but yea I know we’re running out of time. The flow will be pretty suppressive for a while behind this first wave. This pattern is very similar to 2018 but we’re progressing about 5 days behind. That’s a big deal this time of year.

Consolation is that scenario sets up the next waves better. Remember it was a miller b that missed us that set the stage in March 2018. The next wave after actually got suppressed to our south then the 3rd wave is what finally delivered.

The block is having an effect. @Jimight have been right. Guidance trends bad when long lead chaos shows a good solution in a bad pattern. But the opposite should be true also!

Unless it hits then I’m interested in wave 1 lol.

This…my main focus on wave 1 is how it sets up wave 2

@stormtracker even if it’s not enough to help us with wave 1, we want the less amplified out west leading to a further east amplification scenario. Because the further east wave 1 amplifies the more effective it will be at setting the table for wave 2.

The pattern is still progressing as I expected but about 48-72 hours slower. This isn’t a can kick really it’s just that the initial wave is going to be slower and more amplified. Whether it’s over the upper Midwest or off New England, that more amplified wave 1 slows down the pattern progression. So the next handoff from the pac, wave 2, looks more like the 17-20 v 14-16th. Yes I know that’s a big deal because if the time of year but it is what it is. It’s hard for me to post images where I am but if you look at the gefs and eps on March 16 you can see the next wave ejecting from the west but this time with lower heights in front of it and the SER gone. That’s why that is the better threat. Plain and simple. The first wave ejects with too much warmth left over from the previous pattern in front of it. So we can kiss the primary and any WAA snow scenarios goodbye. That leaves us needing a perfect transfer and secondary solution. How often does that work out here any time of year? Possible yes. Likely no. There are way more win scenarios with wave 2. So far no ens guidance is indicating ridging issues in front of wave 2. The fail would be if we start to see too much separation between wave 1 and 2 and we begin to see a SER start to show between those waves. As soon as that trend starts it’s game over and I’ll begin to write my book. But there is reason to believe with the pac forcing opposite what its been due to a high amp mjo 8/1 this time will be different. If it’s not I have the perfect conclusion to my novel.

That’s pretty much exactly what I would guess too.

We still have hope coming up but I think the wave after the one we’re tracking now will have the better chance.

This year would still bad within the construct of the new normal! I am not saying this year is what every winter will be like. We just had some snow last winter. 2019 wasn’t awful. We had some snow in 2018. Yea 2017/2020/2023 were total non winters. So I am not saying this winter is the new normal. But I am concerned what we’ve seen on the whole of the last 7 might be closer to a new normal. I do think this is a dowb cycle and better days are ahead. But how much better is the question. Do we return to what used to be normal. ~20” in Baltimore. ~15 in DC. I have my doubts.

No the indo pac warm pool is but again that’s not a temporary problem and is also related to…you know.

Ok so we can snow that once every 12 years we get a perfect modoki moderate Nino that couples and coincides with a -AO. Ok. And how’s our snow climo gonna look in that reality if that’s what we need to get a snowy winter?

@Ji but if you’re saying part of the issue is with a warmer pac and expanded Hadley cell (which causes that pac firehose jet btw) it’s simply too much heat directed at us upstream I agree. But that’s not a temporary longwave pattern issue. That’s what I mean. It’s not just the pac longwave configuration. It’s just so warm that almost every configuration is a fail except that incredibly rare epo pna full lat ridge combo.

The SER pumps ahead of every wave lately regardless of the pacific longwave pattern. The only time we’ve been able to suppress the SER is the rare times we’ve had an absolutely PERFECT pac longwave configuration such that we get a full latitude epo pna ridge and direct cross polar arctic air.

Before my rant I’m about to unleash let me say I’m still hopeful for the period as a whole, especially the 15-20th. But so what. If we get one snow it doesn’t change anything I’m about to say… Ridges are pumping heat way further north than historically typical. Not just the SER but that’s the one we care about most! The pacific Hadley cell has expended and shifted north. We have had numerous perfect track rainstorms the last 5 years. We have seen cold fail to push even when we have a flow off northern Canada because even a bit of maritime mix ruins it. We only get cold with direct cross polar flow lately. The pacific, gulf, and Atlantic basin SST are on fire. The mountains in the west will encourage troughing but as soon as systems eject that feel the heat from the gulf and amplify and cut. Blocking fails more often at our latitude because the ridging is stronger than historically normal shifting the typical mid latitude response north. Patterns that used to mitigate a bad pac lately fail to even dent the SER. None of this is speculative. I’m just describing what is ACTUALLY happening. This isn’t predictive. This has already happened. It’s not change. It’s our current reality. But it seems to me there is something, that which must not be named, that can explain all of this!

This was a Nino! It’s not just the pacific. Im going to say this over and over and over. The pac is an easy scape goat since we are in a -pdo so we have had a predominant -pna. But we snowed in past -pdo periods when we got blocking with a crap pacific. A bad pac shouldn’t mean no hope no matter what else is going on! Yes we snow way more with a good pac but I can cite a ton of snows historically with a pac every bit as bad as we’ve had lately! And the proof it’s not just the pac is the few times the pac hasn’t been awful the SER has still been an issue.

It’s more than that. We’ve had snowstorms from waves that came out of the southwest before. The real problem is any wave that approaches the SER goes berserk! Look at the wave on the 18z Gfs in the SW on the 16th. Tons of cold and confluence in front of it. But within 24 hours the flow ahead of that wave obliterates it and pumps a ridge to kingdom come again. I’ve pointed this out before and no one wanted to engage. But warm is just winning in a rout. Waves come out of ty west and amp to hell no matter what the pattern in front is. It’s not the pac. By day 3 the pac is almost the exact opposite with a north central pac trough. You can’t blame the pac with a ridge there then blame the pac with a trough. I’m tired of that nonsense. There is something else going on. The SER is being fed by more than just the pac and because if it any wave that comes off the pacific amplified way to our west.