psuhoffman

looks like a mix of 1966, 1978, 1993 and 2003

@CAPE WRT AIFS ENS There are only 2 members that have any snow at all from the lead wave next week. The median snowfall from Saturday evening to Monday evening of PD weekend is about 3-4" across our area. The mean is closer to 5". The split is about 30% of the members have a VERY big storm with a classic 95 points NW MECS/HECS signature. Then there are another 20% that have something pretty decent...2-4 to 4-6" type storms...a few members have something very minor and about 40% have absolutely nothing. It was an improvement over the last 3 runs and got us back to where we were 24 hours ago when I made that post showing how "interesting" they looked. BUt yes...the total mean is inflated some. BTW, they are interested in your window too...the median spikes up another 1-3" during your period and the mean about 2-3" which is significant for that lead time

Which is my point. It used to be cold enough to overcome imperfections in patterns. I’ll give you an example. When I looked at every 5”+ snow at Baltimore from 1948 on there was a subset of storms in fall Hudson Bay high storms. Because the whole pattern was utter dog shit except for that one feature. Because a high there tended to force a favorable storm track and almost all these storms were warm and barely cold enough to snow. The most recent example was 1997. A horrible pattern. -pna. But we got an 8” wet snow storm when it was like 45-50 the day before and after the storm. But those have gone extinct. Now they are just perfect track rainstorms. Lately when the pattern isn’t perfect it’s too warm.

I could show you dozens of examples of snowstorms with a similar look

That’s not going to happen…but if it did, mid Feb, with a cold N Amer profile, a block and 50/50, and a perfect track rainstorm…I have the final chapter of my book

Mdecoy knows

The pacific is really hostile around Feb 13-19 you’re right. But…there is a leftover cold regime and look at the Atlantic. We’re not just talking about some help. Look at that 50/50. If that Baja wave ejects into that…I don’t care what the pacific long wave pattern is that could work. Typically we’d be dead with that pac look but if that 50/50 presentation is close with the cold left over from the previous pattern this isn’t the typical setup.

Fringed with 2 feet

Euro and EPS is leaving too much energy back in Baja and washing out what’s left. Maybe. But if that’s wrong and a stronger wave comes out…it’s actually trended better with the blocking in front. Imagine if it didn’t leave the Baja energy behind and instead attacks this Atlantic setup with a healthy wave! I think the threat still exists. It’s not likely but anytime there is a setup with big potential I’ll pay attention. Sooner or later we have to get lucky.

Hmm I do hear what you’re saying. But I actually thought the long range guidance improves today in those regards. On the EPS and GEfS I saw signs the pacific was evolving to a workable less awful configuration with a poleward WPO ridge starting to link to ridge bridge to the AO and some troughing showing up near Hawaii again. That configuration is worlds different from the +400 anomalies just north of Hawaii we saw in recent years. Much less hostile impacts downstream imo. This doesn’t look that bad to me

@Stormchaserchuck1 the last 10 years a hostile EPO/PNA is a killer and been game over but historically that’s not always been true. We’ve had plenty of snowstorms without an EPO PNA ridge. But it depends on several things. 1) the antecedent thermal profile across N America. If the continent is torched it won’t work. 2) AO/NAO without blocking up top and a favorable Atlantic pattern it’s game over. 3) the depth of any PNA trough. Factors 1&2 can overcome a -1 PNA. If the PNA ends up -3.5 it’s probably game over. So I’m not saying you’re wrong but it’s not as simple as “we lots the EPO PNA game over”. If those 3 factors go our way we can still snow. But the last 10 Years everytime the pna went wrong everything else went wrong too. And if we did have some blocking help the PNA went some crazy -4 or something which is impossible to overcome, especially earlier in the season which some of those cases were. So curious…do you see wings the PNA is going so hostile, or that those other factors will also ne unfavorable…or are you ignoring everything else and just looking at the PNA. Because while the PNA has been a great single indicator recently it’s not always been that way and hopefully doesn’t continue to be because some of our best snowstorms came with a -PNA

I'm a gonna be greedy...I want BOTH

@Jersey Andrew but… I should add that 83 storm was a classic Nino STJ moisture bomb storm like Feb 2010 and Jan 2016. If we do get a MECS HECS storm it’s unlikely to have that level of STJ moisture feed. Even 96 didn’t. It had to snow for 36 hours to get those crazy totals in 1996. Our absolute top end is probably capped a little by the Nina. But we can definitely get VERY big snowstorms in a Nina.

Anytime we have blocking in February it’s possible. It’s true most HECS storms are in ninos but not all. Jan 96, Jan 2000 and Feb 2006 were all a Nina. And March 2018 was borderline HECS up here and that was a Nina.

personally I am fine with what the AIFS Ens show...because I am done with the part of winter where I am worried about getting minor snowfalls...it's time to go big or go home...I am exclusively big game hunting once we get into mid February on. So I would much prefer a 6" mean from a handful of 20" storms in the ensemble...than a 6" mean from a bunch of 6" storms. Give me some HECS lottery tickets and I'll take my chances.

They have had an issue with "follow the leader" but in this case their high snow mean is because about 1/3 of the members didn't follow the op and instead show a blizzard over PD weekend.

digging into the AIFS ens its mixed... so the mean went back way up...but the median is only about 2". The reason why is the mean is skewed by the fact that about 30% of the members are huge HUGE hits...like 1-2 foot snowstorms even using 10-1...legit PD3 storms. Classic east coast storm distribution look to them. But that's only 1/3. The rest have a much weaker system with either less snow like the AIFS op that showed 2-3"...and then there are about 40% that have no snow at all and a warmer solution. So the AIFS ens are saying we have a decent chance (like 30%) of a BIG snowstorm...but the most likely outcome is a smaller 1-3" type event.

I should start doing my "ensemble blend" method again...but I just haven't had time lately. But a few years ago when I did that...it worked pretty good and was fairly predictive of our chances...the one actual snow we got during the 2 months I did it was the one that showed above 50% odds from a week out. But it only worked from 5+ days out using 24 hours of ensemble runs...(which is 2 runs of the EPS and GEPS and 4 runs of the GEFS and it was weighted to give the EPS 2x more weight than the GFS and GEPS. If I did it again I would definitely add in the AIFS EPS and weight it similar to the EPS.

when does this begin?

So I am going to assume the snowfall aspect looked so good there was no need to talk about it anymore which is why all I see is wind chill discussions

yea I'm gonna drive up Sunday to ski Monday with the kids...looks to warm up pretty good by then but this weekend...too cold I think.

models are usually pretty volatile during pattern changes and we are kinda looking at ranges that are beyond where consistency is typical.

Damn I just saw the new rules for the main thread...if I post my venmo can I get about 10k so I can continue to contribute?

You must not come in our sub very often! lol

I'm so sorry this happened to her... just hope she doesn't get too discouraged and keeps at it. I am very sad for the market waiting many of our current students as they take their first steps. There are so many factors creating negative stress on the labor market right now...some self inflicted and some related to changes and innovation that we are going to have to face and deal with eventually. But its rough...but if she keeps at it eventually something will go her way.