psuhoffman

I was talking about grayhat

Here is the problem with what you’re doing. Yea…every single threat we identify at day 10 is likely to fail. And it’s not even close. Many of these we now are like 5-10% chances. So if you just follow climo and say it’s not gonna snow you’ll be right 90% of the time. But it also means you will miss every single time it does snow. You’ll never accurately identify the “threat” for snow. Think of it like a tornado watch. I’ve been under one maybe a hundred times. Only once did a tornado end up affecting me. Did they mean the other 99 were a mistake? No they were identifying the threat. If they went with climo theyd never issue a tornado watch and be right most of the time but catastrophically wrong when a tornado does hit! It’s also like sports. I could just say the Eagles won’t win the super bowl Every single year and I’d be right 95% of the time but what fun is that?

He is in southern Delaware. This next threat was never good for him. He is very transparent.

Yea for the lowlands to “win” in a thermal regime like this you’d need a true coastal track. The problem is the wave is de-amplifying as it hits the Atlantic flow. So I don’t see how that scenario is on the table. Ideally you’d want a weak wave initially that amplifies on the coast but that’s not on the table. The win for areas NW of 95 is a stronger wave to the west that transfers just in time. Maxes dynamic cooling to take advantage of the marginal cold we have. The reason that could work is there isn’t some deep phased trough to our west this time. There is a split flow with the NS out the FCKN way for once and a cut off system traversing under the NS flow. So there isn’t that screaming SW wind ahead of the wave to destroy our mid level thermals. A marginal cold can work here but the issue for SE is 95 is that because of the flow deamplifying we need a stronger wave to our west to get anything and that will wreck the low level thermals for coastal areas.

GFS is on Chucks team. It’s weaker with the flow and allows the pacific wave to gain too much latitude before transferring.

Except right now it’s not snowing for the opposite reason you said. But you don’t actually know enough or care enough for that to matter. For you all that matters is it’s not snowing. Not the why. Because you weren’t analyzing the specifics of this synoptic event you were just bitching about our unfavorable snow climo. And greyhat is a troll who is gaslighting everyone. You know how I know…he has made the same “mistake” a dozen times. He will take the warmest thermal plot he can find within 24 hours of a threat and post it. The warmest model in a cycle or a panel that’s 24 hours after the snow threat when it’s warmed up…and he keeps doing that! If it was an accident, if he just kept making mistakes because he is new, wouldn’t he sometimes accidentally post the coldest model or accidentally the right time? No…because he is doing it on purpose and acting like he is just some newb who can’t help it. And I’ve noticed he does it the most when It’s a storm that is worse for his area. This upcoming threat was never good for Delaware. Even if we get it to work out this is more a NW of 95 thing and so he is being a jackass and pissing in the pool because if he isn’t getting snow F everyone else. you both are transparent. He is a troll. You simply want snow and don’t care how or why and throw a tantrum when we go too long without it.

I don’t think this particular threat is high probability SE of 95. You’re right that area is in a double bind. Any stronger wave will initially try to gain latitude in the Midwest because there is some ridging there. It will get blocked by the Atlantic flow eventually but without arctic air in place not sure what the “Win” scenario for SE of 95 is. Even if things go the way we want it’s probably more a 95 NW threat. Even the snowier solutions were indicating that.

Yes it did. I was debating whether to say that or wait another run to see If it’s a blip

Id lean against it also, But I never right it was likely so maybe I’ve gone from giving it a 40% to a 20% chance. But the adjustment we need is still minor, a stronger pacific wave ejecting. How many times did we have a snow threat at 150 Hours and that trend hurt us by causing a more amped wave to trend north? It happens all the damn time, when we don’t want it to! Why can’t I happen when We need it? Because we are living in a simulation programmed by someone who was hurt in a past life my a mid Atlantic snow weenie and the whole purpose of this simulation is to inflict the maximum amount of emotional trauma on DC snow lovers.

We are still far enough out for that to adjust again. We need that Baja wave to eject stronger and the Atlantic flow to be slightly less suppressive. It wouldn’t take much, an adjustment well within a typical 150 hour error, but we’ve been so unlucky for so long that I think we juts assume nothing good will happen. Which given our climo is usually right. Snow here isn’t a “fair” game. There are like 10 major variables and we need almost all of them to go right. There are way more losing combinations than winning ones so every threat is more likely to fail. I mean even in the rare cases when we get the flow to be cold enough then we have to worry the storm gets squashed or goes south of us! But eventually if we keep playing we will roll the right combination and get lucky.

All the guidance has flipped places. The GEPS is now the most favorable and the Euro stuff the least.

Oz guidance across the board didn’t eject enough energy and trended more suppressive with the Atlantic look. Bad combo. Result is this. We need x to be where y is and stronger but that’s redundant because for it to be where y is it would have to be stronger.

Oz guidance across the board didn’t eject enough energy and trended more suppressive with the Atlantic look. Bad combo. Result is this. We need x to be where y is and stronger but that’s redundant because for it to be where y is it would have to be stronger.

This thread got weird. Chuck said it couldn’t snow this week because the pacific pattern would make it too warm. The problem we have right now is a combination of guidance trending towards a weaker wave that gets absorbed by the approaching larger scale pacific trough and a more suppressive Atlantic which squashes any weak energy that ejects ahead. If anything it’s the opposite problem of what Chuck was worried about. If that Atlantic low backed off some and a healthier wave ejects it looks cold enough until Monday. After that it starts getting problematic fast but the window over PD weekend is there IF a strong enough wave ejects and right now it looks like it might not Mitch we can’t trust anything bit if you want there to be a shot you want good solutions snowing up within the scope of all the guidance.

Gfs is ejecting more of the pacific wave and not absorbing it as much into the pacific NW trough. Thats a good step towards what we want

I think the true thaw lasts about a week and by the very end of Feb we’re tracking again. Keep in mind by then though a “typical” regime with snow chances will still be in the 40s or even 50s. We’re probably done with sustained cold after the next few days. Not saying we don’t get some truly cold days. But not weeks of it. But a regime wit a high of 45 when it’s sunny in March can be plenty cold enough to snow

I actually agree with this but without the crazy stupid 1960 comp Dude can’t just make a projection without comparing it to the most extreme example of what he is talking about.

18z AIFS was our win scenario. all ens guidance now shows this at day 5. This general idea seems locked in now The decaying nao block X has retrograded to Hudson Bay. There is a strong 50/50 feature Y from a strong wave that was forced under the retrograding block. The pacific wave Z is entering the southwest. The flow in front of it will prevent it from gaining too much latitude so long as it ejects quickly. Yes the pacific has gone to absolute shit. But because the antecedent pattern was good we have a window of opportunity here. We want a healthy wave to eject and as quickly as possible imo. The 18z AIFS did this. The 18z EPS looked like it was also but doesn’t go out far enough. But I’ll take this… the gfs products are washing more of the wave out and absorbing most of it into the approaching north pacific trough. This means a weaker delayed wave. that’s a loss BTW a “Hudson High” regime actually used to be a cheat code to a snowstorm here absent other features we typically look for PNA, NAO… historically I found numerous Baltimore snowstorms where a high there seemed to be the main feature and it snowed despite flaws elsewhere. But I’ve noted those have gone extinct recently and that some recent examples ended up slightly too warm and “perfect track rainstorms” A recent example was a storm around the Super Bowl in 2023 I think. This will be a good test to see if this can still work! Assuming a wave ejects.

It’s out. Targets central and southern VA the most but still a good number of hits up our way. It was a colder souther run than 12z. Same as the op.

It’s not a 60 day lag but yes what’s happening there has a downstream impact on us. The impact is much faster than 60 days.

Aifs trended colder too. Most of the misses are to the south not north.

There is a lag. I’m worried about CAPEs 18-20 window. I think that might end up too warm. I think we have a shot for the 15th threat if it ejects a healthy wave in time. The longer it waits the worse it gets.

The AI models don’t resolve those kinds of details well. They’re not trying to. They are good imo with the synoptic level setup. Track is major features. I wouldn’t worry about its thermals. This run was a snowstorm. Some of the past ones were rain and the funky snow map showed snow and I didn’t feel like arguing about it.

@Stormchaserchuck1 one thing though, legit point of contention, isnt what the nao is a few days before the storm more important than the day of? By then the tracks are set. So many of our storms the nao was near neutral the day of but was set up by a -nao leading up to the storm.

This was a colder run and legit snow. Some past runs were showing snow on the clown maps but had questionable thermals