I also wasn’t accounting for the timing difference. I was seeing the 50/50 retreating sooner but not factoring the wave was coming faster this run. They evened out.
You know…I was up in central PA during 2 previous winters with somewhat similar pattern and arctic cold and I was super dry for a month while down here was getting all the snow. The snow rides the boundary in thaw regimes and we ended up too far into the cold to get those cold boundary waves but not far enough north to get the pure arctic boundary waves. We have been in a dead zone.
I know, honestly when I post the snow maps it’s because I’m lazy and don’t have time to do a full breakdown of the real maps or answer the 50 questions you get if you just post a promising h5 plot without any editing and analysis.
Don’t worry we know that window is yours. Brooklyn just does quick drive byes he don’t read up. He probably only saw posts about PD in the last hour and figured he’d enlighten us.
It’s not quite as bad when it’s at least a red tag doing it. Some of the kids who post some model run 17 hours after it was discussed gets super annoying.
The AIFS eps has a known under dispersion issue. So when it’s good it can be very good. And then it flips to nothing a run later. Thats a flaw with its ens. Any well distributed ensemble system from 200 hours isn’t going to snow some super crazy signal because at that range there should be a lot of variance to the perturbations.