psuhoffman

HRRR at 24 hours is like the NAM at 84. Latest runs look more realistic. Unfortunately

Dundalk is the snow anus of Maryland. NPZ lives in the snow anus of VA in a shadow effect zone in the Shenandoah valley.

Nothing sadder than the Ellinwood gray

Thanks. But it wasn’t all her fault. Don’t want to give that impression. I didn’t appreciate what we had enough. I let things that didn’t matter take up too much of my time and energy. I put things on auto pilot and lost her. I don’t know why. Why I had to lose it to see what was really important. But when I get another chance at something special I won’t make that mistake again.

Feel better?

Damn man. Hats off to you. I can’t argue with a single thing in this post. And I’m a debate coach.

Ok so basically once a decade if we get super lucky and time up a moderate modoki nino with a solar minimum it can still snow.

There were cold weeks in 2016. We even had several storms suppressed. One 6-10” snow missed us to the south! We had that clipper with temps in the teens. It’s just December and the warm weeks the rest of the winter wiped out the cold in the means. But what Chuck is talking about is a pattern that would flood the US with pac puke and make it hard to get snow even if we did luck into a perspective coastal. That happened in 2024. The snow we got that winter ironically came during the 2 weeks that were acting like a Nina and we lucked into some weak ass boundary waves. The rest of the winter was warm and wet and the track and timing of storms didn’t matter because there was no cold anywhere.

Ok dude don’t take this the wrong way because everything you said is a very valid concern. I’m not necessarily disagreeing. But if a cold enso is dry. And a warm enso is too warm. WTF do you think we should be rooting for to get an actual snowy winter next year. And by snowy I don’t mean we fight and eek and some lucky locations end up 3” above average. I mean an actually snowy fucking winter where the whole area ends up 125%+ snowfall. You know like used to happen once in a while. Sorry vent over. But ya. I see your valid concerns but what the hell are we even rooting for? We used to get snowy winters in a -PDO once in a while. It’s not supposed to be impossible.

We’re not going to get shut out. I was probably too optimistic. I leaned into the “we’re due” index too much. Apparently we’re still cursed. But we’re not going a whole winter without at least one decent snowstorm with the predominant winter pattern being this good. Not perfect but this years underlying features look nothing like the really bad snowless winters.

That’s the one I’m thinking about. And I had that exact same thought. There was one other that wouldn’t have been as big but might have been a 2-4” type snow had it been a little colder. But it was just so warm all winter that even when a perfect track wave came along it didn’t matter.

I appreciate it. Really. Yea the situation is probably making it harder. I see her 3 or 4 times a week. Exchanges or things we do together for the kids. I kept the house because the kids love it here. We do things that she used to be a part of. Camping trips. Ski trips. The beach. It’s hard to move on from something when you’re surrounded by it. It also doesn’t help that she is an amazing mom and wonderful person. So it’s not like I can hate her. Thanks. Yea I’ve given up on waiting for it to get any easier. Just had to learn to cope with what it is. It’s not as bad as this is probably making it sound. Most of the time I’m fine. I’m not miserable all the time or anything. But that memory hit me. Had a rough moment I guess.

You trying to get me in trouble? Honest answer I don’t think this winter has much to do with the elephant in the room. Cold dry winters happened in the past. I still really doubt we manage to avoid snow completely but if we do it’s bad luck imo. However, when “the elephant” is making other winters worse. Winters where we might have lucked into 12” or 17” for the season in the past from some lucky perfect track just cold enough snowstorms in an otherwise mediocre pattern but now those are rain and so we end up with a winter with 3” or 6” total and so when we waste a cold one it feels even worse. 1997 was an example. The one good snowstorm I remember that winter (like 8” in northern VA) was from some perfect track wave in an otherwise warm period when temps where like 33 degrees during the storm and it was in the 50s on either side of it. Fast forward to 2023 There were a couple waves that took a perfect track that winger but it was just a little too warm. 36 degree rain. Was that a repeat or a 1997 type winter but now…maybe that one snowstorm is rain and that winter is almost totally snowless which adds to the frustration and then makes a cold dry winter even worse.

It’s ok. It’s not new. She left 4 years ago. I should be over it by now. ETA: ok that sounded pathetic. Most days aren’t so bad. But that reference brought up some really good memories which are bittersweet now.

They still do! They both ski now. We go sledding and play in the snow every storm. Unfortunately, I’m not still with their mom.

If we get a 30 day mean like that and it doesn’t snow at all it’s time for a new hobby

I don't remember that one as much...but...I was happily married at the time, and we both had 2 weeks off work...so I was...umm....busy

Just reading that makes me feel like I need second hand therapy

Not only that...but when that threat in early March failed he said it "ruined the winter"

It's complicated in a comparatively simplistic way

Oddly enough once the snow stops he doesn't care. He will complain 3 days after a HECS though if there is nothing else to track on the models

Cold dry winters were always a thing.... but it hurts that much more when 80% of our winters are warm now...we can't afford to waste cold ones.

This... the trough is there on our big storm composite look...which as you say is why our big storms tend to come at the end of cold periods and are usually followed by moderation...because the trough there temporarily creates the perfect longwave configuration for a big amplification along the east coast but also leads to warmer air invading the CONUS shortly after...but it doesn't necessarily always have to torch or the warmup doesn't have to last...depends how things evolve from there. But if we do finally get a big snowstorm I'm gonna hit the first person who says "But it all melted a week later" over the head with a tack hammer.

So this is actually pretty darn close to what the composite looked like for the analogs I used for my winter forecast. But the snowfall results through mid January were better across those analogs. This isn't bad...yes its a dry look...we're on the backside of the trough, its definitely not perfect. But predominantly -AO/NAO, a poleward pacific ridge, not a crazy hostile PNA for a change...this isn't a shutout look.

I still think eventually we get some decent snow. But we have had a workable to somewhat favorable longwave pattern most of the winter season and have thus far largely wasted it. It's very frustrating.