psuhoffman

no one is forcing you to read the stuff you don't like

I didn't just use the numerical index, when I looked at each event I looked at the 5/3/1 days loading patterns and adjusted if the numerical index was obviously misleading. NAO had to be adjusted a lot when a block in the western NAO domain was cancelled out by heights in the eastern NAO domain which isn't relevant to our pattern as much. It would erroneously show up as a neutral or positive NAO when in fact there was an NAO block.

I can do that someday, not going to do that tonight lol. But the issue is ridges are becoming more significantly anomalous. So you won't see as many crazy anomalies in the past because they didn't exist as much. We are seeing more and more positive anomalies now...which yea makes it harder to overcome a hostile pacific...which is why we aren't snowing as much!

Correct I fixed it, we did have 15 snowstorms with 3 of 4 indexes hostile but none with all 4. Sorry...good catch

Edit.... my bad, I had an error that I just fixed. So... there were no warning events with all 4 indexes hostile...HOWEVER...there were 15 warning events with 3/4 of the indexes hostile. That is a significant amount of our snowfall! Additionally, historically the AO/NAO was more important that the pacific. We only had 18 warning snowstorms with a hostile AO/NAO help but we had 35 warning snowstorms with a hostile PNA pattern! This has flipped recently, in the last 10 years the pacific has dominated in a way that is not historically normal, and is very problematic because historically arctic pattersn driven by huge EPO/PNA ridges are NOT the way we get snowy pattersn, they are typically cold/dry patterns. Our snowiest patterns used to be -AO/NAO driven with a flawed pacific...this would direct pacific waves into the west and then would then run into the compressed flow over the east and be forced under us and it would be just cold enough to snow. Think 2010. That's our snow look. Not some huge EPO/PNA ridge where our flow is right off the arctic and its just cold...but dry because there are no pacific waves everything is diving down the backside of the eastern trough...we just saw what that typically looks like the last 3 weeks!

There were several examples in February, most notably one in mid Feb 1997 that was a 6-8" snowfall across Maryland in what was an otherwise god awful pac puke pattern. There were a couple examples in March also. Actually seems there was a pretty even distribution with one in November and a couple December events...January did have the most with 4. But a lot of those fringe season ones were a LONG time ago so... Here is an amazing stat....15/88 warning snows happened when 3/4 indexes were wrong! Now Chuck is trying to convince us if one of 4 or 2 of 4 factors are bad...its game over, which lately it has been...but he also says we shouldn't think anything has changed. Below is the index breakdown of all of Baltimores warning snowfalls from 1948-2019 and you can see there are quite a few where 1 or even 2 of the indexes are hostile including plenty of hostile EPO/PNA patterns. Obviously there was MORE snow when everything was good...but it wasn't as radically necessary to have a perfect pattern historically as it has been lately where if one or two things go wrong the whole thing goes to hell in a hand basket fast! EPO/PNA/AO/NAO - - - - 16 + + - - 13 - + - - 11 + - - - 10 - - + + 9 + + + + 6 - + + + 3

Thank you, that was very informative...and also incredibly depressing. Implies, as I feared, some of the pacific issues we are having are more than just "its cyclical and we will break out of it". Don't get me wrong there are moving parts here and some of it is cyclical, we most definitely are in a -PDO cycle which is making some of it worse...but the theory here seems to be a la nina base state in the north pacific is the result of longer term changes related to the elephant. I've heard it before, makes sense...and is depressing. I have some questions regarding arctic amplification and any possible benefits. I think it's possible that when things go good...they could go VERY good...hence years like 1996, 2003, 2010, 2014. But there is a statute of limitations to how far that effect can last in a warming base state. For example, we are seeing mid level ridges linking up with high latitude ridges more and more...at some point that will simply be the normal every time and the benefit of high latitude ridging will be negated once troughs are no longer forced to cut under and everything simply amplifies into huge full latitude ridges and troughs. That isn't good even when we get under the troughs since a full latitude trough is typically just cold and dry and trasient. That's why i scream when someone breaks out a 1993 analog from 15 days out because the pattern that produced 1993 superstorm can do that...but 99.9% of the time that kind of full latitude trough/ridge configuration is simply a cold front and a few days of cold dry. Sure we could see more super massive storms but most of the time we will just see more warm/wet cold dry winters....heavy on the warm...is my guess. Also... does arcic warming really help if the whole base state is warmer? It's not really the warmth in the arctic that helps us its the flow created by a ridge there and how it compresses the mid latitude flow under it. If it's simply warmer up top does that do the same thing to the same extent? EHH? I don't know I am asking. Just spit balling what some of the implications of what I read would be for us. I see some ways in which it could help...could...but I see a LOT of ways in which it is already tangibly hurting us so...not thrilling lol

Preview: he can’t

A Hudson high acts to compress the flow in a way similar to a block! It’s why there is a whole subset of snows I found when breaking them down that look a lot like (looks up) THAT! Problem is they’ve gone extinct lately! This setup used to work a lot! Lately they seem to all end up warm or north. But I guess we can roll the dice again. Had to work eventually right?

Like I said to CAPE NW loses its advantage if it’s too warm when it’s warm! When it’s truly cold the odds of a wave hitting here v DC or Richmond is pretty even. I used to her more (and state college) because it used to snow in bad patterns a lot more up here. I can list sooo many 3-5” snows during pac puke warm regimes that were rain for 95. Those have gone away, hence our advantage is significantly muted. Not gone. I still her more. But recently the spread between here and CAPE isn’t as big as it once was. Same phenomenon is affecting state college. You have to get up into New England to get steady snows doing bad patterns now.

I don’t think the phenomenon is purely Nina. You’re right WRT average places SE or 95 are doing better. But the issue is the season places NW had an advantage wasn’t in cold patterns. When it’s arctic cold the odds of you getting snow are actually similar to me! I might eke out slightly more from upslope but it’s negligible. The reason I average so much more is because I’m supposed to have a HuGE advantage RIGHT NOW! Today is supposed to be a rainstorm for 95 and a 3-4” snow up here. The advantage here is in bad patterns we eke out snows that 95 SE can’t! But the last 10 years those aren’t happening. In bad patterns it’s so warm lately they don’t work! So we snow the same amount as you when it’s cold and we don’t snow at all just like you when it’s warm.

I think that was another where I got a slight accumulation but noted in my head “what happened this should have been 3-5” why was it 34 degree slop” Was discussing this with @HighStakes the other day. He notices it too. Recently things that used to break into these little wet snow events up here are 35 degree rain. We’ve noticed so many examples the last 10 Years it’s kinda hard to keep sticking our head in the sand, especially when it coincides with our snowfall suddenly declining!

So you think it’s a coincidence that our snowfall has been declining at a proportional rate perfectly correlated to our temperature increase over the last 100 years. We don’t need some long winded anecdotal BS where you cherry pick a low snowfall period (like the 1950s) to THINk you proved something because you project your own stupidity and lack of comprehension of short term variability within long term trends. I realize all of that went over your head because you’re a moron. We don’t have to debate that part, we all know you’re a moron since we’ve seen your posts for years. So just answer yes or no.

@CAPE I have my own records for 21 years and used a local coop to put together Manchester snow stats going back 70 years. We’ve had more under 20” winters in the last 10 years than we did in the 60 years before! Getting less than 20” used to be unheard of up here, a once every 15 year thing, now it happens every other winter! Similar to how getting less than 10” was once a rare thing in Baltimore and now happens commonly. Looking at my snow data the obvious culprit up here is there used to be a ton of 32-33 degree wet snows from storms that were all rain in DC/Baltimore. Most weren’t huge. A lot of 2-5” type things. I remember some. One was a 3.5” storm in Feb 2013 very similar to this. No cold. Pac puke pattern. Highs near 50 that week. Some weak wave slid by with like .45 qpf and it flipped to 33 degree snow and we got 3.5” of wet slop. Only up on the ridge. Even in town for only 2 and Westminster like 1”. Nothing south of there. Super marginal. This strikes me as the same exact type thing only slightly warmer so…I’m 34.7 right now and raining! Those little 33 degree 3-4” wet snows are missing and there why suddenly my bad winters up here are 17” instead of 27”

This area up here can, or at least used to, snow in some pretty nefarious setups. It’s why I averaged 40 and DC only 15! I don’t think I average 40 anymore. Maybe 35 now. It’s finally affecting up here now too!

Maybe you’re right I was mostly focused on this area up here. But there were examples recently for 95. One in 2021. Around the super Bowl. Perfect track little wave. I eeked out 6” of super wet snow up here and 95 was 34-35 during the heavy precip with white rain. They were in the cold sector. The boundary was juts 1-2f too warm. That was better example for 95. This one is a lost snow for up here

It depends where. Even in 1970 this was unlikely to be much snow south of DC and SE of the fall line. But even with this weaker low solution it’s close enough for places like Resiterstown, Frederick, Westminster, Parkton… I think it’s frankly a no brainer that these areas lost some snow. Was it 1” or 3” I dunno. But it’s so close that any colder at all would have made a difference. And we know it was colder. I don’t think it’s that complicated. And we know we are losing snow. The numbers bear it out. Our snowfall is declining. So we know for a fact we’re losing some storms. This one seems like a no brainer at least for my area. My wet bulb is 33. I’m going to he raining with a boundary layer of 33-34 for like 5 hours doing which about .3 qpf falls. That’s so marginal any colder at all and I’d be getting 2-3”. Maybe I do get 2” it’s close, but then any colder and it would have been 4”! Either way I am losing some snow today because it’s warmer. Because this is a perfect example of a borderline temp event where it’s going to tip barely too warm in 2026 and so likely would have tipped cold enough at some point in the past. I dunno if that point is 2000 or 1970 or 1950 or 1930 but at some point this would have been snow, at least up here.

The sounding is from 6pm. This would have always had to start as rain with the boundary temps. But places NW of the fall line in MD definitely would have had 2-3” of snow if it was 50 years ago. Up here I might eke out 1” maybe and it could have been 3-4” if it was 2f colder.

This is my sounding Chuck. STF up about the PNA because with the pna it’s going to be 33-35 during the rain. And it’s warmed 2f since 1970. This would have been a 3-4” snow event 50 years ago. The PNA isn’t the problem the problem is the boundary has warmed 2 degrees and right now it’s 2 degrees too warm! That has nothing to do with the pna. This ended up being a perfect example for my book. A storm we lost due to warming.

I want my 2 degrees back damnit!

It’s JB come On

But I don’t think our luck has changed. We always missed more than won with those. We need multiple things to come together and usually 1 or 2 factors F it up. And we say what if. But you can do that with everything. Look at 2010? What if that second Feb 9 storm doesn’t phase as fast. That’s a rare example when a phase capture on a miller b happened flawlessly. What if the Dec 2009 storm didn’t phase? The only storm that winter that was clean and simple was the Feb 5 one. We easily could have missed the other 2! Luck in cold patterns is what it is. We win some we lose some. We haven’t had a cold Nino in a long time so it’s hard to say we’re getting unlucky. We need to see what happens when we time up a -AO with a El Niño! If we manage not to snow then it’s uh oh! Where we are definitely losing now is marginal temp events. Even up here they are breaking warm more!

So serious analysis. It’s close. Boundary temps are the only issue. Places NW of 95 in MD are at 34-35 during the height of the storm with .25-.35 qpf across guidance now. If the storm were to amp say 2mb deeper and that became .5 qpf it would be enough to flip to a 1-3” snow. 4mb and .75 qpf and its a 3-5” wet snow! It’s that close. The track is perfect. But our temps are torched at the surface so we need a stronger storm to max dynamic cooling 2 degrees more than current progs. How likely is this? 10-20%. Getting that amount of error isn’t unlikely but unfortunately it’s more likely to be in the other direction. Models have a slight over amp bias and a +qpf bias. So we’re rooting for a bust that goes the opposite way or typical errors! Not impossible. There have been examples. It’s not totally dead. But it’s on life support and we need some world class surgeon to swoop in and perform a miracle surgery.

Thanks. Ya we’ve noted this too. I tried to fire out wha it was but it’s as if they set the freezing temp to 35 instead of 32 or something. It defaults anything close to snow.

There is still a wave around the 24 and it’s close. It’s a little north on most guidance but given season trends don’t mind that