uofmiami

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Rt 110 in Melville on Channel 7 now for flooding. Looks like flooded businesses and stuck cars. NW Suffolk and N Nassau got nailed. 

Yep radar estimate shows it well and matches up with my two stations in NE Nassau.  Muttontown with 4.93” and Syosset with 3.86”

Looks like I’ll end up with around 4” in Syosset and 5” in Muttontown when this is done shortly.  Had stronger winds in Tuesday’s storms but I expected that. 

4.74” in Muttontown & 3.72” in Syosset. Highest gusts at both is 29mph.

4.07” in Muttontown now, 3.21” in Syosset.

3.58” in Muttontown & 2.98” in Syosset now.

Looks like a deformation band is just setup over E Nassau/W Suffolk as Elsa starts to move away from us. Too bad this isn’t a winter storm, haha. 2.97” in Muttontown & 2.49” in Syosset so far from t-storms and Elsa. 

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Very heavy downpour here in SW Suffolk with flash flooding developing. Due to the tropical nature of the rainfall, the radar is underestimating the rate of rainfall here. The echoes in orange are more like a red summer thunderstorm. 

OKX should put radar to VCP 121 but they haven’t. 

Just now, bluewave said:

A 594 dm ridge in mid July means upper 90s to around 100°. But the Euro has plenty of cloud cover in the forecast. Not sure if it’s too pessimistic or there is just so much moisture from all the rain and high dew points in the East?

Seems to have the warmest 850 temps N of us too, as has been the pattern it seems.

Elsa looks like a TS from recon, NHC jumped the gun based on wind report from Barbados.

Looks like 95 for the high in Muttontown & Syosset today.

13 minutes ago, psv88 said:

I dont think the park has recorded a temp 97 or above in like 10 years...

Tmagan says nearly six years since it last happened!

24 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Work in progress? It's dead wrong. 

Did anyone read the article?  I haven't followed this model, but it allegedly gave lead times of a month on the Texas outbreak etc.  They also stated the model at times is wrong, case in point.  So it's a work in progress.  If anyone wants to follow it, as it's in development with RSMAS & funding from NOAA, they can.

22 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

hmm

Obviously a work in progress.  I wouldn’t be making critical decisions based off it that’s for sure. 

Came across this article in the Miami Magazine, on the SubX long range model (1-4 weeks out).  Ben Kirtman, who helped with NMME model is in charge of this new model.

https://magazine.miami.edu/features/2021-spring/subseasonal-experiment-subx.html

Here’s one link to the model:

http://wxmaps.org/subx_custom.php

95 for Muttontown & 94 for Syosset, so far.  Currently 93/77 w/108 HI in Syosset & 93/70 w/101 HI in Muttontown.

92 for the high today in Muttontown & Syosset!

48.7 in Muttontown & 50 in Syosset for lows.  Low of 72 here in Orlando, looking forward to landing in the crisp weather later today.

55 this morning for the low, refreshing!

93 (92.7) for the high in Muttontown & 92 (92.3) in Syosset.  Currently 91-92 still. 

Already 91 at both my stations, Muttontown & Syosset. 

90 in Muttontown & Syosset today.