GBOVolz
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Everything posted by GBOVolz
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Look at the total QPF and ratio that. If nothing changes and the mods are right, it is not far fetched to see numbers that high as of now. .
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Absolutely praying for you. .
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What? Seriously? Bro I’m so sorry. Where do you live and what do you do, like to do? .
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Not taking anything away from them, the CMC might end up being right and they pull a victory with a 5% chance. However at this point in time they are wish casting. What I do not understand with what they are doing is their audience wants snow in their backyard, I get it. But most of all there credibility is more important than predicting snow in their area that never happens using a mod that has a low output percentage and that mod is pretty much on an island by itself right now. .
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They are so triggered that an hour ago they used the CMC as their lead mod to prove to their viewers that the system is trending north. .
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Is the blue line the mod average for snow? What’s the green line? .
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There’s almost a 10 degree difference in my temps than there’s. That’s scary. Lol .
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Is anyone else like me?…. When you have one massive run for a snowstorm, you kinda quit looking at the mods after that? [emoji1787] .
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[emoji1787] .
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I don’t know, but the tweet they made was just like 10 minutes ago. It may be that they’re avoiding today’s mods lol .
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Not everyone agrees with a SE solution. These guys are in the Ohio Valley region, so maybe this is Clickbait for their subscribers. .
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Pretty rare for a amped up storm to trend south isn’t it? .
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We are in that timeframe where the euro kinda loses its mind for a couple runs. .
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Miller B’s put me in a fetal position, overrunning events are not far behind Miller B’s for me. .
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AIFS on pivotal? .
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At this point, we need it to be pretty much where it’s at. The lesser of two evils is a suppressed storm at this stage. .
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I feel pretty confident that as long as we don’t see a cutter,IMO, we should not have temperature issues. .
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So I asked Mike Witcher about the AI mods. He said the euro AI will initiate the same as the euro OG but the AI mod leans heavily on climatology and that’s why we are seeing a cutter from it. He said as of now he feels like this is a snow event for East Tennessee, except for the southern Valley, which might get warm nose a little. .
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I haven’t read much about the AI mods… what calibrations did they make to the euro AI for it to show a different scenario from the original euro? Do we know? .
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Question… obviously the GFS/Euro use past events to help with modeling. Does the AI mods get samples from the GFS/Euro or is its algorithm separate from its originals. The reason I’m asking this is because we have had a lot of cutters since the AI mods have been out which would make sense why those are showing cutters now assuming they do not get past event samples from the original mods. .
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A little late but we had a nice sleet/grapple shower about midnight last night up here at our cabin in PF. Our place has a tin roof, so i thought WW3 had started. [emoji1787] .
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Sorry I screwed all that up. Ugh… .
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