wthrmn654

Google models look to mainly stay offshore then go up coast in various ways to. https://www.weathernerds.org/models/genc.html?&inittype=zoom&initfield=SST_Anomaly_Surface&initcycle=determine&initfhour=120&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=630&initrange=55.000000000000:230.000000000000:20.000000000000:300.000000000000&initcx1=NaN&initcy1=NaN&initcx2=NaN&initcy2=NaN&initcross=False&initsound=False&initsoundx=429&initsoundy=291&initloop=True&initoverlay=False&initlstart=000&initlend=360&initlint=6&initol1=SST_Anomaly_Surface&initol2=null&initol3=null&initol4=null&initol5=null&initcities=Off&inithgwys=Off&inittracks=On&initlows=On&initlatlon=Off

Extremely dry can lead to extreme run off until the ground gets moist enough to absorb rain.

Funny no one's talking about the 12z euro ai run...... Doesn't come to shore anywhere it lingers south until the high to north weakens and comes to the north east around 983 mb close to long island...

It will though be a wet storm so that's basically a given

Something I don't think anyone has talked about/ mentioned but this L has been tracking against guidance, nearly due west since at least 18z yesterday... i mean just look at the actual track versus modeling at 18z with each x. Being 00,06,12z actual placement...... this will likely dictate storms overall intensity the closer to Florida it gets along with all the islands is gotta cross. With 12z runs showing this likely a TS possibly barely a Cat 1 maximum strength wise

And possibly bring threats further north depending how long it stalls.

Found Google ai tropical cyclone models page, with plots and interactive for anyone interested. Make sure you click the menu menu button top left to turn on or off more settings pots etc. https://deepmind.google.com/science/weatherlab

For comparison, 6z and 12z for humberto Not going lie, there is deft looks like less of a curve towards Bermuda. If anything further west before it turns.

Gefs, 6z versus 12z

Oh, and the consensus tracks shifts way west at 12z. Of which will likely play a big part in the invest future plan of attack For humberto

Let's not forget, the ai models did very very good with Erin ultimate track, hinting at it far sooner then the other models and was pretty accurate, same with the icon ironically..... not sure it anything right now though.

Euro ai has it stalled roughly long enough the the high to the north weakens and moves east, allowing it to come up the coast, unfortunately close to the north east.... And, Yes the Carolinas potentially get very bad conditions at is closest approach.

12z euro ai is quite remarkable! Wow! Doesn't make landfall, putters around in the ocean then comes up the east coast passing roughly, just south east of the 40°,70° mark...

Gefs,imo doesn't look like much of anything and the storm kinda vanishes with the one to the east surviving going towards Bermuda... am I seeing it wrong or no?

Reminder, this link give you an interactive and interactive map of hurricane and invests, and can plot every single model run guidance wise. Can all be overlayed as well. The first product is one being referenced https://vlab.noaa.gov/web/osti-modeling/hfip/products

With the name Karen on the list, we better make it to K or what a waste of a season and name lol

I got shafted! 0.30 inches but 55 mph winds

There's already conspiracy crap getting spread already about chimney being leveled and seized omg.. so messed up https://www.wcnc.com/article/weather/hurricane/helene/chimney-rock-bulldozed-helene/275-54741b10-7482-4116-ac38-98bff585b6e6?fbclid=IwY2xjawFsDPdleHRuA2FlbQIxMQABHfxxjGk7oqZ8zF2LE8T78psoc2bwdsadtQ1rQUf_lZqvhdXO8KXN-FMZOA_aem_QLmVj1I5Wm44V8JdpUYEdQ

At this point if whatever it is hits and comes say where Helene went it won't take much to cause more destruction, especially rain fall at this point imo..

Yeah but if there's water with no wind, for salt areas it's just a flood, add wind to that, u got wave action. When water is moving or crashing it's 10 time more destructive then say water coming up from crazy high tide but not really any wind.

Did you watch the video? I forgot to mention flooded river from Helene

The new york mets win AND clinch a postseason position!

In these times sometimes a little laughter is best. Here's a video that is sure to make anyone smile/ chuckle a little. Hippo floating down a river flooded by Helene! https://www.facebook.com/share/v/WjphK9BPAP3mof89/

1000 people un accounted for sadly! praying thats lack of communication