Baum

it would only make sense that the model that was most consistent showing an event would jump ship once a few other models got on board....

bummer man...he delivers.....

Welp. Still hope this AM i see. I'm going to enjoy this final week of winter..personally.

there is no next. I suggest you say a prayer . This is it.

There ya go!

there is an 8"-12" storm lurking....even in the worst of winters............

if it's the 18Z NAM that's exactly what you want to see.

isn't that a can't miss?

^ at some point you would think this two year pattern of weak sheared events that fade as they get near would end........maybe this is the pattern breaker. Got to end at some point.

THE ECMWF SUITE OF GUIDANCE HAS BEEN THE MOST CONSISTENT WITH THIS THREAT, WHICH CONTINUED ON THE 00Z CYCLE, INCLUDING GOOD ENSEMBLE SUPPORT. PREVIOUS HOLDOUT GFS SUITE TRENDED STRONGLY TOWARD THE ECMWF WITH THE 00Z CYCLE. THE MEAN SOLUTION OF THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES BRINGS ITS BROAD SNOW SWATH OVER THE CWA, WITH THIS LIKELY BEING FROM A DEVELOPING DEFORMATION AREA BASED ON THE GENERAL ENSEMBLE MEMBER SURFACE LOW PLACEMENT. ....LOT AM AFD on the potential. If 12Z holds might be thread time.

huh?

glad I checked in. Let's get this done, and I'll take the early spring. Euro stays on course...who starts the thread?

^ i have no issue with an ealry spring meaning consistent 50's and 60's beginning in March. But it never works out that way...climo, I guess.

never works that way.

a combination of both. Had to wonder over here after the gut punch from today's models....

always happens eventually...in fact, had a storm / event thread each of the past 2 weeks....

cluster**** should be in part of our next storm thread title.

prediction: the 18Z NAM still won't matter in the new decade.

low point.

at this point I'm all in on "fantasy range big dogs"

^ agreed. and folks have a great new year!

initial take; it's too far south

^ famous last words

Still remember the warmth of Christmas 1982, and the record breaking cold one year later on Christmas. Appears the new Christmas sweater will have to wait...same as my snowblower a few years back. Merry Christmas all!

It's Alaska's year. Not Cedar Rapids.