anthonymm
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Everything posted by anthonymm
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Central park's average is 30". If you use the older climo then it's like 25". Still though, even just a December with at least 5" is very strongly correlated to the total snow for the season.
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Any reason why winters in the tristate area show their cards in December? December snowfall is pretty much the biggest indicator of whether the rest of the winter will be snowy or not. Very few low snow Decembers result in a good winter, and almost all snowy December result in snowy january-februaries.
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It does not want to precipitate when its cold now. I don't know why that is the case. The pattern as he said for the last 7 years has been that it's either warm and very wet or cold and dry.
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Agreed, but the reversion is rather extreme. I mean c'mon: 2021-2022: 17.9" 2022-2023: 2.3" 2023-2024: 7.5" 2024-2025: 12.9 " (despite the sustained cold). That streak is more anomalous in my opinion than the snowy 2010s pattern.
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We always find ways to avoid getting snowstorms in the 2020s. It's like nature is overcorrecting massively for the snowy 2000s-2010s. I really think no matter what kinda 500 mb pattern we get we aren't gonna get a >30" winter for the next few years.
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The uhi is just relentless honestly. Our first frost dates are always at least a month later than the burbs. Luckily it doesn't seem to impact snow totals.
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The low dews are a god send. Any dew above 60 should be criminalized
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Downtown jersey city. The closer you are to Manhattan the more intense the UHI is. I doubt Manhattan dropped below 62.
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Just move down to the city. I don't know what all the ruckus about cold is about, we didn't drop below 60 here in the city. We probably won't get our first frost until December either lol
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UHI keeping me toasty here. Didn't even drop below 60 I think. Fall in the city is always delayed by a solid month due to pesky concrete.
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I dont know who that is. I have very poor heat tolerance though. May-October here sucks imo
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Agreed. If you're not in the shade and there's 0 clouds anything above 70 or so feels quite hot
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Yea I think this stuff about low sun angle heat not feeling bad is pure cope. Hot is hot, and anything above 85 is way too hot. I'd be surprised if we dont roast come mid September as payback for this nice August
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This 100%. We never get cool downs "for free". It's always one slightly below normal month followed by 2-3 blowtorches right after. I'm expecting a torchy fall.
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Watch us get a freak 90 last week of Sept or first week of Oct.
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We're absolutely not done with 90s. Why are people forgetting it can be hot as hell in September?
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And yet we still couldn't make it happen. The odds are so stacked against snow now it's kinda insane.
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I take it ultra warm winters like 11-12, 15-16, 19-20, 22-23, 23-24 were more or less unprecedented before this era no? It's not just that though. 21-22 and 24-25 were decently cold/seasonable, we just can't buy a big storm or frequent moderate storms anymore :/. Sucks and makes me want to move up north to VT or something.
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This. I think we're cooked until the western pac stops boiling. Has there been a single extreme -pdo type winter that ended up good for us??
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Whatever needs to happen to give us a mild/snowless winter is pretty much guaranteed to happen.
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Any reasons you think the pattern has turned to levels of garbage for snowfall literally never seen before? After 2018-2019 it seems like something changed abruptly. Since then the only good winter month snow-wise for nyc was february 2021.
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Lol yeah so more coating to 3 inch events like last year, except even less likely since there's no way its gonna be as cold as last winter.
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+PNA seems to be the most important pattern for big snow in the tristate at least. -EPO got us effing nothing last winter. Also need the subtropical jet to not be suppressed to oblivion
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So 25-26 is dead in the water. Nice. Crazy the snow dropoff that has occured since 19-20. Really only one good winter since then, or really only one good month (Feb 2021).
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I'm not so sure. Usually when we've gotten these cool stretches in August, September reminds us it's still summer. CPC's also going above for our area in September. I think we probably do get a mini heatwave, maybe 1-2 days of 90 with a bunch of upper 80 days.
