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LordBaltimore

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Everything posted by LordBaltimore

  1. LordBaltimore
    Seems like every model pretty much has a bimodal distribution of members OTS vs nearby, with significant uncertainty, and the deterministics are just honing in on different peaks of that distribution
  2. LordBaltimore
    If the GFS wins here by some miracle I don't ever want to hear people badmouthing it ever again. And that includes myself
  3. LordBaltimore
    Really hoping the weekend threat materializes. I carved a set of snow/ice/sleet steps into the hill that leads down to my parking spot, and a meltdown two weeks from now without some fluff to insulate it would be a critical hit to my personal infrastructure
  4. LordBaltimore
    TERRAIN! TERRAIN! PULL UP! PULL UP!
  5. LordBaltimore
    I think you indirectly hit on something many people discover in their 20's. No, it is not enjoyable to track a storm every model run for 7 straight days. It's an obsession. But you don't become an expert in anything without being at least a little bit obsessed. And in that fact lies a trade off. Is this for fun, or is it something you dedicate your life to for it's own sake? Everyone makes that choice on their own
  6. LordBaltimore
    Question for mets. What factors here determine the extent of the precip shield? Seems rather narrow on GFS for low that deep
  7. LordBaltimore
    More than that. If it were physically possible to pull a Tonya Harding on an atmospheric feature to get more snow I would do it with no remorse
  8. LordBaltimore
    HRRR says 850 winds die down sometime between 1-4am so hoping that's when temps start dropping out
  9. LordBaltimore
    This is why AI will never be able to predict snow totals. The dataset is awful
  10. LordBaltimore
    they were accounting for slantsticking
  11. LordBaltimore
    HRRR says we get to 4 below and who am I to question our flagship CAM
  12. LordBaltimore
    just want to see some snow on snow action here. Even if it's a 2-4" type deal
  13. LordBaltimore
    if you drive 5 miles south of Norfolk to the Great Dismal Swamp you can see alligators in the summer. Sorry for banter
  14. LordBaltimore
    Can't say for sure but if you want something interesting to look out check this out: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ofs/ofs_mapplots.html?ofsregion=cb&subdomain=0&model_type=wtemp_forecast The bay is very cold right now and places below 30 on that map are where freezing is imminent
  15. LordBaltimore
    LFG! Makes me feel like I'm 15 again. Snowpack for weeks and weeks
  16. LordBaltimore
    I would give all my snow to see that as painful as that trade would be. That's a once in a lifetime kinda thing I believe. Never seen it in my life at least
  17. LordBaltimore
    GFS and Euro suggests at least 5-6 nights where subzero temperatures are a possibility in the DMV. Will be fun when these come into range for high res models If anyone in the area can get calm wind overhead the bottom could easily fall out
  18. LordBaltimore
    You need cohesion between flakes. That's why warm snow is best. Sleet just falls apart. Back in the day we'd just dig caves into whatever piles people plowed onto the side of the road
  19. LordBaltimore
    Betting odds on OPM closed Tuesday? Gonna need a bit to bounce back from this allnighter
  20. LordBaltimore
    Up to 4.25" and best rates of day
  21. LordBaltimore
    3" on the dot in Columbia
  22. LordBaltimore
    HRRR has been showing pure rain along and east of 95 at the very tail end of the storm for the past few runs. Imagine it's overblown but hoping that doesn't get anywhere close to verifying
  23. LordBaltimore
    getting out of that subsidence zone really changed the game. Should be able to at least match expectations
  24. LordBaltimore
    Very heavy rates for past 30 minutes or so. Predominantly spikes and plates, no huge individual flakes but plenty of aggregates
  25. LordBaltimore
    Jeb, you ever think about how even 80 years from now when everyone posting here is dead and gone, people will still be taking walks named after you lol Snow picking in Columbia, on the verge of measurable now on most surfaces
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