I must say Wonderdog that I didn't think todays 12z GEFS looked all that troubling. Not KU set up perfect but If I am seeing it right we never go much above normal temps and have windows below normal...that window looks cracked for NYE to maybe the 5th as WxUSAF says...since most of our winter weather comes in small windows most years anyway really cant complain...... assuming I am not off my rocker in looking at the most basic aspects such as 850 temp anomaly and h5 anomaly.
That’s the part that worries me. We can get cold even really cold but establishment of cold is the long pole in the tent. Regardless, it’s nice to be at the stadium parked and tailgating ready for the game ...instead of being stuck in traffic.
Roger. My biggest take away from that run was there is cold around on our side of the planet if that is even nearly correct it’s real cold. So I am optimistic. If this was the cake we were baking that would be the flour.
And that h5 pattern looks to continue as the run progresses. That is a solid high up there. This looks really good to me. It should keep us cold if nothing else. I hope I am right about this enthusiasm
The truth is 0z could bring total destruction. Even the best analysis is only as good as the data being analyzed. No one will reassure you. We are all alone on this wretched journey called winter where despair and peril lurk around every 6 hour corner.