bncho

holy flop lmfao

hmmmmmm

Jan 18 onwards looks cold. Jan 14-15 IMO has the pieces but we need a larger +PNA ridge.

the end of the GFS was going to be something

barney is coming to town!

GFS slowly but surely trending better...

It was always January 15 and onwards.

It has always been mid month. People talk about can kicks but it’s just them getting impatient lol

What an amazing meteorologist.

One of your best posts… and you’re right. That wave rode along that thermal boundary and dropped 0.7-1” of QPF across the area. The thermal boundary would have been much more forgiving around Dec 15 and it would have been more or less snow/mix for most of us.

I leave this place for ONE hour and I find Ji is the most positive in the room.

lots of big hits on the GEFS, probably why the snow mean is so high

16th onwards. 4 day snow mean below

Major improvement on the snow mean on the GEFS, FWIW.

Mitch West is one of the few people who doesn't over hype meteorology, but with all the other channels with the clickbait titles and thumbnails, he essentially had two choices: lose to the competition or garner more views to keep up. And of course he chose the latter. So while yes, the meteorology space is damaged due to clickbait and overhype, it's only because a few channels started to explode because of this, and the other channels had to keep up. It's not necessarily Mitch's fault.

lol the end of the gfs was gonna be something

hey chuck, how do you like that 585 dm over alaska?

you won't convince ji. this is a losing battle. please stop because you are wasting your time.

Jan 15 on the GEFS looks pretty nice IMO. Strong +PNA with an -EPO trying to form. Some trace of a -NAO. I like how the trough is centered just to the west of us so suppression is less of a risk.

GFS almost showed something. I'm not ready to declare winter over just yet.

FWIW (and it's probably not worth much IMO) since 1985, the years listed below were Ninos that were preceded by double dip (20-21, 21-22, and 22-23 don't count as that's a triple dip) <0.5 PDO Ninas and/or neutrals (at or below 0*C). 09-10: DCA: 56.1" | IAD: 73.2" 02-03: DCA: 40.4" | IAD: 50.1" 97-98: DCA: 0.1" | IAD: 5.9" 86-87: DCA: 31.1" | IAD: 42.7" If we were to remove the ones that were too strong/weak to fit that 0.5-1.2 category, we're left with this. 02-03: DCA: 40.4" | IAD: 50.1" 86-87: DCA: 31.1" | IAD: 42.7" IMO it doesn't matter because we're dealing with such a small sample size but at least it's worth taking a look at. Probably belongs in the ENSO thread as well lol

Excellent analysis. I wonder why MJO 6 leans cold with -AAM… but thank you so much!

BAM WX says that January -AAM/MJO 6 analogs since 1990 favor cold for most of the central and eastern US. Whether this is 100% true is questionable, but it's still interesting to note.

just for you, ji