bncho

generally 7 isn't the best phase, but I think it actually depends on the ENSO state. I think MJO 7-8-1 are better in Ninas, and MJO 8-1-2 are better in Ninos

bc i have the username bncho dude. what do you expect from me?

funky GFS run

lol look at that stream of arctic highs

This might be a rare year where the NYC indicator of 4"+ snow in December will not work out regarding above average snowfall for NYC for the season. I'm not sure how they'll make up enough ground come spring. I would agree with @bluewave regarding the fact that there would have to be a NESIS KU for NYC to reach above average snowfall, and although the late-January pattern into early-February might look cold it's not a pattern that screams KU at all. If there's a viable pathway for NYC to reach above average snowfall I'd be intrigued as to how they get there—some of the more knowledgable posters can chime in here.

Most of you know that I'm an optimist, but even I can't help but get a little bit worried. We're wasting half of January to wait for a 7/10 highly volatile -EPO/+TNH pattern and a wild card February and March. Will it be as bad as 22-23. 19-20, 16-17, etc.? I don't think so yet.

That's my birthday! Jan 32, 2026!

You come back Jan 15. Ji come back never.

I saw a flock of geese flying north.

0z GFS (which popped the coastal) vs 12z Euro fail. Easier to see why each outcome did what.

holy flop lmfao

hmmmmmm

Jan 18 onwards looks cold. Jan 14-15 IMO has the pieces but we need a larger +PNA ridge.

the end of the GFS was going to be something

barney is coming to town!

GFS slowly but surely trending better...

It was always January 15 and onwards.

It has always been mid month. People talk about can kicks but it’s just them getting impatient lol

What an amazing meteorologist.

One of your best posts… and you’re right. That wave rode along that thermal boundary and dropped 0.7-1” of QPF across the area. The thermal boundary would have been much more forgiving around Dec 15 and it would have been more or less snow/mix for most of us.

I leave this place for ONE hour and I find Ji is the most positive in the room.

lots of big hits on the GEFS, probably why the snow mean is so high

16th onwards. 4 day snow mean below

Major improvement on the snow mean on the GEFS, FWIW.

Mitch West is one of the few people who doesn't over hype meteorology, but with all the other channels with the clickbait titles and thumbnails, he essentially had two choices: lose to the competition or garner more views to keep up. And of course he chose the latter. So while yes, the meteorology space is damaged due to clickbait and overhype, it's only because a few channels started to explode because of this, and the other channels had to keep up. It's not necessarily Mitch's fault.