BarryStantonGBP

Are you leaning for or against TC genesis?

THIS WAVE HASN'T SPLASHED DOWN YET BUT DESERVES ITS OWN THREAD ANYWAY POST MODEL RUNS HERE

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So probably we could get a TD but no TS?

This run shows "Gabrielle" and "Humberto" on ket at the very end of the GIF

bob saar

GFS shows "Fernand" and "Gabrielle" as twins ("Erin" is shown as a weaker storm)

Why do you think chances dropped?

MJO forecasts wave propagation

Caribbeans me

Invest 96LAs of 18:00 UTC Aug 06, 2025: Location: 11.7°N 33.1°WMaximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/AMinimum Central Pressure: 1011 mbEnvironmental Pressure: N/ARadius of Circulation: N/ARadius of Maximum wind: 80 nm

LMAO AL, 96, 2025080618, , BEST, 0, 117N, 331W, 30, 1011, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 150, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 013, SPAWNINVEST, al732025 to al962025,

2. Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity has become a bit more concentrated with a tropical wave in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Patel

Next . Off the Southeastern United States: A weak area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern United States continues to produce only limited shower and thunderstorm activity. This system is forecast to drift northward over the next day or two before turning northeastward. Environmental conditions now only appear marginally favorable for tropical development into early next week as the system moves northeastward, remaining offshore of the eastern United States. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

And now he might go to the YOOKAY

Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical and subtropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent. Forecaster Patel

done