BarryStantonGBP

WHY'S THE PRESSURE SO HIGH

Think this could nick out? nick 2021

MATE DEEPMINDS HAD THIS ONE VOMITING IN THE GOA ON 29TH AUGUST

Oi lad what do you see this fella peaking at

RECON ABOUT TO PENETRATE LADS

that's what I think too lad

Do you think this little fella can reach C1

OI LADS YOUS COULD GET A LASTMINUTE.COM CATEGORY 1 INTO TEXAS INNIT

DEEPMINDS UPDATE: Erin expected to peak as a Cat 3-4, safe recurve for the CONUS but Bermuda needs to watch out "Fernand" remaining a weak TS into TX (98L) and could be a category 1 "Gabrielle" becoming an OTS CV recurver (major) "Humberto" forms in the WCAR and vomits in the Gulf (major landfall)

oi lad @GaWx are these 2 waves or 1 wave 0z EPS is slightly more aggressive with this wave, with about 40-50% of the members showing a low. Wide spread from Caribbean to the Bahamas. This run also shows some support for the following wave, on a much more clear-cut recurve pattern (even earlier than Erin), but pretty weak in both support for development and intensity.

180 WTNT45 KNHC 141434 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 14 2025 Satellite imagery shows that Erin has become a little better organized this morning, with the formation of a ragged central dense overcast with some outer banding in the northwestern semicircle. Satellite intensity estimates have increased a little during the past 6 h and are now in the 40-55 kt range. Based on these data, the initial intensity is increased to 50 kt. Erin will be in an environment of light-to-moderate easterly vertical shear and moving over increasing sea surface temperatures during the next 48 h. This should allow a faster rate of intensification during this time, and Erin is now forecast to become a hurricane by 24 h. The environment becomes less conducive after 48 h, with the global models forecast northwesterly shear over the cyclone as a large upper-level anticyclone develops to the west. Despite this forecast shear, the global and regional hurricane models forecast intensification to continue, although at a slower rate than during the first 48 h. Based on these forecasts, the new intensity forecast shows steady intensification through 48 h, followed by a slower rate of development during the remainder of the forecast period. The new forecast is near the intensity consensus, and there is guidance that suggests the possibility Erin could be stronger than currently forecast. The initial motion is now 275/15. The storm continues to be steered by a subtropical ridge to the north, and this ridge should steer the cyclone generally west-northwestward during the next three days. After that time, the western portion of the ridge is forecast to weaken or break due to the influence of the mid-latitude westerlies over the northeastern United States. This evolution should lead to Erin turning toward the northwest or north-northwest during the remainder of the forecast period, although there is significant spread in the guidance on just how sharp this turn will be. The new forecast track is south of the consensus models through 48 h and then lies near the consensus models thereafter. Due to the spread in the track guidance by 120 h and beyond, there is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin. 2. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/1500Z 16.4N 49.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 15/0000Z 16.9N 51.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 15/1200Z 17.8N 55.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 16/0000Z 18.6N 57.9W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/1200Z 19.4N 60.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 17/0000Z 20.3N 63.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/1200Z 21.3N 65.1W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/1200Z 23.5N 68.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 19/1200Z 26.5N 69.8W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Patel

why does this frog do this all the time? if 98L gets named it repeats the same pattern

probably gonna be a poundshop erin (dollar store for yous lot)

sod off

dorians me

Somehow I’m not seeing how the euro long term vs the mjo phases match

TNT45 KNHC 140238 TCDAT5 Tropical Storm Erin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052025 1100 PM AST Wed Aug 13 2025 Satellite images show that a solid area of convection remains near Erin, with low-cloud motions suggesting the center is on the northeastern side of the thunderstorm activity. Overall, there hasn't been a lot of change with the satellite presentation, and that is reflected in recent stable Dvorak and scatterometer values. The initial intensity is held at 45 kt for this advisory. The environment around Erin should remain marginally conducive during the next day or so, which will likely promote gradual strengthening. Thereafter, the storm is forecast to move across warmer waters, with potentially a decrease in shear. This evolution results in a period of potential rapid intensification late this week, and the official forecast reflects that possibility. While shear is generally forecast to increase over the weekend, this appears to be canceled out by large-scale divergence and water temperatures above 29C. Most models respond to this by showing a lower rate of intensification at that time. The new intensity forecast is adjusted upward somewhat from the previous forecast beyond 24 h based on the current guidance. There is increasing confidence on a large and powerful hurricane over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean this weekend. The initial motion is now 270/14 kt. There are no significant changes to the forecast track or steering. Erin should move westward overnight and then west-northwestward from Thursday through the weekend due to steering from the subtropical ridge. The ridge is forecast to break by early next week, resulting in a turn towards the northwest or north-northwest. The new forecast is basically an update of the previous forecast in the near term, and on the eastern side of the guidance envelope by day 5 between the consensus and the Google Deep Mind model. There is still a greater than normal uncertainty about what impacts Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda in the long range. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Locally heavy rainfall, high surf and rip currents, and tropical-storm force winds could occur in portions of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico this weekend as the core of Erin passes north of those islands. Interests in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Erin. 2. While there is still uncertainty in what impacts might occur in portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the United States, and Bermuda next week, the risk of dangerous surf and rip currents across the western Atlantic basin next week is increasing. As we approach the climatological peak of the hurricane season, this is an opportune time to ensure your preparedness plans are in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 16.3N 46.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 16.5N 48.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 17.2N 51.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 18.0N 54.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 57.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 19.8N 60.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 20.6N 62.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 22.8N 66.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 19/0000Z 25.5N 68.5W 110 KT 125 MPH $$ Forecaster Patel

Southwestern Gulf (AL98): A broad low pressure area has formed from a tropical wave over the Yucatan Peninsula with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. This low is forecast to move west-northwestward across the southwestern Gulf overnight where environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development. The system is forecast to move inland over northeastern Mexico by late Friday, ending its chances of formation. Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Got this right now but things are subject to change Euro EMON: 11th - 16th August: Phase 2 18th - 30th August: Phase 3 30th - 31st August: Phase 2 1st - 12th September: Phase 1 Euro EMOM: 12th - 19th August: Phase 3 20th - 29th August: Phase 4 30th August - 12th September: Phase 2 BOM: 11th - 18th August: Phase 3 18th - 27th August: Phase 4 28th August - 9th September: Phase 2 NCFS: 12th - 17th August: Phase 2 18th - 22nd August: Phase 3 23rd August - 7th September: Phase 4 8th -11th September: Phase 3, 2, 1, 8