BarryStantonGBP

What do you mean by dramatically quieter?

fair enough

Do you think the numbers have to be upped dramatically?

What does this look like to you?

What are you thinking? I'm personally not buying into it at all They went 15-7-3/ACE 129 with 2011, 2012 and 2018 analogs.

First forecast from UCL is out, they're going for an average season [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/TSRATLForecastDecember2025.pdf[/URL] [URL unfurl="true"]https://www.artemis.bm/news/tsr-projects-7-atlantic-hurricanes-3-major-storms-in-extended-range-2025-forecast/[/URL]

"Category 3 Milton"

An El Nino with a broiling +AMO Atlantic. Welcome back 2023.

@GaWxList of links to all the indicators:https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.htmlhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... x_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_VSHD.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_VSHD.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_VSHD.gifhttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... .sprd2.png --- NAOhttps://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/https://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov/data_cu ... urrent.pnghttps://cyclonicwx.com/data/sst/ssta_natl.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/ocean/https://cyclonicwx.com/sst/https://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... x_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... r_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... t_THDV.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... MP_048.gifhttps://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/d ... MP_048.gifhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... _atl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... watl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... eatl_1.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... tlssta.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drssta.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... drglob.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... arssta.pnghttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... omssta.pnghttps://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... eq_anm.gifhttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... nino34.pnghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1080.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1080.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1200.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1200.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 00x600.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttps://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16 ... 0x1000.jpghttp://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/splitE.jpg

No problem + I hope they're wrong too, but I sense a CP Nino coming and a 2004 type season. Plenty of warmth indicated in the CANSIPS map

But anyway, since we're here, I'm showing now the Cansips forecast for ASO 2025

Obviously we can have more serious discussions about 2025 in December and beyond, but as of now, using 2024 as a barometer, here's what I personally think (of course, these are very preliminary) will be different next year. Some quirky ideas examined too. 1. I think we're going to see at least an above-average season. Upper 10s in total NSs, upper single digit hurricane count, and 3-5 major hurricanes. I also have a hunch that we're going to see maybe a storm or two end up as being long-tracking major hurricanes from the MDR. Might be a slightly more eastern-based season that this year. 2. I think there will be another major CONUS Gulf landfall this year. Cat 3 or higher. This seems like a characteristic that, unfortunately, is a staple of many recent seasons and is unlikely to change barring any major overarching pattern shifts. 3. This might be the year that the major hurricane landfall drought in Eastern Florida ends. Or....maybe it'll be elsewhere along the CONUS's eastern coastline. 4. A more "normal" season in terms of hurricane timing. Meaning, a fairly weak November and no storms even remotely like Beryl, but late August-early September will be prime time. 5. Our 155+ mph hurricane streak will continue. In fact, I'd wager that we're going to see another destructive Category 5 hurricane somewhere. Maybe not sub-900 mbar, but it reaches a minimum pressure in the 900s. 6. Instead of an I curse, we now have an H curse. Humberto will be the one to watch, and Imelda will be some nothingburger storm in the open ocean. Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations.

Obviously we can have more serious discussions about 2025 in December and beyond, but as of now, using 2024 as a barometer, here's what I personally think (of course, these are very preliminary) will be different next year. Some quirky ideas examined too. 1. I think we're going to see at least an above-average season. Upper 10s in total NSs, upper single digit hurricane count, and 3-5 major hurricanes. I also have a hunch that we're going to see maybe a storm or two end up as being long-tracking major hurricanes from the MDR. Might be a slightly more eastern-based season that this year. 2. I think there will be another major CONUS Gulf landfall this year. Cat 3 or higher. This seems like a characteristic that, unfortunately, is a staple of many recent seasons and is unlikely to change barring any major overarching pattern shifts. 3. This might be the year that the major hurricane landfall drought in Eastern Florida ends. Or....maybe it'll be elsewhere along the CONUS's eastern coastline. 4. A more "normal" season in terms of hurricane timing. Meaning, a fairly weak November and no storms even remotely like Beryl, but late August-early September will be prime time. 5. Our 155+ mph hurricane streak will continue. In fact, I'd wager that we're going to see another destructive Category 5 hurricane somewhere. Maybe not sub-900 mbar, but it reaches a minimum pressure in the 900s. 6. Instead of an I curse, we now have an H curse. Humberto will be the one to watch, and Imelda will be some nothingburger storm in the open ocean. Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations.

So an inactive hurricane season on the way since you said 2013-14

What's the most likely analog?

Could it be like 2004

That is, for hurricane season.

What would CP Nino mean for the atlantic come September?

I made a thread on the possible 2025 el Nino, but what does a +PDO mean?

Have you checked ENSO for August 2025?

CPAC warming

https://climateimpactcompany.com/november-2024-enso-outlook-la-nina-could-fail-el-nino-on-the-table-for-later-next-year-2-2/#:~:text=In 2025%2C the ENSO forecast,shifting into an El Nino.