s2k users yapping, but these are good points
MarioProtVI
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Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
#517 by MarioProtVI » Sat Aug 16, 2025 10:38 am
Atlantic beating WPac once again to the punch in getting a Cat 5
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Teban54
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Joined: Sat May 19, 2018 1:19 pm
Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
#518 by Teban54 » Sat Aug 16, 2025 12:33 pm
Something something cool MDR, something something warm subtropics inducing stability: (15-day mean chosen to reduce the effects of Erin's cold wake)
Something something inactive deep tropics:
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Category5Kaiju
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Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models)
#519 by Category5Kaiju » Sat Aug 16, 2025 5:56 pm
To say that I'm concerned about the future of this season is....an understatement.
With Erin already reaching Category 5 status by mid-August and with rumblings of yet another storm originating in the deep tropics in the coming days/weeks that potentially looks to be more of a land threat than Erin, there's no telling what September and October are going to look like. The fact that we're getting such formidable activity in what recently has been a relatively dead period in the Atlantic, combined with the expected -ENSO trend, makes me think that we still have a lot of season left and that Erin may not be the only Category 5 hurricane we see this season.
I know there's been a lot of mixed signals early on this hurricane season, but at this point I think the tropics have really shown how they would like to proceed forward in terms of activity. Buckle up, and be prepared.
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Unless explicitly stated, all info in my posts is based on my own opinions and observations. Tropical storms and hurricanes can be extremely dangerous. Do not think you can beat Mother Nature. Refer to an accredited weather research agency or meteorologist if you need to make serious decisions regarding an approaching storm.