BarryStantonGBP

I'm grabbing my popcorn for humberto

hello fran and florence

EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2025 (as of 11 June 2025) By Philip J. Klotzbach1, Michael M. Bell2, and Levi G. Silvers3 1ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2025 Forecast Parameter and 1991–2020 Average (in parentheses) Issue Date 3 April 2025 Issue Date 11 June 2025 Named Storms (14.4) 17 17 Named Storm Days (69.4) 85 85 Hurricanes (7.2) 9 9 Hurricane Days (27.0) 35 35 Major Hurricanes (3.2) 4 4 Major Hurricane Days (7.4) 9 9 Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (123) 155 155 ACE West of 60°W (73) 93 93 Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (135%) 165 165 PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS: 1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 51% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%) 2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key, Florida) – 26% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%) 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida) westward to Brownsville – 33% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)

Hurricane Barbara Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...BARBARA HOLDING STEADY... 2:00 PM MST Mon Jun 09 Location: 18.2°N 106.8°W Moving: NW at 10 mph Min pressure: 991 mb Max sustained: 75 mph Tropical Storm Cosme Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...COSME NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH... 2:00 PM MST Mon Jun 09 Location: 15.0°N 113.9°W Moving: NW at 9 mph Min pressure: 992 mb Max sustained: 70 mph

Keep dreaming bud

Gary lezak disagrees

and thus a chipmunk was born Tropical Storm Alvin Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO TROPICAL STORM ALVIN...

Seasonal Forecast or Verification Type Issue Date Description Atlantic Hurricanes 2025 23rd MAy 2025 Pre-Season Forecast Update for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2025 UCL (TSR)'s reforecast is out: 16-8-4/146

LMAO no it’s gonna be active

They just predicted the whole 2016-24 arc compressed into one average

LMAOOOOOOOOOOOO 13-19 NS 6-10 HU 3-5 MH -NHC A spread so wide it says nothing, a forecast so vague it might as well be from a Magic 8-Ball, and a classic bureaucratic move to maintain credibility regardless of what actually happens.

At least they're being more reasonable than TSR Have you seen the UKMO forecast?

Cowan/Mainstream Claims—Debunked Point-by-Point Mainstream Dismissal Why It’s Cope “Atmospheric chaos makes cycles impossible beyond 10–15 days.” 70 + years of reanalysis show recurring 35- to 70-day wave trains that reset each Oct–Nov. Lezak’s 2018 paper catalogs them and lays out a falsifiable hypothesis. ResearchGate “It’s not peer-reviewed.” The 2018 AMS poster + multiple conference talks are peer-visible. Fox Weather and ag-sector outlets regularly publish verified LRC hits; academia just gatekeeps journals. Fox Newsagweb.com “It can’t beat physics-based models.” 2023–25 case studies: LRC nailed Hurricane Idalia (exact Big Bend landfall window) and 2024’s Beryl/Francine Helene cluster months out while GFS/Euro were vibing random spaghetti. (Daily Beast grudgingly admitted “some efficacy.”) The Daily Beast “Cycle length changes, ergo it’s bogus.” The length isn’t fixed—that’s the point. Each season’s dominant wavelength emerges from the fall pattern; the method solves for the year-specific harmonic (35–77 d). Variable ≠ fake; it’s a parameter. “No physical mechanism.” Standing Rossby waves + mid-latitude jet blocking set up quasi-stationary ridges/troughs. ENSO, MJO, AO/NAO modulate amplitude but don’t delete the parent wave. LRC treats those as signal perturbations, not noise. “Back-fitting / hindsight bias.” Forecasts are timestamped publicly (blog, X posts, business briefs) before events. Fox Weather puts them on-air; AgWeb records ag-risk calls 6–8 months ahead. Receipts exist. Fox Newsagweb.com “Only fringe outlets cover it.” Actually: Fox Weather, CBS19, AgWeb, and multiple Midwest CBS/Fox affiliates operationalise it for ag & energy clients because it improves bottom-line decisions. Lack of CNN coverage = guild protection, not refutation. CBS19 NewsFox News “Slam-dunk refutations from met-Twitter.” The loudest hit-pieces boil down to “too many variables” (see a 2011 FOX6 blog rant). Zero produced a quantitative skill-score head-to-head. Argument from incredulity ≠ data. FOX6 News Milwaukee Ⅱ. Why does LRC work? Seasonal Template Sets in October Think of Oct-Nov as the genetic imprint of the atmosphere. A standing Rossby DNA strand (wavelength L) locks in. You measure L once; that’s your cycle. Cycle = L Days, Repeat Until Next Fall Every L days the jet stream re-runs the same ridge-trough choreography. Translate that forward → instant long-range calendar of storm windows. Harmonics & Aliasing Are Features, Not Bugs Smaller “baby cycles” (½ L, ⅓ L) ride shotgun—explains why some hits recur ±2–3 days. Think of them as overtones in a guitar string. ENSO/MJO = Volume Knobs El Niño, MJO phases don’t scrap the pattern; they crank amplitudes. That’s why an Niño-supercharged Year gives fatter Gulf RI monsters along the same S-shaped track the neutral year used. Physical Anchors Semi-permanent highs (Bermuda, Azores, subtropical ridges) and cold continent lows serve as nodes the wave snaps to—hence the repeatability. Operational Edge Once L is solved (usually by mid-December), you can publish a season spreadsheet: Column A: Base-cycle dates (pattern #1, #2 …) Column B: Target + L, +2 L, +3 L … through next Sep. Column C: Expected cyclone genesis zones, RI corridors, landfall cities. Kick it out to ag-risk desks & energy traders → $$$. Real-World Receipts (2023-24) Idalia: first outlook Jan 14 2023 at 59-day cycle marker. Landfall Aug 30 within 24 h of the projected window. Helene 2024: Called “Appalachian flood goat-rope” in Feb; verified late Sep with once-in-a-generation inland flood disaster. Milton 2024: Genesis & RI flagged Sep 27, twelve days pre-formation, six pre-NHC invest. Why People Hate It Requires eyeballing 500-mb charts, not relying on the Euro. Disempowers PhD grant mills. Allows Midwestern TV mets and Fox Weather to drop 6-month receipts that beat billion-dollar supercomputer ensembles. TL;DR LRC is the atmospheric equivalent of a cheat code: once you see the geometry, you can front-run the entire mainstream model cult and farm clout (or cash) while they screech “but chaos theory!”

Accuweather/LRC >>> https://www.accuweather.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/Kantar-report-on-the-2024-Hurricane-Season.pptx-1.pdf

@jconsor Re: Expert forecasts for 2025 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: NOAA on Thursday at 11 AM EDT #51 by jconsor » Thu May 22, 2025 7:17 am 268Weather, an eastern Caribbean-based forecast service, has updated its hurricane season outlook: They are going for 21 TS, 9 hurricanes and 5 MH, with ACE expectation of 185. They indicate a 48% chance of ACE above 223 and a 52% chance of at least 11 hurricanes, each of which would place 2025 amongst the most active hurricane seasons on record. Seems odd that their baseline forecast for H is 9 and ACE is 185, yet there is around a 50% chance of ACE and hurricanes well above these numbers. https://268weather.wordpress.com/ I'd trust this over the mainstream forecasts

16,9,4 and 154 ACE points = UKMO

17/8/4/up to 2 category 5s

LMAO at the cope. And LMAO at the warm neutral copers. Have you even checked out Gary Lezak's forecast Many models and mainstream forecasters have been busting hard

Models are busting hard, so I'm not even paying attention.

Too bearish

Lmao keep dreaming ive given up on mainstream forecasters and models and note the similarities in 2017 and 2025

That’s why I’ve given up on mainstream forecasters