BarryStantonGBP

A s2k user said (and I agree):

Invest 93L As of 18:00 UTC Jul 14, 2025: Location: 29.6°N 78.0°W Maximum Winds: 20 kt Gusts: N/A Minimum Central Pressure: 1016 mb Environmental Pressure: N/A Radius of Circulation: N/A Radius of Maximum wind: 60 nm

thanks mate

pls someone change the title to 10/30 I can't do it

Mental run mate

I could see that happening

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Near the Southeastern U.S.: A broad area of low pressure could form over the next several days offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast. Environmental conditions could become marginally conducive for the gradual development of this system by mid to late next week as the system moves generally westward across the Florida Peninsula and over the eastern and north-central portion of the Gulf. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible over portions of the Florida Peninsula and southeast U.S. coast through mid to late next week (and y’all better stock up on Hot Cheetos, I am NOT playing). Forecaster Papin/Mahoney/Jackson

no wonder I have a Newfoundland landfall in my forecast

right here’s the thing mate you keep saying “mixed signals” as if that’s some badge of honour for not having an opinion just because there’s not 100% consensus on every single indicator doesn’t mean you can just sit on the fence until september and then post “i told you so” either way the only reason there’s “mixed” anything is because everyone’s copium-addicted to the composite charts instead of looking at the actual year-on-year overlays like i posted let’s talk apples to apples since you’re bringing up 2004 and 2024 as if they’re the same animal they’re not even in the same zoo 2024 was an el niño hangover year with a spring mdr lid so thick you could serve sunday roast on it the only reason it backloaded is because the mjo went ballistic in september and the canary current spat a warm anomaly into the main development region now look at the 2025 sst overlays (and yes, i posted the maps, not some coped-out composite) it’s a carbon copy of 2004 right down to the global dipoles, but with even stronger itcz support and the shear dropping earlier the “ohc is not 2024” line is classic boomer cope as well you don’t need 2024-level ohc to get majors in the atlantic—look at 2017, the majors all tracked along the mdr-warm corridor and exploded when the upper-level pattern unlocked i’ve posted the week-by-week sst and ohc maps if you wanna check your own receipts you just need enough for rapid intensification, not endless warehouse reserves if you only go bullish in literal record years you’ll never catch the true analog years before the boom you also keep hedging with “let’s see by mid-august” and “i need more data”—that’s just covering your arse so you can never be wrong you said yourself this is a +anomalous sst year with neutral enso, record-low sal, and a wind profile about to crack open from the west african monsoon if you’re “lean an” you should be bullish, period this isn’t 2013, this isn’t 2024, and if you actually look at the subtropical ssta and the evolving ohc corridor, you’ll see it’s 2017-2004 hybrid energy with even more mdr runway if the first proper wave survives also 2025 ohc > 2017 ohc according to the maps you posted innit the “do it there” line is rich considering half the takes in here are recycled from s2k and stormiest anyway just admit you’re in the camp of “nobody knows so i’ll only commit once a cat 2 is on the map” and move on some of us will keep calling it like we see it with the receipts and the week-by-week analog overlays when the wave train lights up don’t be shy to come back and say “alright, grandpa, you had a point” cheers barry out

>pseudoscience not a single photon +

also in response to s2k posters: quote 1: this guy is spot on about the mdr. you can see in the latest sst anomaly maps (posted above, 11 july 2025) — the mdr is now basically on par with 2017, especially in the central + western half. that 0.3–0.5c warmth is well within the “active as hell” territory, especially for mid-july. anyone who’s been tracking these years knows it’s not the level but the rate of warming that matters this time of year — and the mdr has gone full turbo. you look at those pics side by side with 2004 and even 2017, and it’s literally the same, if not more bullish right now. last i checked, cape verde monsters didn’t give a toss about whether the ssta is 0.3 or 0.5 — it’s the setup that matters, and it’s loaded. quote 2: this bloke (and he constantly is doing this for the entire season) is holding out for the “uncle sal” save, but this is the same script as every year when the mdr lights up. yes, e pac sst is warming a bit, but the mjo “waning” argument only matters if you get a phase stall. the mjo pulse is setting up right on time for late july. that’s the same time frame you saw the rainfall signature flip in 2004 (and 2017), after the “dry caribbean” anomaly in may/june. the “broad basin stability” thing is just another way of saying “i hope for a slow season,” but we’ve all seen that story before. how many years in the last decade did people bang on about “sal, stability, e pac torching” — and then august drops a parade of majors from the mdr? (2017, 2020, even 2021 to an extent). and anyone refusing even 2021 as an analogue needs to go to speccies mate at the end of the day, you can watch e pac warm as much as you want, but unless you see a full-on el niño reload — which is not even on the table right now — the atlantic mdr is primed, and every teleconnection that matters is cocked for an active august. all the “home-grown” or “subtropics genesis” copium doesn’t erase the fact that the main development region is basically a powder keg as soon as uncle sal backs off for five minutes. take a look at the most recent sst overlays i posted (including 11 july 2025), compare them to any of the active years, and show me where the “capping” is supposed to be. if anything, the upper-level pattern is even more bullish this time around. so yeah, keep an eye on the mjo and sal, but stop praying for stability miracles — the basin is primed, receipts are posted, and the wave train is about to get rolling whether the composite copers like it or not let’s see who’s still talking “broad stability” once the majors start lining up

yeah mate you’re bang on the water temp config this year is basically tailor made for a high-latitude freak show honestly the subtropics are glowing the whole north atlantic is on some kind of pre-industrial revolution sauce right now you look at those july sst anomaly maps i posted it’s just a wall of orange from the gulf stream up past the azores even into the maritimes people keep sleeping on what happens when you get a wave with legs making it north of 35n with this kind of fuel under it and the right upper-level window we’re not just talking about a classic cape verde track anymore you’re gonna see some real “hold my beer” moments when something bombs out well north of bermuda like my lad ernie from last year last time we had a similar set up 2017/2005/2020 we got hurricanes cranking way up in the extratropics and they weren’t just headlines they were making history don’t be surprised if we see a proper major spinning up at 40n this year brings me back memories of 2019, the category 3 off NYC (not dorian) all these copers saying “oh it’s all gonna be homebrew storms” have clearly not clocked the ssta layout north of the main development region you get a persistent ridge break or a stalled upper-low and it’s off to the races tl;dr the subtropics are a powder keg the mdr is loaded and if we get the right wave you’re gonna see some weird headlines out of nova scotia and the azores let’s see who’s still talking down the risk once september comes bring on the freaks innit

no problem, do you know who can invite him onto here?

now, let’s talk about models. these are the same clowns who had 2013 going ape and then it flatlined, or 2017 where everyone spent July 2017 crying about “weak storms” and then irma/maria/harvey dropped a fat deuce on the entire basin (see the screenshots from the s2k doomers). you’d think by now they’d have learned — but no, they’re still here, hiding behind their “professional” tag and “seasonal skill” copes even the bloody rainfall precip was predicted in July 2017 to be dry as me neighbour's Yorkshire roast for ASO, exactly where we are in July 2025, low precip for ASO and this 2013 analog nonsense? complete delusion. 2013 had a cold mdr, positive 850mb westerly anomalies, and a torchy subtropics, literally the opposite of what’s in play this year. pull up the 2013 ssta screenshot (dylan’s post) — you can see it’s dogshit for the mdr, pure wall-to-wall stability. not even close to 2025. sst anomalies: July 2013/2017/2025 muh cold mdr muh cold caribbean now, look at the july 2025 sst anomaly - the last pic: basically a 2017 repeat, except the cold tongue is even further north, which is what you want for majors, not a “brick wall” like 2013. your own receipts prove you wrong now we compare canary current and the eastern atlantic; 2017 vs 2025 (last pic was 11th July 2025 right in the middle of this bloody heatwave) so what do you get if you actually pay attention to the analog? every major driver (sst, heights, low-level wind, monsoon) matches 2004 almost perfectly caribbean rainfall lag is just a may artifact, always flips by mid-july, see the weeklies s2k forum doomers and stormiest types were all saying “mixed signals” in 2017 and it still went nuclear models only matter if you pick the right analogs — otherwise, you get “mixed signals” and clown forecasts tl;dr: composites = cope, blend the signal to mush actual analog (2004) = almost identical to 2025, except 2025 is even more bullish caribbean dryness is timing, not structure — mjo pulse already on the horizon anyone invoking 2013 as an analog is just admitting they never looked at the actual sst structure receipts don’t lie, so keep them handy for august when the boomers and the pro-mets get mogged oh, and the last screenshot? go compare the july 2025 sst to 2017. both have the mdr blazing, none of the cold brick 2013 energy the doomers want you to see. it’s all there in the images. keep coping with your “composites,” but the real hurricane season is going to trump your averages off the map.

@GaWxdoes category5kaiju use this forum, would be cool to bantz with him innit

tldr: look at the pics i posted. you want receipts? i’ve got them: ssta 2004 vs 2025: basically one-for-one on every global teleconnection that matters—cold tongue, warm kuroshio, warm canary, cool gulf stream tongue, the whole shebang. only meaningful difference is a slightly less amped ENSO box (but spatial footprint is identical). 500mb heights: negative north atlantic/positive ridge in nw pacific, euro trough, even the amplitude is 10–15m stronger in 2025. this is NOT a “mixed” or “confused” state; it’s a classic pattern that opens the mdr in july/aug. 850mb zonal wind: 2025’s got even stronger easterlies across the ITCZ and eastern atlantic than 2004. you can see the subtropical jet setting up the early wave train survival conditions. precip: i’ll give you one—caribbean is dry in may 2025 vs 2004. but here’s the rub: 2004’s caribbean went green after may, with the mjo pulse in july flipping the script. same signal is showing up for this year (see euro weeklies, july mjo inbound). so, the only thing your “composite” is flagging is a temporary lag, not a brick wall. and now you’ve got these model simps acting like it’s 2013 all over again. get to specsavers mate: 2013 had cold mdr, warm subtropics, persistent positive 850mb westerly anomaly across the deep tropics (shear guillotine), and a euro ridge/ne-pac ridge that shut down vorticity. none of that is in play for 2025. not even close. 2025 is literally painting the same pre-season canvas as 2004, which—reminder—delivered 6 majors and ace near 230, not some washed-out 2013 flop. about relying on “traditional models”—are we still pretending these things have skill past 5 days, let alone months out? how many times do we have to watch the same csu/noaa/ukmet parade get pantsed by reality before we admit the emperor’s got no clothes? they chase composites and ensemble means, but can’t see the actual synoptic pattern unfolding under their nose. weather doesn’t care about your python scripts or your github repo. show me a model that nailed the timing and location of landfalls last year. oh wait, you can’t. composites are for people who are scared to make a call. if you want to “average out” the signal, you’ll always see “mixed” because that’s what happens when you blur out all the structure. but you look at actual years—like 2004—and stack up every large-scale lever (ssts, heights, zonal wind, rainfall)—and it’s obvious: the levers are cocked for a proper atlantic rager. so stop cherry-picking, stop hiding behind composite copium, and stop acting like the models have any real predictive power for seasonal skill. 2004 is the analog, 2025 is the set-up, and if you want to wait for a model to tell you it’s “active” you’ll be left holding your own busted forecast when the mdr lights up. and if you’re still not convinced, go back to the pics i posted. you’ll see every driver lining up except the caribbean box in may—which, again, flips anyway as soon as the monsoon fires up. no amount of spreadsheeting or composite averaging can erase the fact that the real synoptic features are all lined up for another major season. so crack open a can of stella and watch the bearish lot and composite-copers try to explain it all away when the waves start rolling.