BarryStantonGBP

What are you predicting? Appreciate the numbers, but I’m not with you on ACE/MH. A long-track Cat 4 typically racks up ~24 ACE by itself. With Erin already in the bank and at least 3–4 major windows left (Gulf mid or late-Sep, SE coast mid-Oct, MDR fish late Oct, Panhandle/Bermuda late Oct), ~190 ACE and ~6 MH are reasonable this year. LRC timing is clean. Hurricanes ~8 is still plausible. And yep: Erin peaked at 160 mph (not knots).

Rush Rush disagrees with you BTW He's a good account to follow on Twitter and Lezak predicted 180

I asked someone over on twitter and this is their estimation for the remainder of the season NS 19 | H 8 | MH 6 | ACE ≈ 190 unitsStrongest: Erin - 160 kt Cat 5Retirements: 2 (names redacted, but they told me the names) Rush Rush is a good account to follow BTW

strong disagreement per the cycling theory from 2023-25, there will likely be a Gulf landfall in mid-late September (watch out for either the 16th or 25th September for an impact date), an OBX brush late September-early October, and a GA/SC landfall or brush in mid October

WHERE SHE AT

QUOTE FROM CUCK2K AHEM:

LMFAOOOOO GOOGLE AI MENTIONED Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102025 200 PM MST Sun Aug 24 2025 Data from both the ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometers indicate that the broad area of low pressure located well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation. The deep convection has been forming a rudimentary banding structure over the western semicircle of the circulation. Thus, the system is being designated as Tropical Depression Ten-E at this time. The scatterometer observations indicate that the system is just below tropical storm strength, and the intensity estimate is in good agreement with a Dvorak estimate from TAFB. The initial motion estimate is west-northwestward, or 290/12 kt. A mid-level ridge is expected to remain to the northeast of the tropical cyclone during the next few days. This steering pattern should cause a west-northwestward to northwestward track for most of the forecast period. In 4-5 days, the weakening cyclone is expected turn more westward in the low-level flow. The official track forecast lies between the NOAA corrected consensus, HCCA, model and the Google Deep Mind, GDMI, predictions. The cyclone is currently over warm waters within moderate northeasterly vertical wind shear. Although the shear is predicted to lessen over the next couple of days, gradually cooling ocean waters should partially offset the more conducive wind environment. Therefore, only modest strengthening is forecast, and the NHC prediction is roughly in the middle of the model guidance. Around the end of the forecast period, significantly lower SSTs are likely to reduce the system to a remnant low. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 16.0N 109.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 16.7N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 17.7N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 18.7N 115.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 19.7N 117.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 21.0N 118.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 22.4N 120.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 24.5N 121.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 25.0N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch

EP, 10, 2025082418, , BEST, 0, 157N, 1093W, 30, 1006, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 150, 60, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, TEN, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 019, TRANSITIONED, epB22025 to ep102025,

humberto has to wait

PACK IT UP GABRIELLE TomballEd Category 3 Posts: 832 Age: 61 Joined: Wed Aug 16, 2023 4:52 pm Location: Spring/Klein area, not Tomball Re: 2025 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16) #753 by TomballEd » Thu Aug 21, 2025 4:36 pm Tiny bit of support for something that will follow 90L out to sea and developing in the same area on the GFS family, the Euro family has weak support for a subtropical development of the East Coast. But it still looks like dead tropics after 90L recurves. Near the peak of the season. But it comes back around mid-September. That is for the Day 16+ thread, of course.

H AND MH?

Watch Fernand and Gabrielle be weak and short lived Could get Fernand off the red blob 99L might go into the BOC and become Gabs Humberto = have to wait until late september 2024 had a similar pace as well with Fran forming in early September in the Gulf

Sorry Fernand, it's Juliette's turn

OI LAZZA NICE ONE LAD Do you rule out any quick spin ups in the GOM during the "inactive" period that's set to favour the EPAC?

LazzaWX said this on Storm2k, what are your thoughts? LarryWx S2K Supporter Posts: 6467 Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm Location: GA Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) #525 by LarryWx » Wed Aug 20, 2025 12:36 pm Based on the ensembles and European Weeklies, I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s quiet for a couple of weeks starting August 24th. If so, this could somewhat resemble 2024’s very quiet 19 day period (late August through early Sept.). If so, I’d then be expecting an active 2nd half of Sept. and probably into early Oct. (also similar to 2024 ). Other opinions? 3 likes Personal Forecast Disclaimer: The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products. Top LarryWx S2K Supporter Posts: 6467 Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 2:04 pm Location: GA Re: 2025 Indicators: SST's, MSLP, Shear, SAL, Steering, Instability (Day 16+ Climate Models) #526 by LarryWx » Wed Aug 20, 2025 3:35 pm The brand new Euro Weeklies continue with yesterday’s run’s idea of a more active 3rd week of Sept than the first half, somewhat resembling 2024 especially considering the possible relative quiet for next week based on quiet ensembles: Here are today’s EW ACE forecasts: 8/25-31: 9-10 9/1-7: 4 9/8-14: 10-11 9/15-21: 13-15 Edit: Keep in mind that the EW did well last year with the lull.

I just feel major CONUS blows might be at the second half of the peak

I have 20-12-5, 190 ACE

Now just wait for 99L to contribute nothing if he turns into fernand

and what about NS forecasts just don't want the funniest name wasted on a crap system

So the EPAC hogs the peak season