BarryStantonGBP

>pseudoscience not a single photon +

also in response to s2k posters: quote 1: this guy is spot on about the mdr. you can see in the latest sst anomaly maps (posted above, 11 july 2025) — the mdr is now basically on par with 2017, especially in the central + western half. that 0.3–0.5c warmth is well within the “active as hell” territory, especially for mid-july. anyone who’s been tracking these years knows it’s not the level but the rate of warming that matters this time of year — and the mdr has gone full turbo. you look at those pics side by side with 2004 and even 2017, and it’s literally the same, if not more bullish right now. last i checked, cape verde monsters didn’t give a toss about whether the ssta is 0.3 or 0.5 — it’s the setup that matters, and it’s loaded. quote 2: this bloke (and he constantly is doing this for the entire season) is holding out for the “uncle sal” save, but this is the same script as every year when the mdr lights up. yes, e pac sst is warming a bit, but the mjo “waning” argument only matters if you get a phase stall. the mjo pulse is setting up right on time for late july. that’s the same time frame you saw the rainfall signature flip in 2004 (and 2017), after the “dry caribbean” anomaly in may/june. the “broad basin stability” thing is just another way of saying “i hope for a slow season,” but we’ve all seen that story before. how many years in the last decade did people bang on about “sal, stability, e pac torching” — and then august drops a parade of majors from the mdr? (2017, 2020, even 2021 to an extent). and anyone refusing even 2021 as an analogue needs to go to speccies mate at the end of the day, you can watch e pac warm as much as you want, but unless you see a full-on el niño reload — which is not even on the table right now — the atlantic mdr is primed, and every teleconnection that matters is cocked for an active august. all the “home-grown” or “subtropics genesis” copium doesn’t erase the fact that the main development region is basically a powder keg as soon as uncle sal backs off for five minutes. take a look at the most recent sst overlays i posted (including 11 july 2025), compare them to any of the active years, and show me where the “capping” is supposed to be. if anything, the upper-level pattern is even more bullish this time around. so yeah, keep an eye on the mjo and sal, but stop praying for stability miracles — the basin is primed, receipts are posted, and the wave train is about to get rolling whether the composite copers like it or not let’s see who’s still talking “broad stability” once the majors start lining up

yeah mate you’re bang on the water temp config this year is basically tailor made for a high-latitude freak show honestly the subtropics are glowing the whole north atlantic is on some kind of pre-industrial revolution sauce right now you look at those july sst anomaly maps i posted it’s just a wall of orange from the gulf stream up past the azores even into the maritimes people keep sleeping on what happens when you get a wave with legs making it north of 35n with this kind of fuel under it and the right upper-level window we’re not just talking about a classic cape verde track anymore you’re gonna see some real “hold my beer” moments when something bombs out well north of bermuda like my lad ernie from last year last time we had a similar set up 2017/2005/2020 we got hurricanes cranking way up in the extratropics and they weren’t just headlines they were making history don’t be surprised if we see a proper major spinning up at 40n this year brings me back memories of 2019, the category 3 off NYC (not dorian) all these copers saying “oh it’s all gonna be homebrew storms” have clearly not clocked the ssta layout north of the main development region you get a persistent ridge break or a stalled upper-low and it’s off to the races tl;dr the subtropics are a powder keg the mdr is loaded and if we get the right wave you’re gonna see some weird headlines out of nova scotia and the azores let’s see who’s still talking down the risk once september comes bring on the freaks innit

no problem, do you know who can invite him onto here?

now, let’s talk about models. these are the same clowns who had 2013 going ape and then it flatlined, or 2017 where everyone spent July 2017 crying about “weak storms” and then irma/maria/harvey dropped a fat deuce on the entire basin (see the screenshots from the s2k doomers). you’d think by now they’d have learned — but no, they’re still here, hiding behind their “professional” tag and “seasonal skill” copes even the bloody rainfall precip was predicted in July 2017 to be dry as me neighbour's Yorkshire roast for ASO, exactly where we are in July 2025, low precip for ASO and this 2013 analog nonsense? complete delusion. 2013 had a cold mdr, positive 850mb westerly anomalies, and a torchy subtropics, literally the opposite of what’s in play this year. pull up the 2013 ssta screenshot (dylan’s post) — you can see it’s dogshit for the mdr, pure wall-to-wall stability. not even close to 2025. sst anomalies: July 2013/2017/2025 muh cold mdr muh cold caribbean now, look at the july 2025 sst anomaly - the last pic: basically a 2017 repeat, except the cold tongue is even further north, which is what you want for majors, not a “brick wall” like 2013. your own receipts prove you wrong now we compare canary current and the eastern atlantic; 2017 vs 2025 (last pic was 11th July 2025 right in the middle of this bloody heatwave) so what do you get if you actually pay attention to the analog? every major driver (sst, heights, low-level wind, monsoon) matches 2004 almost perfectly caribbean rainfall lag is just a may artifact, always flips by mid-july, see the weeklies s2k forum doomers and stormiest types were all saying “mixed signals” in 2017 and it still went nuclear models only matter if you pick the right analogs — otherwise, you get “mixed signals” and clown forecasts tl;dr: composites = cope, blend the signal to mush actual analog (2004) = almost identical to 2025, except 2025 is even more bullish caribbean dryness is timing, not structure — mjo pulse already on the horizon anyone invoking 2013 as an analog is just admitting they never looked at the actual sst structure receipts don’t lie, so keep them handy for august when the boomers and the pro-mets get mogged oh, and the last screenshot? go compare the july 2025 sst to 2017. both have the mdr blazing, none of the cold brick 2013 energy the doomers want you to see. it’s all there in the images. keep coping with your “composites,” but the real hurricane season is going to trump your averages off the map.

@GaWxdoes category5kaiju use this forum, would be cool to bantz with him innit

tldr: look at the pics i posted. you want receipts? i’ve got them: ssta 2004 vs 2025: basically one-for-one on every global teleconnection that matters—cold tongue, warm kuroshio, warm canary, cool gulf stream tongue, the whole shebang. only meaningful difference is a slightly less amped ENSO box (but spatial footprint is identical). 500mb heights: negative north atlantic/positive ridge in nw pacific, euro trough, even the amplitude is 10–15m stronger in 2025. this is NOT a “mixed” or “confused” state; it’s a classic pattern that opens the mdr in july/aug. 850mb zonal wind: 2025’s got even stronger easterlies across the ITCZ and eastern atlantic than 2004. you can see the subtropical jet setting up the early wave train survival conditions. precip: i’ll give you one—caribbean is dry in may 2025 vs 2004. but here’s the rub: 2004’s caribbean went green after may, with the mjo pulse in july flipping the script. same signal is showing up for this year (see euro weeklies, july mjo inbound). so, the only thing your “composite” is flagging is a temporary lag, not a brick wall. and now you’ve got these model simps acting like it’s 2013 all over again. get to specsavers mate: 2013 had cold mdr, warm subtropics, persistent positive 850mb westerly anomaly across the deep tropics (shear guillotine), and a euro ridge/ne-pac ridge that shut down vorticity. none of that is in play for 2025. not even close. 2025 is literally painting the same pre-season canvas as 2004, which—reminder—delivered 6 majors and ace near 230, not some washed-out 2013 flop. about relying on “traditional models”—are we still pretending these things have skill past 5 days, let alone months out? how many times do we have to watch the same csu/noaa/ukmet parade get pantsed by reality before we admit the emperor’s got no clothes? they chase composites and ensemble means, but can’t see the actual synoptic pattern unfolding under their nose. weather doesn’t care about your python scripts or your github repo. show me a model that nailed the timing and location of landfalls last year. oh wait, you can’t. composites are for people who are scared to make a call. if you want to “average out” the signal, you’ll always see “mixed” because that’s what happens when you blur out all the structure. but you look at actual years—like 2004—and stack up every large-scale lever (ssts, heights, zonal wind, rainfall)—and it’s obvious: the levers are cocked for a proper atlantic rager. so stop cherry-picking, stop hiding behind composite copium, and stop acting like the models have any real predictive power for seasonal skill. 2004 is the analog, 2025 is the set-up, and if you want to wait for a model to tell you it’s “active” you’ll be left holding your own busted forecast when the mdr lights up. and if you’re still not convinced, go back to the pics i posted. you’ll see every driver lining up except the caribbean box in may—which, again, flips anyway as soon as the monsoon fires up. no amount of spreadsheeting or composite averaging can erase the fact that the real synoptic features are all lined up for another major season. so crack open a can of stella and watch the bearish lot and composite-copers try to explain it all away when the waves start rolling.

right here we go again lads i see the s2k lot are still banging on about their “mixed signals” and there are even those on stormiest cherry-picking years like 2013 out of thin air — absolute bollocks if you ask me. now i see ustropics and his mates are wheeling out the composite charts and parroting the “composite average of the to 10 ace years” line like it means something in a real-life season. let me be clear: composites are for people who can’t handle nuance and want a mushy middle ground that doesn’t reflect reality. you might as well take a pint of every beer in the pub, mix it together, and say it tastes like “the average british lager.” it’s pure cope. we get they've got a “professional-met” badge but acting like blending together a bunch of rando “top 10 ace” years doesn't necessarily give you some oracular vision. mate, all your composite proves is you know how to use numpy.mean, not that you understand what actually drives an active season. blending 2004, 2005, 2020, and 2017 together just smooths out every real signal, like pureeing your roast dinner in a nutribullet and calling it cuisine. storms don’t care about your composite, they care about the actual synoptic set-up in real analog years. let me just break this down for yous properly since clearly none of those lot can read a bloody map innit first of all let’s have a gander at these SST anomalies, shall we? look at your own maps—ive even bloody uploaded them right here for ya. compare 2004 to 2025. almost spot on. kuroshio current warm, canary current warm, cool gulf stream tongue, and your enso cold tongue—there’s your teleconnection skeleton for ya. identical mate. absolutely identical. your eyes struggling? go spec-savers then right lets talk geopotential heights since you lot love that fancy terminology—again, look at the maps ive given ya. 2004 vs 2025 again. spot the difference? barely any. you’ve got your trough in europe, negative heights N Atl and NE Pac—classic azores weak high set-up. slightly deeper trough this year actually so even MORE bullish if you know what you’re looking at—which clearly most of yous don’t zonal winds at 850mb—have a look at the images ive so kindly provided again—classic 2004 dipole pattern with your easterlies going strong across ITCZ subtropics again. stronger easterlies this year if anything. translation: LESS early-season shear this year, more opportunity for storms. simples innit? now lets talk about the rainfall anomalies—yes yes, the one bloody difference you lot have latched onto like a drowning man onto driftwood. “ohhh but the Caribbean’s dry”—yeah right, have you ever looked at historical weeklies or are you just copy-pasting from some NOAA composite? if you bothered to look properly, you’d see this dry Caribbean bollocks is just a timing issue, happens every other big season before the monsoon and MJO surge in july. ive even included 2020 as proof—a notoriously active year that started dry in the Caribbean as well. your “dry Caribbean” is literally just waiting for the MJO to flip the switch mid-july. watch and learn and for the 2013 comparison over on stormcast—what absolute rubbish, who pulled that one out of their arse? 2013 had cold MDR SSTs, warm subtropics, westerlies blowing all over the bloody tropics, a huge euro ridge blocking vorticity. completely opposite to 2025—use your eyes for goodness sake. it’s not even close to being in the same ballpark let alone solar system. comparing 2025 to 2013 is like comparing apples to cabbages look—2004 delivered 15 named storms, 9 hurricanes, 6 bloody majors, ACE of 227, and four US landfalling majors. i didnt just pull these numbers out my backside—its literally history. same pattern this year, same setup, and the atmosphere is MORE favourable this time around, not less my forecast is 17-10-4/5, ACE 190—and I bet you I would be labelled bullish. those lot stuck in your NOAA and CSU echo chambers are the bearish boomers here, hanging onto composites that hide the real story. if you think my forecast is “bullish” you’ve got another thing coming—im just calling it how it is, based on historical precedent, real patterns, and actual atmospheric dynamics—not NPC seasonal composites or broken models wake up and smell the coffee, lads—2004 is your clean analog, your “mixed signals” is cope, and your “dry Caribbean” claim is about to get utterly shredded when the MJO flips later this month mark my words, ill be back in september to remind ya when the first Cape Verde monster spins up and all you mixed-signal merchants scatter faster than roaches when the lights flick on absolute state of forecasting these days—stick to your Netflix subscriptions and retirement homes if you cant keep up, leave the real forecasting to those of us who can actually see past composite means and NOAA’s “mixed signal” fantasies rant over, and god save the bloody king This is in response to this s2k user claim: and this stormcast user:

are you on a vpn? have you tried another browser?

below average in gta 5

it won't happen

K

How do I quote the user then

TO ALL BEARISH POSTERS AND WX METS: The MDR has been rapidly warming during the last two weeks! June 25: 26.76C (0.00C anomaly) July 10: 27.33C (0.38C anomaly) It's currently getting close to the +0.60C value we had in 2020 (YES, the spam year) at this time of the year. Give it another two weeks of similar warming, wed be around the same level as 2005 (one of my analogs along with 2005, 2017, 1996, 2021).

Category5Kaiju has great points He should visit here

L to EPS Caribbean shear

RIP Andy's Netflix subscription

The ocean doesn’t care about bearish feelings the atmosphere doesn’t care about bearish feelings clinatology doesn’t care about bearish feelings Fwiw EPS has it finally returning to a favorable phase the first half of August. I know in recent years we've mostly had to wait until the final two weeks of the month for activity, but I would assume this would open a potential window in the deep tropics around that timeframe. 1 likes

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“Bullish” = opinion of a younger person got it

So you’re saying you’re ignoring them because they’re not a boomer Got it and “permabull” = nobody cares. They usually end up being right. Bearish posts = almost always ends up being wrong at some point and that’s why I will continue to predict a 2017 type season Bearish posts are always made by down casters who think emotionally and not realistically bearish posts always point out their povs by using broken models that usually turn out to be wrong anyway the bearish posts usually end up being from wishcasters who want a break from activity but let’s face it that ain’t happening anytime soon so let me get this straight if you’re not a boomer your take = permabull therefore = doesn’t count got it permabull = the guy who’s actually right meanwhile “bearish” posts always “models say”—then models flop every. single. time. it’s always the same bearish = just wishcasters who want to binge netflix and not hear about storms for 3 months never fails they get one “stable pattern” in may june July even early or mid august, think it’s a break year by August or september they’re radio silent when’s the last time a bearish preseason post aged well ian and Fiona are chomping on popcorn as I speak seriously and the whole “permabull” thing just means you’re under 50 and notice the basin hasn’t had a real bust in like 10 years but yeah, keep filtering out anyone who isn’t typing like a boomer newsflash: ocean doesn’t care about your feelings bearish = broken model hopium permabull = actually right