Atlantic - Caribbean Sea - Gulf of America
Tropical Weather Outlook (en Español*) 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025
Tropical Weather Discussion 1215 UTC Sun Jun 29 2025
Tropical Storm Barry
Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive
...AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATES DEPRESSION HAS BECOME TROPICAL STORM BARRY STANTON... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUING OVER EASTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Recent satellite data indicates that the low pressure system located
more than 600 miles east-northeast of Bermuda is producing
gale-force winds. However, the shower and thunderstorm activity
remains dogshit. Environmental conditions are still marginally
favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm
activity could result in the formation of a crappy short-lived tropical
depression or tropical storm today or tonight. By Tuesday, this
system is expected to encounter shitty environmental
conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is
forecast to move northeastward around 10 to 15 mph, remaining over
the open central Atlantic. For additional information, including
gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National
Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
lol
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in
association with an area of the low pressure located about 450 miles
east of Bermuda. Earlier satellite-derived wind data indicated the
system possessed a well-defined surface circulation, and additional
organization of the shower and thunderstorm activity could lead to
the formation of a short-lived tropical depression over the next day
or so. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less
favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for
further development. Regardless of development, the system is
forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10 mph, remaining over the
open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 22 2025
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic:
A trough of low pressure located about 500 miles east-southeast
of Bermuda is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days before it moves into a region of strong upper-level
winds. This system is expected to move northeastward over the
central Atlantic during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi
Hurricane Erick
Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive
Special Advisory products have been issued. Use links below for details.
...ERICK NOW AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
12:00 AM CST Thu Jun 19
Location: 15.5°N 97.5°W
Moving: NW at 9 mph
Min pressure: 939 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph
Public
I heard someone had a dream last week (when Dalila was active) of logging onto the NHC front page and seeing a Category 4 off the west coast of Mexico, well before models started to initialize
Look what we have here now
EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST OF ATLANTIC SEASONAL HURRICANE
ACTIVITY AND LANDFALL STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR 2025
(as of 11 June 2025)
By Philip J. Klotzbach1, Michael M. Bell2, and Levi G. Silvers3
1ATLANTIC BASIN SEASONAL HURRICANE FORECAST FOR 2025
Forecast Parameter and 1991–2020
Average (in parentheses)
Issue Date
3 April
2025
Issue Date
11 June
2025
Named Storms (14.4) 17 17
Named Storm Days (69.4) 85 85
Hurricanes (7.2) 9 9
Hurricane Days (27.0) 35 35
Major Hurricanes (3.2) 4 4
Major Hurricane Days (7.4) 9 9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index (123) 155 155
ACE West of 60°W (73) 93 93
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity (135%) 165 165
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5)
HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL
AREAS:
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 51% (average from 1880–2020 is 43%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida (south and east of Cedar Key,
Florida) – 26% (average from 1880–2020 is 21%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle (west and north of Cedar Key, Florida)
westward to Brownsville – 33% (average from 1880–2020 is 27%)