BarryStantonGBP

it is ogre chances this develops into a bonafide tc?

someone please explain this @ed I thought Erin would become the african wave but idk now: TomballEd Category 2 Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Discussion #8 Sun Aug 03, 2025 11:58 am Obviously still tied to the front and the center is elongated but this could go sub-tropical storm at any time depending who is on the shift at NHC. Will never amount to much, will be a low end storm and GFS weakens it quickly in a couple of days, but GFS suggests a future Dexter may have a sister Erin, which would also be weak but would have East Coast impacts

Hi! 3. Off the Southeastern United States: An area of low pressure could form in a couple of days a few hundred miles southeast of the Carolinas. Some gradual development of this system is possible by midweek as the system drifts to the northwest. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

AND THE AOI BLEW UP MORE LMAO 2. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by late Monday. Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is possible, and a tropical depression could form late this week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

1. Western Atlantic (AL95): Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles east of the North Carolina coast. While satellite wind data show that the low is now producing gale-force winds, the system remains attached to a frontal boundary. However, environmental conditions are conducive for this system to acquire additional tropical characteristics, and a tropical storm is likely to form by Monday well east of the North Carolina coast. LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

2. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in the next day or two. Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

HA HA 1. Western Atlantic (AL95): A non-tropical area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary about 180 miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for this system to become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm today or on Monday while it moves east-northeastward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of North Carolina. After Monday, environmental conditions become less conducive for development. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent. 2. Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa in the next day or two. Thereafter, some gradual development of the wave is possible during the middle to latter part of next week while it moves generally west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

lmao 1. Western Atlantic (AL95): A non-tropical area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary about 180 miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally conducive for this system to become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm today or on Monday while it moves east-northeastward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of North Carolina. After Monday, environmental conditions become less conducive for development. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

In which sequence do they form

1. Western Atlantic (AL95): A non-tropical area of low pressure located along a frontal boundary about 180 miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable for this system to potentially become a tropical or subtropical depression or storm today or on Monday while it moves east-northeastward at about 10 mph, away from the coast of North Carolina. Environmental conditions become less conducive for development after Monday. For additional information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percen

lmao haha Invest 95LAs of 06:00 UTC Aug 03, 2025: Location: 33.2°N 73.5°WMaximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: N/AMinimum Central Pressure: 1010 mbEnvironmental Pressure: N/ARadius of Circulation: N/ARadius of Maximum wind: 50 nm

I translated them into NS

Thoughts on how I mapped how each NS might go? Anything you’d change?

TomballEd points out the possible "Erin"

I used the Euro models (weeklies/sub-seasonal range forecast) and somehow came up with: Dexter: 8-10 Aug, NW Gulf, C1 Erin: 12 - 16 Aug, EC FL swell, MDR, brush, C3 Fernand: 19 - 24 Aug, gyre NE Gulf, TS Gabs: 27 Aug - 2 Sep, Caribbean - NE Gulf, C2 Humberto: wait until September (or the very last day of August, probably CV long track), C4 I personally see 4 NS just based on the Euros alone Thoughts?

How many NS are predicting for august chap?

SAINT LEZAK HAS SPOKEN Tropical Development Windows Are Approaching Two Key LRC Predictions Are Already in the Forecast The next three weeks mark a critical transition in the tropics. As Saharan dust slowly retreats and the thunderstorm activity increases over the open Atlantic, Gulf, and Caribbean Sea, we are forecasting a much more favorable environment for tropical development. In fact, two of our key LRC-based tropical windows—predicted months ago—are expected to show up soon. These are not random guesses. These are precise forecast targets based on storm energy identified last fallthat is now cycling back through the pattern. As you’ll see in the graphic below, the timing and placement of these systems align directly with the Weather 20/20 LRC predictions that have been part of our Tropical Outlook Guide since spring. We’ll continue to track these windows closely in our daily updates and highlight what’s coming next a week from now in our early August Tropical Update next Saturday. Conclusion: A Quiet Start, But a Pattern-Driven Storm Season Awaits While the hurricane season has begun on a quiet note, we are not fooled by the calm—and you shouldn’t be either. The Saharan dust outbreaks and persistent summer anticyclone have done their job suppressing early activity, but the LRC tells a deeper story. We’re entering a new phase now—one where multiple tropical windows, renewed storm energy, and shifting jet stream dynamics begin to align. As we’ve shown throughout this report, the pattern is right on schedule. https://weather2020.substack.com/p/tropics-stay-quiet-impacts-from-saharan

this possibly could be the E storm based on the ECMWF probability models

barbie came out

will post them here as they get released (nobody will read them anyway) mh h ts td/ptc ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- atlantic andrea ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- eastern pacific alvin barbara dalila flossie

it's 2017 again

atlantic about to go off https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_tcyc_family_frequency?base_time=202507290000&parameter=Accumulated cyclone energy&valid_time=202509010000

tutt 2025-2025 lest we forget