CurlyHeadBarrett

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

If it’s in the MDR, mog hard lol

What about Ernesto?

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I just think Climo will keep 94L & 95L in check a bit. Maybe enough to get a name, but not enough to become a major hurricane. Shear or at the very least trade winds will probably be a factor in the Caribbean. Today’s runs on 95L were interesting though. 

Debby probably arrives late July/early August.  All speculation of course.

Yeah I’ve posted some twitter thread on 95L on the designated thread. Jfl at the moggers the Euro is drawing up 

and do you think Debby will mog hard or just some slopmaxxer?

The 12z Euro is giga aggressive, has a mogger low-end Cat 4 in the western Caribbean at +216. This would be very weird for July.

Jfl at the 2005 comparison

it’s ogre

https://x.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1806056643374805498

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

haha I mean I am Gen Z. just turned 25

anyway this season does look bad. don't see how this is anything but active. if not hyper

And I’m almost 29. 
I wonder when our first mogger hurricane might come about. Me thinks Ernesto but I’m not too sure

2 hours ago, rclab said:

 

 

I’m 5+ decades older and that why, to me, this tread is a gas. Stay vocal, as always …..

Fr? How long have you been tracking?

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Well this place is active  

I feel 

Debby

Why debby and when do you think she will come?

2 hours ago, Intensewind002 said:

Maybe lmao, half the older gen zs dont even know it

Only the very young ones?

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

will beryl rizz up livvy dunne in Ohio? will she mog baby gronk? would be skibidi

Or will beryl mog Adriana Lima?

2 hours ago, wxmx said:

It's "just" the Euro model. I remember a GFS run back in 2007 that totally got Dean's track/timing/intensity right like 2 weeks in advance

Surprised it was gfs

jfl it's over

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Western Caribbean/Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL94):
A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing 
disorganized shower activity while it moves rapidly westward at 
around 25 mph.  Environmental conditions could become more conducive 
for some gradual development in a couple of days over the western 
Caribbean Sea or over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the 
weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located a few hundred miles southwest of the 
Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Some development is possible during the next several 
days, and a tropical depression could form over the tropical 
Atlantic by the end of the week or this weekend while the system 
moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Pasch/Roberts

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

951 mb at 240 coming onto the coast of the Yucatan!

Which model is this?

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

For TW SW of CV:

 12Z Euro is much stronger as it has a TS on 7/1 in the Lesser Antilles and a hurricane later on in the Caribbean!

 I’m pretty sure we’ll need a separate thread for this soon.

What peak? 

23 minutes ago, Intensewind002 said:

Damn I thought I was the youngest person on here too lol. I’m 24 but I always assume everyone is at least a decade older than me

Am I the only Millennial that knows all this slang?

What if Beryl or Chris cross basins and Bonniemaxxes?

https://x.com/BhatiaKieran/status/1805939163570540877

47 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

as a GenZer i am thoroughly horrified.

 

Why are you horrified, and at what?

47 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

Having 2013 as the top analog based on the last 30 days is interesting.

 

Where does it say?

47 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

The Western Atlantic is much warmer this year though, so I think 2024 is different where it matters for an Atlantic season. The presence of vigorous Cape Verde waves this early is a strong sign like 2017.

 

Do you think 2024 will mog 2017?

Will Beryl and Chris mog or will they be looksmatched with Bret from last year?

Let’s see if it’s just EPS hypemaxxing or if they’ll mog Bertha to Bikini Bottom and back.

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

I am thinking one of those, not leaning particularly toward Deb or Ernesto. Could even be both, for all we know.

For them to be majors?

I’m thinking Ernesto tbh, sounds like a chad and looks like that name belongs on a mogger hurricane.

Also I think he might come after a lull, I dunno.

But imagine if Deb and Ernesto are twin moggers.

2 hours ago, Jebman said:

If you dont mind, I'd really appreciate it if you would correct me, I want to learn correct usage of these terms in the context of hurricane season.

Ian mogs Idalia to the depths of the Gulf because he was a category 5 and did more damage than Idalia.

no problem I will correct you as well as the season goes on.

29 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Debby or Ernesto.

Leaning towards which one of these two?

43 minutes ago, Jebman said:

No doubt about it. 2024 will turbomog all other seasons so far. 

Let’s see if it happens. Going to wait for the first real mogger storm to get a feel but I hope they don’t mog too much buildings.

50 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Hurricane Ian sure rizzed things up!

And he mogs Idalia to the depths of the Gulf.

50 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I absolutely love all the new terms! Please get us all up to speed!

Old dogs can learn new tricks!

I will as the season goes on I’ll update the glossary

2 hours ago, Normandy said:

Jesus we got a youngin here talking all crazy.  Talking slang and shit.  
 

I’m almost 29 so not that young but I wish I were again jfl

2 hours ago, Normandy said:

This season is about to slang out a bunch of storms towards land this year.  You can already tell how west based all the development is so far.  Climate models thus far are nailing it

I wonder around which name we would start to see the moggers coming in.

3 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

That’s tough. I personally think this year might have quality over quantity (unlike say 2020). I wouldn’t be surprised if we busted under in terms of ACE, but I think it’s likely we will be tracking some formidable systems.

 

around which name do you think we will start to see the moggers come in?

3 hours ago, tiger_deF said:

For being so concise your slang list is no cap, fr man

Thank you, fr man!

30 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Sorry, one of two Gen Z

 

Thoughts on the slang glossary (I'm a millennial) I wrote up?

30 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

Anyway it’s looking more and more likely that we will get some June/July MDR action. Major SAL outbreak is going to dampen activity some, but conditions will be quite favorable otherwise.

How many NS do you think we'd get?

Buckle up buddy boyos

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1805757386172645664

By late June-early July standards, the overall environment looks unusually conducive for tropical development over the east-central MDR next week. A few easterly waves will get tangled up with a pair of Convectively Coupled Kelvin Waves (CCKWs), favoring much lower than average wind shear, a generally divergent upper-level environment, & high deep-layer moisture, all superposed onto an exceptionally warm tropical Atlantic. Recent bullish trends in NWP models are likely real & a response to the leading/ascending phase of the CCKW approaching the tropical Atlantic.