Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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Crazy-if you told me on 8/19 that we'd have 2 months of essentially no rain I'd have laughed.
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Nature balancing out the previous wet year.
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Yep dry and cold for 3 days then back to the warmth
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Had a brief downpour here around 6:30-enough to settle the dust
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Looks bleak for any rain south of say I-84 tonight
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That will be dropped down to 30-40% by the 4pm package in my opinion...same pattern all fall
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Euro is good for rain but other models remain well north.
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Wonder if the CONT US is in for a dry winter....
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Pre-emptive shutoff?
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Yeah I don't get it. It'll all be flooded even if you stay so what's there to protect? I think some just don't think it's going to happen...
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The storm is moving in the same direction as the shear however....should mitigate some of that?
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Read more, post less
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once you get 80 miles from the center there's not much action-it's a small compact storm.
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in between plane runs to the storm...next one is at 5:30 Eastern I think
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That will keep any land interaction to a minimum....
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Some of that may be after Landfall?
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Global Models are initializing too high so I wouldn't rely on them for pressure....
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Mostly green here too. Today's rain was nice to settle the dust lol
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Pressure too high on initialization so hard to say what it hits as-use globals for track but not intensity?
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That was the one-but it was moving E to W and perhaps pulled into Cuba....this one might be repelled a bit given the W to E motion?
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ICON also initialized at 981-not even close
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Wont matter much for surge but even a 100MPH windfield into Tampa is going to be terrible. Some good discussion over on the tropical forum here.
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Nice dose of much needed rain this morning here about .50
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Looks like a SE movement right now-has time to make the turn more E then ENE/NE but if it doesn't it would be obviously weaker with any Yucatan interaction or even a LF there.
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Wont matter that much in terms of surge though-that's baked it once it hits Cat 4-5. Wind damage less of course
