Brian5671
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Everything posted by Brian5671
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had to move my flight out of LGA to Sunday-too risky to go Saturday given the model spread-one time I left it be and got stuck for 15 hrs there
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I think the big solutions are mostly off the table except SE New England. I'd take a wind whipped 4-8 and run
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Sometimes the outlier is the correct solution, it has had roughly the same output for 10 plus runs. Big 12z runs today.
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another run another solution....verbatim crappy for most of our area with north winds bringing in dry air
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Western outlier. Needs support from something else
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most of the heavy precip is SE New England though -
even if the euro is good-need to see something else agree with it-for now it's an western outlier
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the lack of atlantic blocking too-both AO and NAO are positive.
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it's tough when you're relying on a capture...usually happens further N and E than expected. The good news is we are 2 days out instead of 6 hrs.
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nightmares of Jan 2015 fooled again by the Euro and Nam
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if this comes back it would be a Boxing day type miracle but that one had blocking. +NAO/+AO here.
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has Kuchera ever been right? IT's the weenie model printout like the Euro control
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Kuchera? LOL. If you do 10-1 it's slightly SE from 12z
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the trends are terrible for this. Not gospel but today sucked.
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GFS barely gets any precip into NYC
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same trends everything is leaking east....
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I should have phrased that better-new data meaning something came ashore that was not previously sampled.
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I wonder if they are getting some new data....
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something like that. I think NYC got an inch or two in the end. Had about 10 out here but a far cry from 18-24 predicted
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I stopped doing that years ago-need my sleep-just log on here first thing in the morning and read 5 posts and that's enough to tell where it's going lol
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yep but all guidance has moved east today-until that stops.....
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I sure did-who wouldn't be excited by a solution like that?!?!?
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No that was about 2-3 days out as well...kind of like what we're seeing today-I remember that one-the PV crushed everything south
