Brian5671
-
Posts
41,530 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Brian5671
-
Yeah but as bluewave notes above we keep slowly pushing back. Need PAC help or we're just trapping pac polar air right now....
-
Yep got down to 21 here-everything coated in frost...
-
I'll take it-think it's 12/20 and beyond for anything cold/snowy for the immediate coast. Got to get fresh arctic air this time of year... Inland different story.
-
I deleted it. Both have lousy pac airmasses unfortunately.
-
yeah it will be awhile before we get good cold air mass in....
-
Stormy wet pattern continues. Summer drought has been completely wiped out.
-
That 35 in Fairfield is bogus. We had about 25-30 here. Hard to tell with all the drifting.
-
Dec 2010. Dec 2017 was cold the last week into Jan with the blizzard ending that cold spell.
-
Certainly possible. Pattern changes were forecast in years like 01-02, 05-06, 11-12, 19-20 that never came and were always 10 days out. Twitter and Facebook posts have made it all the worse with hype and clickbait. Keep expectations low for now, it's still early winter so lots of time for the goods to be delivered.
-
Pattern change keeps moving out in time which isn't surprising, models always rush pattern change. Even so, might get back to 0 or average for temps depending on when it actually changes or how cold the air ends up.
-
first half of the month will be +2 to +3 that will be hard to erase.
-
taking the under due to climo but I like blocking in Dec-bodes well for add'l blocking later in the season.
-
Social media has made this hobby brutal. All sort of garbage out there that you have to sift through. Always look at "what could go wrong" It will temper expectations.
-
JB posted about 3 Decembers that were a "warm -NAO" Dec 1996, Dec 1970 and another maybe in the 60's. This could be one of them but let's hope not. The warm water off the coast is another element that makes analogs somewhat less worthy....
-
People hear what they want to hear. The pattern was still in the day 10-15 range which is way out there and subject to drastic changes....
-
December 2010 had a temp departure of almost -5. I didn't realize it was that cold but as Bluewave noted we did not have the warm pool of water off the east coast back then. That certainly changes the equation....
-
Not sure why some are giving play by play on OP runs at day 8 10 and beyond (not just here but elsewhere)
-
It's better than the CMC but I would not buy into ANY OP model past day 5 or 6 tops.
-
CMC is an awful model not sure why anyone looks at it. And the pattern is not what was modeled a few days ago-changes have occurred and they are not good. Kicking the can forward most likely which may not be a bad thing if you want snow for the holidays....
-
I think Forky is right-look to xmas week and beyond-this will take time to set up...
-
First 2 weeks look to be above normal. Question is the last 2 weeks-any further delay in the pattern could lead to an above normal month or if we get a "Warm" NAO block like Dec 1996.
-
Difficult to get cold Decembers with that warm water off the coast...A met once said "hit and hold cold" on the east coast is tough with warm water early on, but later in the winter it's our friend with fuel for nor easters etc
-
yeah I don't get the play by play on day 7 or even day 10 OP model runs...
-
Supression could be an issue if the blocking is too much...
-
yeah unlike some other years (2014, 2020) where we had the snow/cold early/mid month and then we got the usual xmas torch, this time frame looks better for the white xmas
