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Brian5671

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Everything posted by Brian5671

  1. Brian5671
    I think the real question now is where does the decaying low end up stalling/pivoting before being shunted ESE and out to sea?
  2. Brian5671
    yeah but the initial batch is much weaker....it now delivers Sunday night and Monday which is a somewhat new development that some other models are showing now.
  3. Brian5671
    CMC finally jumps ship and is much drier for tomorrow....LOL
  4. Brian5671
    Turned off the Central air here last week with the cold front hoping to be done for the year...
  5. Brian5671
    weaker precip with wave 1 but gets up to CT/MA border
  6. Brian5671
    rains into Monday like the RGEM-the wildcard is the decaying low and where that stalls/slows to a crawl...
  7. Brian5671
    that's part of the reason no one mentions rain busting....if the forecast is for 2 inches and it rains .50, it's still a rainy day-with snow everyone's hollering bust when it happens
  8. Brian5671
    CMC:
  9. Brian5671
    CMC and RGEM have been consistently wet...if their solutions happen it's a big coup as they have showed it for a week The RGEM is still raining for most of CT/RI at hour 84
  10. Brian5671
    yep a half inch of rain spread over a day isn't much different that 2 inches...
  11. Brian5671
    We all get more rain Sunday as the decaying low moves up through the delmarva...so will be a question of 2 waves and how much from each wave...
  12. Brian5671
    Euro looks like UKMET-struggles to get precip inland from the initial wave
  13. Brian5671
    yeah gets almost nothing here....
  14. Brian5671
    my bad I deleted it.
  15. Brian5671
    High wind watches too for SNJ and DE
  16. Brian5671
    12Z NAM-still raining over most of the area at the end of the run -
  17. Brian5671
    doesn't the NAM often overdo tropical systems?
  18. Brian5671
    it's where the people live....
  19. Brian5671
    Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane Nigel, located over the central subtropical Atlantic. 1. Off the Southeastern United States Coast (AL99): Updated...A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Florida peninsula continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to form within this area by early Friday, and there are increasing chances that this system could acquire some tropical or subtropical characteristics on Friday or early Saturday while it moves generally northward toward the coast of North Carolina. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, this low is likely to bring tropical storm force winds, heavy rain, coastal flooding, and high surf to portions of the southeast and mid-Atlantic United States coastline on Friday and into the weekend. Tropical Storm watches or warnings could be required for this system as soon as later this morning. Additional information on this system, including storm and gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts and products from your local National Weather Service office. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
  20. Brian5671
    yep looks like crap both days especially CT/RI/SE MA
  21. Brian5671
    Models have sped up the timing and as stated above, there's a 2nd piece now for Sunday showing up.
  22. Brian5671
    CMC took a jump east from its earlier runs and is likely correcting to the other guidance. NAM is out of range at this juncture....
  23. Brian5671
    let's get it to really miss now and get a dry weekend....
  24. Brian5671
  25. Brian5671
    Maybe. It's a semi tropical system that has yet to really form so maybe models struggling given that?
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