09-10 analogy

Real localized disappointment in upper NW. Rain, not much wind, thunder and lightning on the periphery. Last evening it looked like the N Bethesda storm could get us here as well but the core of it stayed NW. Then another cell shortly afterwards seemed to be riding the NW boundary between DC and MD on radar, aimed squarely at MBY, but it seemed as if it just pulsed out right overhead. These things are really hit and miss usually, but that's nothing new. Maybe better luck today.

There must have been some cannonading going by somewhere close a few hours ago, but only flickers and some low rolls in Tenleytown. But like another poster noted, it's still nice to be woken up by a thunderstorm, even if you're being fringed, in the middle of the night. Curious thing is, I slept right through a big storm we had earlier this year, maybe in April.

This is possibly the worst outbreak for SC since 1984?

Miss north. A few bursts of rain, distant thunder, but more or less noneventful in up nw. Probably less impact from this system in Tenleytown than from anywhere in a crescent from E TX to NJ.

SPC Meso still shows a pocket of 1000-1500 SBCAPE south and west of DC. Maybe something for the second or third line to work with?

Mostly overcast in upper NW. Maybe that little eruption about to cross the Potomac and ride the DC/MONTCO border will make things exciting around here. EDIT: And just like that, a downpour starts.

Don't normally see too many PDS TOR soundings around here. EDIT: Just for the doing of it, looked up some parameters just prior to La Plata: 0-1 km SRH: 253 m2 s-2 0-3 km SRH: 243 m2 s-2 0-1 km bulk shear: 32 kt 0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt Taken from: http://www.tornadohead.com/storhodos.htm

I'm just south of all that and I slept right through it. That's rare; I'm a light sleeper. There are some trees down in AU Park so it must have been pretty rambunctious IMBY.

Quite the squall coming through. Don't think it's as potent as it is up MOCO way however.

Will never forget the smell of gasoline fumes from all the cars stuck in traffic when I walked down the major arterials. Plus a good bit of thundersnow with that one

0.5” as of 415

My side street beginning to whiten up a bit. I was wrong but usually am in these matters.

Everything but streets and sidewalks covering up nicely.

Here they are. Waiting for my kid in my car at the bus stop and it’s mod to heavy snow all around

Mixy now. But where be these rumored “fatties” I hear tell of? The flakes I’m seeing are all on the South Beach Diet or something. And even those are sparse now.

The race between the changeover and back edge does not lend confidence to seeing anything much accumulate around T-town.

Still mostly -RN in up nw, a flake mixing in but rarely.

Grass and cars covering up in upper NW but hearing pinging now and then. The old SN/IP go-between.

If I see one flake stick to a grassy surface for more than 30 seconds, I'll consider this an overperformer. Not that I'll be looking that conscientiously.

That's probably the January 2005 snowstorm. One of the great screwjobs in DC history. Probably a Miller B deal: NYC and Philly both got a foot, NE/Boston got a historic monster, Baltimore may have eked out a few inches. DC got squat; textbook middle finger event around here. I'll take the 99-00 analog. Great last part of January.. Just looked up the 2004-5 season. DCA got 12.5". There have been much worse. But that doesn't begin to alleviate the pain of the kind of shafting Jan 21-22 2005 delivered. 99-00 delivered 15.4, not much more than 04-05, but it included the Big Honking Surprise of Jan 25, which to me boosts my estimation of that winter higher than the seasonal total would warrant.

So, 16 days of Dorian. Sure seems like it was a lot longer.

I gotta say, the journalistic philosophy of Bahamas Press, at least from its social media content, seems to have a distinctly yellow tint to it. Most assuredly places like Abaco have been brutalized and there are fatalities, maybe a good number. And maybe the Bahamanian authorities' response is not ideal. Not surprising there, as this is a nationwide catastrophe that no amount of planning, I would think, could prepare for. But BP with its ALL CAPS AND EXCLAMATION POINTS! rhetorical style reminds me of some of the less savory approaches used by other media outlets whose claims of objectivity sour with their ready recourse to unsupported accusations of deliberate negligence. Of course the press should hold the authorities accountable. But darkly assuming the PM is deliberately lying about fatalities, when parts of the Bahamas are still getting pounded by Dorain, may or may not be irresponsible, but certainly isn't helpful. At least now. And if they do take that tack, which is certainly within the right of a free media (which I assume the Bahamas has), then maybe the organization shouldn't present itself as strictly reportage, which to me it seems to do. I know this is OT even for the banter board, so if it's deleted, that's OK. As someone in media, I just wanted to get my impression out there, see how others are reacting to BP.

eh, not quite was I was hoping for ...

Actually have a good feeling on this second round T&L wise. I think we could be in for a show.

The T&L with that first round was some of the best this season. Wasn't much of it, but it meant business when it unloaded. Wind didn't exactly bowl me over though. With all the storms in my immediate vicinity this season, only one that I can recall has had decent wind. Cloudbursts, hail, possible wall cloud, yeah, but I don't think IMBY I've approached severe wind criteria (58+) all season. Notoriously difficult to judge, of course, (well, for me at least, even with my Skywarn training) without a weather station/anemometer. Western sky was looking ominous there for a while with round 2, but nasomuch now. Still hearing distant thunder. I always love daytime storms where you hear the thunder half an hour before the event actually hits, the thunder getting louder as the storm approaches. Subjectively speaking, that kind of evolution doesn't seem to happen as much as it did when I was younger, but I'm sure that's just observer/misty memory bias. And I'm a sucker for days with 3 or more rounds of storms. I'd almost rather have three rounds of decent storms instead of one big one (unless we're talking derecho or June 2008 -- which had multiple rounds anyway -- or July 2010).