BuffaloWeather

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Big changes amongst the 29/12Z guidance packages in regards to p- type and the eventual track of the sfc low. Cold front eases into the region on Wednesday with a mix of rain/snow. After that it`s all up in the air to what happens. ECMWF guidance...has gone even colder with this update and has significantly pushed the track of the sfc low well to our ESE of the region. This would mean an all snow for the event but would also shift the heavier snowfall amounts almost out of our area. Canadian- NH...it too is colder but not quite as aggressive with the ESE push of the sfc low. GFS guidance...this is the warmer solution and has maintained the track of the sfc low through the Ohio Valley NE across Western and North Central NY. That said, the GFS track is also "NOT" climatologically favorable but it can`t be rule out either. The key to this event will likely be the timing and then eventual placement of the 850 hPa thermal boundary. Way too early to know exactly where it sets up or even stalls...if it does at all (see..ECMWF). So with this update (low confidence)...have again leaned on a blend of all solutions to get a middle of the road picture. Lots can and will likely change between now and the Wednesday evening through Thursday night time frame. Friday and beyond, it looks fairly straight forward with a colder air mass filtering into the region. There will also likely be some accumulating lake snows ESE of the lakes which then slowly diminish over the weekend.

Erie you let me down this year. You had so much potential and only one really good event. Cold and dry was the motto. I'll see you next year.

The strongest band is widening and starting its pivot. I think Logan beats its all timer

https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBOS.html

Feel pretty confident Boston will have its biggest ever snowstorm today. Pretty incredible. Logan was over 17" at 2 pm. Likely over 19" by now. https://www.boston.com/weather/local-news/2022/01/28/top-10-boston-area-snowstorms-on-record/ Feb. 18, 2003: 27.6 inches Feb. 7, 1978: 27.1 inches April 1, 1997: 25.4 inches Feb. 9, 2013: 24.9 inches Jan. 27, 2015: 24.4 inches Feb. 17, 2003: 23.6 inches Jan. 23, 2005: 22.5 inches Jan. 28, 2015: 22.3 inches Feb. 9, 2015: 22.2 inches Jan. 21, 1978: 21.4 inches

Ruined 20 years of my childhood as a Bills fan. Still the GOAT of any sport of all time. Respect to him.

Some good trends there. Those are high totals for an EPS mean.

Yeah I guess my point was Ensembles can make make some pretty big run to run changes. Obviously not as big as OP models can.

A few days after, closer to the event they were pretty warm though. From Tuesday.

CIPS analogs. I like the look http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/DFHR.php?reg=MV&fhr=F132&rundt=2022012912&map=thbCOOP72 This would be a good one

The ENS looked nearly as warm though. NWS wouldn't forecast a high above 40 for 3 straight days unless the models/ENS showed it around here. The ENS can change pretty drastically too. The GEFS for the storm we got hit with were all showing max snowfall far SE, they were absolutely terrible for that storm and the OP won out. They were hundreds of miles off within a few days time.

We just had a 25" storm here 2 weeks ago of purely synoptic. 2.15" of QPF

Tuesdays run of the GFS vs todays same timestamp. Only a 44 degree difference over 3 days lol

Its anyones guess. Remember the 3 day torch showing up on all ENS 3-4 days ago? It showed 40s for 3 straight days here and a max high of 58 on Weds lol

We have agreement!

We want a blend to get a good storm here the Euro has 1/3 of QPF the GFS has. I'd rather have that ice storm.

Wow you're right! looks good.

Definitely further NW by 50-75 miles or so.

The same can be said of hurricanes and tornadoes but posters on here chase them from all over the country. We don't control the weather, it just happens. The October snowstorm of 2006 took down 70% of the trees in Buffalo and we didn't have power for 2 weeks, but you wouldn't see anyone on here posting about hoping for less snow for that event.

And videos. Where my jeb walkers at? I would be smack dab in the middle of that taking videos for the memories.

I'm trying to figure out where I was for that storm lol That video is insane.

I think people forget the storms we get here to east of Lake Erie, remember this one 3 years ago? https://www.facebook.com/AccuWeather/videos/252000642360948

How bad was it up there?

I wish I could teleport there right now, amazing~!