BuffaloWeather

Figured it was close enough to start its own thread. .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ...Increasing potential for a long duration, impactful accumulating snowfall during the mid week period... A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for all of western and north central New York Wednesday night through the first half of Friday. Southwest flow of milder air continues into the region ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday morning. Temperatures may reach the lower to mid 40s, especially for the lake plains and Genesee Valley into the Finger Lakes. Could see a few showers of rain or rain/snow mix sneak into the region from the northwest Wednesday morning, but its not until the afternoon on Wednesday until the deeper northward push of moisture transport reaches the area within the background of broadening system relative isentropic ascent along and immediately ahead of the advancing cold front. This introduces the initial stage of an expected longer duration precipitation event. Wednesday night through Thursday night... Gradual height falls tied the lead northern stream wave shearing into central Ontario will draw the system cold front across the area Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Sustained ascent driven by very moist system relative isentropic lift working over the advancing boundary ensures an expanding coverage of precipitation commences during this time. Rain may still be the predominant precipitation time Wednesday evening before steady cooling of the column allows for a change over to snow from north to south probably from late evening or around midnight through the overnight. Transition timing will likely impact accumulating snow potential Wednesday night and at this point do not see this as the period of the heaviest snow accumulations although several inches are certainly possible before morning if the change over occurs early enough in the night. At this point in the forecast process believe that the best potential for widespread accumulating snowfall will be Thursday into Thursday night as several rounds of stronger ascent continue to engage the elevated frontal zone. Do see diminishing ascent commencing late Thursday night. However, north-northeast flow of incoming arctic airmass will start to bring in some mesoscale processes with lake response south of Lake Ontario likely coming into play by the time we reach Friday morning. Overall snow to liquid ratios starting out very wet in the 6:1 range transitioning to a more standard 10-12:1 ratio by Thursday night. A general blend of guidance including the GFS/CMC/EC suggesting a high likelihood for snowfall total to exceed 9 inches through this time period with the potential for more as we go into Friday. 18Z Euro GFS GEM UK

Yeah Bengals are really good with insane speed. I do think we would have beaten them though at home. However, who would cover Chase/Higgins? They're so much faster than anyone we have on defense. We need speed on both sides of the ball. I want Fast CB at pick #25 and either a quick RB/WR in rounds 2/3. I also want us to sign a veteran rusher. They take too long to develop. Greg Rosseau was okay this year but not really an impact player. A trade similar to the Hughes one yrs back.

I feel so relieved. All is good in the world again. The Bengals defense held the Chiefs to 3 pts at home after halftime including OT and winning the toss...Incredible performance. Did anyone see what they did? They rushed 3 people and dropped everyone else back into coverage. Their d line man while way underpaid compared to ours were incredible and their LBS were better. I will now be watching the superbowl and watching tonights game!

18 euro

I'm not even watching. The real Superbowl was Chiefs vs Bills last week. Pretty cool.

Last frame of the NAM

He doesn't understand the law of thermodynamics. Warmer SSTs off the coast are fueling these strong nor'easters just like they fuel the stronger hurricanes we've had the last few years. Here is a good article about it. https://climate.nasa.gov/ask-nasa-climate/2956/how-climate-change-may-be-impacting-storms-over-earths-tropical-oceans/ The team also saw that for every 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) that SST increased, the number of extreme storms went up by about 21 percent. Based on current climate model projections, the researchers concluded that extreme storms may increase 60 percent by the year 2100. The highest snowfall totals in New England in recent years actually proves global warming, not disprove it.

I think I posted more than some of you posters during your big event last year in Binghamton. I'm not an IMBY poster. I'm just a fan of huge storms, albeit it LES/synoptic. I followed that storm yesterday all day in their thread. But if a big dog LES storm hits, that is the only thing I want IMBY. You'll catch me in the hurricane/tornadic outbreak threads all over AMX posting in spring/summer.

Happy anniversary

The potential exists for a long duration winter storm to impact the region Wednesday night into Friday. This system has the potential to bring significant accumulating snow. Details in forecast track and exact amounts are still emerging at this time. A more northern track could also bring the possibility of ice.

It's not too far off. First precipitation with this event starts around 2-3 PM on Weds across WNY. Winter Storm Watches likely issued tomorrow afternoon if guidance reminds consistent.

Over a foot for SYR. Not as much juice as GFS.

The storm really never "bombs" out as its anafrontal so you want to be as close to that taint as possible to get the best stuff. In comparison to a strengthening closing off system you'd rather be further NW.

Definitely further NW

Euro is similar to GFS but slightly SE. Going to be huge hit.

I'd be tailgating right now at the stadium. We had plans to rush the field if we won the game today at home to go to superbowl. It hurts.

Well it doesn't help when there are 16 games and you're guaranteed 2 losses every year to one of those teams. It shortens the season to 14 games and only 6 made it in the AFC during that time. Your probabilities are substantially reduced in making the playoffs. Bradys record against the Bills was like 33-3

BUF going with 100% pops Wednesday Rain and snow before 11am, then rain between 11am and 3pm, then rain and snow after 3pm. High near 39. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday Night Snow. Low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Thursday Snow. High near 29. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Thursday Night Snow likely, mainly before 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 14. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

I plan on doing this. My buddies going to drone me out on the ice. Speaking of Ice Hockey. I raised $1,000 in the last few days for the 11 day powerplay!

Long range GFS brings the PV on our heads

If this happens and Erie is frozen

.1" per hour for 40 hours.

GEFS are still pretty far NW