BuffaloWeather

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... ...Increasing potential for a long duration, impactful accumulating snowfall during the mid week period... A Winter Storm Watch is now in effect for all of western and north central New York Wednesday night through the first half of Friday. Southwest flow of milder air continues into the region ahead of an approaching cold front Wednesday morning. Temperatures may reach the lower to mid 40s, especially for the lake plains and Genesee Valley into the Finger Lakes. Could see a few showers of rain or rain/snow mix sneak into the region from the northwest Wednesday morning, but its not until the afternoon on Wednesday until the deeper northward push of moisture transport reaches the area within the background of broadening system relative isentropic ascent along and immediately ahead of the advancing cold front. This introduces the initial stage of an expected longer duration precipitation event. Wednesday night through Thursday night... Gradual height falls tied the lead northern stream wave shearing into central Ontario will draw the system cold front across the area Wednesday evening into Wednesday night. Sustained ascent driven by very moist system relative isentropic lift working over the advancing boundary ensures an expanding coverage of precipitation commences during this time. Rain may still be the predominant precipitation time Wednesday evening before steady cooling of the column allows for a change over to snow from north to south probably from late evening or around midnight through the overnight. Transition timing will likely impact accumulating snow potential Wednesday night and at this point do not see this as the period of the heaviest snow accumulations although several inches are certainly possible before morning if the change over occurs early enough in the night. At this point in the forecast process believe that the best potential for widespread accumulating snowfall will be Thursday into Thursday night as several rounds of stronger ascent continue to engage the elevated frontal zone. Do see diminishing ascent commencing late Thursday night. However, north-northeast flow of incoming arctic airmass will start to bring in some mesoscale processes with lake response south of Lake Ontario likely coming into play by the time we reach Friday morning. Overall snow to liquid ratios starting out very wet in the 6:1 range transitioning to a more standard 10-12:1 ratio by Thursday night. A general blend of guidance including the GFS/CMC/EC suggesting a high likelihood for snowfall total to exceed 9 inches through this time period with the potential for more as we go into Friday.

I've only seen impossible travel in a few LES events here, impossible with synoptic. Just like atmospheric river, polar vortex, and BOMB cyclone its all for the media hype and clicks.

gross. Lowest KBUF got was 1 degree lol

4 AFC championship games and only 1 superbowl. 1/2 more and no more SB wins would definitely be underachieving. To only win one with a HOF QB, TE, and WR is tough. But the Bills lost 4 superbowls with a HOF RB, WR, QB, and DE so its possible. Marino and Kelly have no superbowls, Brees 1 and Rodgers 1. It's tough to win the big one. Manning had 1 his entire career at Indy before going to the superteam in Denver. I think Mahomes/Allen are the top 2 QBs in the league for the next 10 years. I expect both to win at least 1 more in the next decade.

Sea affect snow. What elevation are they at? We see this type of stuff out west but with orographic lift.

GEFS/EPS seem pretty locked and loaded. Obviously going to be some subtle 50-75 mile shakes. But enough confidence for watches sometime today.

EPS is north

NW Ohio

Yep. 2 feet of 1:6-8 ratio lake effect snow with all the leaves still on the trees. Whenever someone brings up all LES being fluff I reference that storm lol. It was sloppier than any synoptic event I've had here.

The longest amount of time without power in WNY came from a snowstorm, rather than an ice storm. I had no power for 2 weeks in Oct 2006 in Cheektowaga, some longer than that.

16" 1:10

I think it went SE like 5-10 miles? Very similar to last night.

Euro is slightly more amped. Going to be another huge hit.

GFS has several storms hitting the area and all of upstate cashes in

UK

GEFS

Just came up in my fb memories. Jan 2019 was a month lol

GEM is way north, similar to RGEM.

What a storm for midwest

Storm weakens as it heads into that high, highest totals in Indiana.

Even though less QPF, ratios will be better due to colder air/no mixing, still a good hit

QPF totals on GFS cut in half from yesterdays runs to more realistic totals

Definitely a trend.