BuffaloWeather

Give me the GFS/GEM, no weak sauce supressed like Euro.

The storm itself can go pretty far SE and have us still get hit hard. Since its so elongated the heaviest snowfall is pretty far NW. It never really closes off like our last one did.

Such a terrible model. Remember when it had our storm over PA and jackpot was cleveland to toronto?

Couple more runs and its an open wave with 2-4" lol

GEM is carbon copy of GFS. Would be a massive hit, maybe slightly further SE?

29" in Toledo Ohio 10:1. Going to hard sell that. That would be an all timer for them lol

GFS further SE, but not quite as much as Canadian/Euro

Literal beaches on the Atlantic ocean have done better than some upstate places this year. Just crazy.

Yes. I understand what a co-op observer does. There just isn't enough of them to cover localized lake effect snow to get a general idea of snowfall totals. When 10-15 reports are coming in from cocarahs and NWS employees of greater than 49" of snow in 24 hours. The NWS employee from Elma reported over 54" than that chart is wrong. Cocarahs has training classes as well, I've taken a few.

Awesome radar loop

Had fun lurking all day on this incredible storm! Here is a radar loop showing the crazy banding earlier this afternoon. Congrats to all!

That makes sense but we had 10-15 coop/cocarahs get over 49" in 24 hours. Here are just a few not including my own. The picture in my avatar is from round 1 of that event in south cheektowaga. Sorry to get too off topic. Back to the storm. …ERIE COUNTY… 4 S Cheektowaga 65.0 Lancaster 63.0 Gardenville 60.0 West Seneca 57.0 2 W West Seneca 51.0 Elma 51.0 Orchard Park 48.0 Wales Center 48.0 1 N Hamburg 48.0 …WYOMING COUNTY… Cowlesville 56.0

Not enough coop observers in the area. Now that map makes more sense. There were many towns in the Buffalo area that blew past that 49” total in 24 hours in November of 2014. Must have been cocarahs not coop.

What qualifies as an official spotter if not Cocarahs or coop observer? Weather stations have nothing to do with snowfall measurements. I measured over the New York State record posted above in nov of 2014 as well under 24 hours.

Did you see Logan’s qpf on its 24”? Has to be something wrong

No one had 3.10” of qpf near Boston today. Report of 31” in taughton

It averaged 1:15 to 1:17 if you look at Boston Logan is was even higher. Definitely not 1:10. Will know exact ratios in the morning

That map Is terrible for New York. 77” in montague in 1997 and a more accurate total of 65” in Cheektowaga in 2014 here in Buffalo, there were several reports of 65” in 24 for that event

Sabres dropped the ball wow https://www.hockeyfeed.com/nhl-news/jack-eichel-reveals-what-really-happened-in-buffalo?fbclid=IwAR1nHa7pekbUT1pfv6fnxyTsu9OkWlDv8vZzs9F4BTQNs90hYpj4p_P7fuw

And if suppressed its weak sauce in terms of QPF.

I'd favor a more amped system to get more QPF. Euro is a run of the mill system. GFS is where its at, just need that further SE.

Think the max is around where this guy was. Top of his snowblower is 26"

GEFS is really far NW. It jacks Chicago. GFS is going to crash and burn or score a coop. I'd favor the former

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Big changes amongst the 29/12Z guidance packages in regards to p- type and the eventual track of the sfc low. Cold front eases into the region on Wednesday with a mix of rain/snow. After that it`s all up in the air to what happens. ECMWF guidance...has gone even colder with this update and has significantly pushed the track of the sfc low well to our ESE of the region. This would mean an all snow for the event but would also shift the heavier snowfall amounts almost out of our area. Canadian- NH...it too is colder but not quite as aggressive with the ESE push of the sfc low. GFS guidance...this is the warmer solution and has maintained the track of the sfc low through the Ohio Valley NE across Western and North Central NY. That said, the GFS track is also "NOT" climatologically favorable but it can`t be rule out either. The key to this event will likely be the timing and then eventual placement of the 850 hPa thermal boundary. Way too early to know exactly where it sets up or even stalls...if it does at all (see..ECMWF). So with this update (low confidence)...have again leaned on a blend of all solutions to get a middle of the road picture. Lots can and will likely change between now and the Wednesday evening through Thursday night time frame. Friday and beyond, it looks fairly straight forward with a colder air mass filtering into the region. There will also likely be some accumulating lake snows ESE of the lakes which then slowly diminish over the weekend.

Erie you let me down this year. You had so much potential and only one really good event. Cold and dry was the motto. I'll see you next year.