BuffaloWeather

It appears that there will be a window of at least several hours late tonight and Wednesday morning when the snowfall rates will be heavy enough not have too much of a problem sticking to grassy and untreated surfaces at onset. In fact, some mesoscale guidance suggesting the potential for snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in some areas. A challenging part of the forecast is trying to figure out how much snow is able to accumulate on warmer pavement surfaces which could limit snowfall amounts, but this should only be an issue very early on. Once paved surfaces get a layer of snow, accumulation will certainly be no problem thereafter. Enhancement from the lakes could also come into play as the flow turns more northerly which could send amounts a bit higher.

GEM

WRF models

GFS RGEM

Yep.

I mean lake temps were in the 60s for the October storm.

NAM is furthest NW, its been pretty persistent. I think you still toss it, no other model agrees with it.

I was just going off KBUF records. If you include the entire area the southern tier has had some big April snows as wolfie posted that was one of them

Thoughts for Buffalo area?

Snowiest Aprils 15.7 1885 15.0 1975 13.9 1904 13.8 1894 13.1 1961 12.0 1957 11.4 1886 10.9 1982 10.4 1901 9.9 1990

Has to be from 1975. 1975 Over 12 inches of snow fell at the Buffalo Airport between the 3rd and 5th of April.

Feels weird, just mowed the lawn in shorts.

GEFS ENS have strong signal

high end

Pretty remarkable to see 81% of 65-74 get the vaccine. I didn't think we would get close to that number for that age group.

Received at least 1 dose of vaccine updated last night. Breakdown by age: 75+: 79.5% 65-74: 81.0% 50-64: 57.0% 40-49: 44.1% 30-39: 37.7% 18-29: 28.2% 0-17: 1.7%

Still alot of uncertainty. If they do it will be later tonight after 18z runs.

I'd go with a similar call, want to see tonights runs first.

Perfect spring day out, right around 60 and sunny with little wind.

Euro is not as strong with the low, less QPF. Highest is .95"