BuffaloWeather

I remember when this pandemic first started and all the doctors/scientists were saying that Covid-19 does not mutate rapidly like the flu virus does. They were quite wrong about that one. Seems there is a different mutation every day.

% received at least one dose by age Age Apr-19 Apr-18 Apr-12 Daily Δ Weekly Δ 75+ 79.6% 79.5% 78.0% 0.10 pp 1.6 pp 65-74 81.2% 81.0% 78.9% 0.15 pp 2.3 pp 50-64 57.4% 57.0% 52.6% 0.40 pp 4.9 pp 40-49 44.6% 44.1% 39.4% 0.50 pp 5.2 pp 30-39 38.2% 37.7% 33.3% 0.48 pp 4.9 pp 18-29 28.6% 28.2% 23.8% 0.48 pp 4.9 pp 0-17 1.81% 1.71% 1.16% 0.09 pp 0.65 pp 16-17 15.9% 15.1% 10.2% 0.82 pp 5.7 pp 16+ 50.0% 49.6% 45.7% 0.40 pp 4.4 pp All 40.3% 40.0% 36.8% 0.32 pp 3.5 pp % fully vaccinated by age Age Apr-19 Apr-18 Apr-12 Daily Δ Weekly Δ 75+ 65.7% 65.4% 62.7% 0.20 pp 2.9 pp 65-74 65.0% 64.7% 60.5% 0.33 pp 4.5 pp 50-64 35.0% 34.3% 28.1% 0.65 pp 6.9 pp 40-49 25.3% 24.9% 20.8% 0.46 pp 4.5 pp 30-39 21.1% 20.7% 17.5% 0.38 pp 3.6 pp 18-29 13.9% 13.6% 11.2% 0.28 pp 2.7 pp 0-17 0.35% 0.33% 0.22% 0.02 pp 0.14 pp 16-17 3.1% 2.9% 1.89% 0.19 pp 1.2 pp 16+ 32.3% 31.9% 28.0% 0.41 pp 4.3 pp All 26.0% 25.7% 22.5% 0.33 pp 3.5 pp

CDC says fewer than 6,000 Americans have contracted Covid after being fully vaccinated https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/cdc-says-there-have-been-less-than-6000-breakthrough-covid-cases-among-fully-vaccinated-americans.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

CDC says fewer than 6,000 Americans have contracted Covid after being fully vaccinated https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/19/cdc-says-there-have-been-less-than-6000-breakthrough-covid-cases-among-fully-vaccinated-americans.html?__source=iosappshare|com.apple.UIKit.activity.CopyToPasteboard

Euro has less QPF then the other models

I don't agree with it either but its their personal choice. Those vaccinated cannot get severely sick, and those that refuse the vaccine have made their choice and accept the risks. I think you're right and we hit 60-65% vaccinations countrywide. I think that will be enough though along with prior infections for herd immunity.

You can get herd immunity through infection as well, like we have throughout history with almost every other pandemic.

All snow falling in St. Louis at 1:12 PM. I don't think we have to worry about our precip. type. That airmass is plenty cold for pure snow.

Whats more rare May 7th 1989 or Oct. storm 2006, not in terms of snowfall just time of year? I think I ran the numbers before and they were pretty close.

GEM

I don't think we touch May 7th, but I think we have a chance at 2nd place all time for late snows.

Extremely rare event for WNY

To show how rare this is.

GFS going to be a big hit, stronger system and even occludes and slows down a little bit

According to GFS the storm starts tonight and hits hardest during overnight hours. It's a little quicker then previous few days model runs 3z-10 PM

This storm doesn't really get going with dynamics until later tonight and overnight. Those rates are much lower than what we will see here.

Anyone know how to update the title to include the date?

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/54815-upstateeastern-new-york/

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY... * WHAT...Snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, Genesee, Wyoming, Chautauqua, and Cattaraugus counties. * WHEN...From midnight tonight to 2 PM EDT Wednesday. The heaviest snow will fall from the pre-dawn hours through mid to late morning. * IMPACTS...Plan on slushy and very slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions will impact the Wednesday morning commute. This will be a heavy, wet snow, and may result in isolated power outages and a few downed tree limbs. It appears that there will be a window of at least several hours late tonight and Wednesday morning when the snowfall rates will be heavy enough not have too much of a problem sticking to grassy and untreated surfaces at onset. In fact, some mesoscale guidance suggesting the potential for snowfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour in some areas. A challenging part of the forecast is trying to figure out how much snow is able to accumulate on warmer pavement surfaces which could limit snowfall amounts, but this should only be an issue very early on. Once paved surfaces get a layer of snow, accumulation will certainly be no problem thereafter. Enhancement from the lakes could also come into play as the flow turns more northerly which could send amounts a bit higher. The synoptic snow should quickly clear much of the area by Wednesday afternoon, setting the stage for some lake effect snow showers Wednesday night. Northwest flow will focus most of this into the western Southern Tier off Lake Erie, and from Orleans County eastward across Rochester to Oswego County and down into the Finger Lakes off Lake Ontario. Upslope flow will also keep more widespread snow showers going across the higher terrain east of Lake Ontario. We will likely see additional localized accumulations in the most persistent bands.

I think we should create a separate thread for this event, pretty memorable one for so late.

The newest runs of the WRF models all show 6-8" at 1:10. I don't think we will see 1:10, more like 1:8