BuffaloWeather

Feels weird, just mowed the lawn in shorts.

GEFS ENS have strong signal

high end

Pretty remarkable to see 81% of 65-74 get the vaccine. I didn't think we would get close to that number for that age group.

Received at least 1 dose of vaccine updated last night. Breakdown by age: 75+: 79.5% 65-74: 81.0% 50-64: 57.0% 40-49: 44.1% 30-39: 37.7% 18-29: 28.2% 0-17: 1.7%

Still alot of uncertainty. If they do it will be later tonight after 18z runs.

I'd go with a similar call, want to see tonights runs first.

Perfect spring day out, right around 60 and sunny with little wind.

Euro is not as strong with the low, less QPF. Highest is .95"

Euro slightly SE of last run

Some of the higher res have some nice banding as the storm strengthens

WRF models

Seems like high res are furthest NW, Hrrr

Yeah quite a few in partial bloom here. Probably about 20-25% right now. The smaller trees are near 75% bloom. Going to mow the lawn after work.

20" bomb on Kuchera

I'm off Wednesday this week so I'll be chasing this if GFS is right with those totals SE of here.

GFS is showing 20" totals SE of me in Alleghany county, pretty insane...Temps in the upper 20s during the event.

Going to be close for winter storm watches on this one. I think if 18z runs show similar totals you kind of have to go watches. The storm starts around midnight tomorrow night. We will be within 30 hours of start time.

1.82" max over Alleghany county, 19" Kuchera.

GFS was stronger with more QPF

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1.25" for max QPF

KBUF, even talks about lake effect weds night lol The expectation is for a window from late Tuesday night through the first half or so of Wednesday morning when ascent is maximized immediately on the cold side of the frontal zone resulting in a swath of higher intensity snowfall rates. Considering warm ground temperature, even high snowfall rates into a relatively cold late night/early morning boundary layer may struggle to produce 10:1 snow- liquid ratios. Though the current forecast suggests snowfall amounts in the 2-5 inch range with the higher amounts focused on higher terrain, as well as the Niagara Frontier including the Buffalo metro area, it is expected that there will be additional forecast adjustments to these amounts over the next several forecast cycles. Precipitation should taper down Wednesday afternoon. Cold air will pour into the eastern Great Lakes behind this system, with scattered snow showers developing. 850 mb temperatures as cold as -12c will develop lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario Wednesday night with some additional accumulation likely.