December 2010 was one of the best months in Upstate New york. Syracuse had 70" by Dec 15th that year. Many parts south of Buffalo were in that range too.
Pretty much the exact forecast I had back in September. I also thought the same last year and was off though. We didn't do terrible though despite the really warm temps in Nov-Jan. Usually in Ninas the winter starts early and ends late, the exact opposite happened last year. Sometimes these things make no sense. 2019-2020 had zero good LES events here.
Nov: +5.8
Dec: +3.4
Jan: +4.5
Feb: -1.6
Mar:+6.3
I was able to get over 100" with those temps with a few really good LES events.
Not sure about your way, but for Buffalo its about 50/50. 50% lake effect/enhanced 50% synoptic. Depending on the season that can change dramatically. One big event and its 70-80% LES and 20-30% synoptic.
Saturday
Sunny, with a high near 51.
Sunday
Sunny, with a high near 56.
Monday
Sunny, with a high near 61.
Tuesday
Mostly sunny, with a high near 60.
Wednesday
Partly sunny, with a high near 54.
Veterans Day
Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58.
Some great Friday reading right here.
https://www.wkbw.com/weather/2021-2022-winter-weather-outlook?fbclid=IwAR0EsdlQsxzYppFuP7VMuW633yc9-MGCsc5sxvtVI7P1xM5BXsx9ktNUqbE
1999-2004 were really high snowfall years, so that average is likely a little higher if those were included. Around 210". I had over 210" here back in 2014-2015. 88" in one storm helped out a lot but we just had an insane lake effect season that entire year.