BuffaloWeather

This weekends event with marginal temps likely becomes a nowcasting event. Really not enough cold air to get confident in lower elevations.

Full bloom here.

Still way too early. Will have better idea by Thursday.

Its tough to get a true SW flow LES event so it would be a shame if its all rain. SW flow produces the strongest bands and dynamic cooling is often underrated in such events. We're at the time of year where below average temps should feature some type of snow, especially at night. I could see lake effect snow Sat/Sunday night and Lake effect rain during the day. Maybe even back and forth depending on the strength of the band. Should be fun to track.

65 at Kbuf top notch

The end of the GFS is what @tombo82685mentioned with MJO going into phase 7. Still very bullish. Big time negative EPO there. Still super far out though.

It's such a marginal event with temps and wind speed. Very early but looks like well aligned flow and good moisture. So 2 out of the 4 ingredients there.

Many parts of lake Erie in the 60s still

Tom Brady is the king of this. Ever watch video of him? He goes and talks to his line on every play they miss a guy. I want to see Allen go over to his line after they're off the field and hold these guys accountable.

We're going to get a lot of rain or some snow.

@Thinksnow18

GEM has intense band of lake effect precip

Adk this weekend

This band is all snow, especially higher elevations.

Very close call on Sat night for LES, if the band is strong enough I want to say that falls as snow.

Thats a strong storm

Same here. Looks like a high in the mid 60s here. Wish it didn't get dark so early, cannot even go disc golf after work. This is the time of year I start cheering for snow because I can't do anything outside as its too dark out.

It's really tough to get double digit negative departures. Like impossible tough. When is the last time, sometime in July? It seems much more difficult to get them in the colder months, then the warmer months.

That astroworld incident was crazy.

Blue colors around upstate are pretty rare. What would you say wolf? 10% of the time from CPC?

Friday into Tuesday look to be below normal with Sunday/Monday likely being our coldest days. We get another warmup next week and then a cool down around thanksgiving.

NWS: There will be a brief break in rain behind the cold front later Friday through a portion of Friday night, then extensive wrap around moisture moves back into the eastern Great Lakes later Friday night through the weekend. This will bring a chance of showers in general, and the arrival of cooler air aloft will also support an increasing chance of lake effect and/or lake enhanced precipitation north and northeast of the lakes. The column looks to stay warm enough for all rain through Saturday, followed by increasing chances of some wet snow mixing in later Saturday night through Sunday.

GFS still showing lake effect snow on sunday/monday, not sure what the temps look like havent look too far into it. With the lake temp in the 60s we could see some wet bulb/dynamic cooling to lower the temp.

Most frustrating game I've ever watched.

True this weekend was the exception to the rule. Was able to finish winterizing the backyard. Officially ready for the first snow, put the gazebo away, plants, BBQ, and chairs.