BuffaloWeather

Yeah Millers Bs but it depends on where that blocking sets up, could be cutters too if too far east with blocking.

December BUF: +5.3 ROC: +3.6 WAT: +5.3 SYR: +6.9 Lake Erie at 44 degrees. 5 degrees above normal.

GEFS put our area into the battleground for synoptic systems. The question will be is there enough cold air. Lots of cutter potential but some storm potential too. Looks like slightly above average temps for next 2 weeks.

These big events happen every 5-6 years. 2001, 2007, 2010, 2014. We're well overdue for a big time event. Its coming in January.

Fantasy playoffs start this week, going to be a crazy 3 weeks

I thought you guys got 3-4" from the synoptic storm before the lake effect kicked in? Also Binghamton had 40+" of snow the week prior. I'd trade this entire winter for that one storm Bing got. I really only enjoy the big dogs and high snowfall rates. Snow depth and cold temps don't do it for me. Everyone has their own niche.

Christmas Miracle?

Hey who knows maybe January is rocking with 40 degree lakes and we all get a 100" month, its possible. If we get a clipper pattern going in January for 2-3 weeks its not out of the realm of possibilities. The problem has been no cold air.

Payback for last year, pretty much the best christmas you could get here.

Those are going to look pretty bad in 2 weeks. We will all be down 2-3 feet.

Great stuff! I think we go into 3rd or 4th. 2012 is tough to beat.

the met at GRR actually had a great write up on this Impact of Tropical Storm Rai (west Pacific) on our weather for next week As it turns out, Tropical Storm Rai, in the western Pacific is heading due west toward the Philippine Islands. It should become a typhoon by this evening. Why to we care about this in Michigan? As it turns out, it will have a major impact our weather for the next week. What this does is it stalls the MJO on the edge of phase 6 to phase 7 since in phase 7. In phase 7 the area near the Philippines should be dry. That changes the entire northern hemispheric wave train. It will delay the arrives of the really cold air till after Christmas (we need a solid phase 7 for that cold air to get here). This means largely zonal flow for our area for the next week. That will prevent any strong pushes of cold air and also not allow the much phasing with the next two storm systems that follow the Thursday event. The result will be the system on Saturday will have a northern and southern branch component to it. The northern branch part stays north and the southern branch part stays south. Still we are close enough the jet entrance region driving the system that some light rain/snow is possible. Northern area will see mostly snow, central sections a mix of rain and snow and mostly rain south of I-94 (not enough push of the cold air for snow there). Any precipitation with this will be meager at best. There is another system early next week, that too lacks any real cold air. Expect some light snow north and a mix south. Finally a better system is possible near Christmas. This is about the time that the tropical cyclone in the west Pacific influence should be fading. Maybe snow by Christmas? Bill Marino, great forecaster, been there forever

GFS says no snow until at least new year with some crazy warmth.

OP GFS gets warmer and warmer each run. Hopefully Ensembles don't start showing the same. Merry Christmas.

EPS has a servicable pattern later next week.

Lets just hope the cold air doesn't keep getting delayed and delayed like the last few years.

I think this is the last real warm week. As we head into the end of December even slightly above average temps can give us snow. It looks to be up and down though with no real arctic air until after Christmas. The end of the GEFS show the Epo going negative and slowly bleeding eastward. Our biggest worry is that SE ridge. Canada has loads of cold air to tap, that will eventually happen. This isn't like a lot of recent years where Canada is on fire and no source of cold air. I'm still pretty optimistic.

My wife and my uncle and aunt.

GEFS next week don't look too bad

This sums up the Bills game

Just booked my flights and rental car for Alaska in August of 2022.

It might not get below 32 here for an entire week in Mid/Late December incredible.