Radar trends show the band off Lake Erie has intensified during
the past hour or two, likely due to an increase in mid-level
moisture and a longer fetch due to the southwest winds. These
conditions will not change much until late this evening when
wind shear increases and winds weaken. Model QPF guidance is too
far south with this band, so adjusted accordingly. Since the
band should maintain through around 10 p.m. had the confidence
to issue a Winter Weather Advisory for Southern Erie county. The
band should generally remain in place through 7 p.m. then may
meander slightly north between 7-10 p.m. before weakening and
moving south after that. Greatest amounts expected to be
centered somewhere near Hamburg, with impacts extending across
the Southtowns this evening. Expecting 3 to 6 inches of snow
accumulation in most persistent snows. As typical with lake
effect snow, this will be localized.