BuffaloWeather

A deepening area of low pressure is progged to cut the Great Lakes from the Mid-West and track northwest of western and north central NY Sunday-Monday. Signals in the ensembles from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF ENS are surfacing that show a potential wind event across the region sometime during Sunday night-Monday night. Many parameters such as sharp pressure rises and cold air advection behind a strong cold front associated with a deepening surface low pressure match local climatology for high wind events across western and north central NY. Widespread rain will likely move across the region ahead of the cold front Sunday-Monday. Stay tuned for further updates and details on intensity and timing. Temperatures will likely start off in the upper 30s to low 40s Monday morning and fall through the day into Monday night. Lake effect snow showers will likely begin behind the cold front Monday-Tuesday resulting in accumulating snow for some locations east of the Lakes.

Top analog for Monday 12/25/1996. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F108&rundt=2021120212&dt=1996122500

I guess the risk/reward is always there. Maybe my friends uncle never gets covid and doesn't lose his eyesight. But like you said you never know what the covid symptoms could have done. That's a good point on the booster. If you were relatively symptom free from the 1st 2 shots its unlikely you'll get anything from the 3rd. Maybe a slightly higher immune response. Initial data out of Isreal is both boosters are highly effective against Omnicron.

Covid doesn’t prevent infection we all knew this already, it prevents severe symptoms. Similar to the flu vaccines.

Even the UK has it, it rarely shows lake effect

Canadian with about 6 hours of a WSW flow, should be a pretty strong band.

Let’s meet up for a pregame beer!

Let’s hope the outcome is different.

Gfs has been consistent

Right around 5” biggest event was on the 13th

this is what he sent me on discord we play games online together First night felt like I was actually dying The 2 after were ROUGH I wouldnt recommend this to anyone haha They say ill have strong antibodies now though which is dope But holy shit man this was the sickest ive ever been in my life my uncle got vaxxed and got a blood clot behind his eye and is blind now which terrified me from the vaccines

When was the last monday night game at the ralph? A few decades ago? I looked it up Nov 17th, 2008, we also had one in 2007 and then before that 1994.

He didn't get the vax because his uncle got a bloodclot in his head right after his vaccine and is now blind in one eye, he was scared. He said it could be random, the doctors don't know what happened. But its too coincidental to be.

Would be awesome to get that band over orchard park for a Monday night game.

A friend from the gym has covid and its the worst sickness hes ever had. He is really in shape, does MMA as well. Hes unvaxxed, his girlfriend had Pfizer and didn't get sick. Really debating on getting the booster now. Staying away from the gym for few weeks. Going to run outside and do at home workouts.

You really should have moved somewhere with elevation if you want snow retention in Upstate NY. I don't think there is any winter where we go nonstop snowcover around here, there are always at least 3-4 cutters a winter.

50 degrees out.

That system is going to cut west mine as well get some decent les behind. Flow turns nw behind so impacts everyone really. Who doesn’t want to watch the bills vs pats on Monday in a lake effect band? Not really a good synoptic pattern next 2 weeks with se ridge. It’s cutter season.

First model to start showing what KBUF is talking about, looks like a short lived event as winds veer WNW. Will have better idea as higher res get into range.

GFS lake response is WNW wind

the farther NW that low goes the better for us in WNY with lake effect.

If we get a good lake band going for the game everyone here needs to go its an incredible experience and pretty rare, let alone on Monday Night Football for the AFC lead! Very early but I dont see a SW flow, only W and then quickly NW following that front on Monday. What model is showing that?

Lake snow event for Bills game!?! 100% all about it! This is why cutters aren't the worst thing as wolfie mentioned you can get some good W/SW flow behind them if cold air is there. A change to a meridional flow this period will bring active weather to our region. Sunday an upper level trough will deepen over the western Great Lakes, while zonal flow over the Northeast amplifies. This trough will deepen a surface low to our west and north...one that the operational model runs of the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian are in fairly good agreement with as far as track and deepening the low. Attached to this deepening surface low will be a cold front, with convective showers ahead and along it Sunday Night. The cold front will reach WNY early Monday morning, sweeping across the region through the day...with post front steeping lapse rates and mixing level heights supporting strong winds. Cold air at 850 hPa deepening -10 to -14C behind the cold front through Tuesday will set the stage for a lake effect precipitation response, with accumulating lake snows likely Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Exact placement is still uncertain at this point...but could include areas northeast of the Lakes, including Buffalo and Watertown Monday. High pressure will briefly near the region Tuesday, with winds and lake snows diminishing, but another storm system Wednesday could renew the stronger winds along with areas of rain and snow.

December is my favorite winter month so always sucks losing it. December 2010 was the best.