BuffaloWeather

Buffalo is actually ahead of where they were back in 2001. I've been saying this all along only takes 1 storm. But in order for that 1 storm to happen we need arctic air. I've been looking for it all month, its stuck in the northwest.

not so fast my friend. Dec 2001 was not a good winter overall. Dec 2001 was a very warm winter and ranks as the 10th warmest december overall. That entire autumn was extremely warm. That winter was a 1 storm winter, the rest of it was very warm. I remember vividly the 45" snow depth melting within a week or two across Cheektowaga. I was pretty much ground zero for that storm. 1 42.1 2015 2 37.6 1923 3 37.5 1889 4 37.5 1982 5 37.2 2006 6 36.8 1881 7 36.7 1877 8 36.6 1891 9 36.3 2012 10 35.9 2001 If you click on the link here you go. Lake Effect Storm December 24, 2001- Jan 1, 2002 After a record warm and nearly snowless November and December, western and central New York underwent one of the most significant and abrupt changes in the weather that has ever been recorded in this area. Almost no snow had been recorded in the region (1.6 inches at Buffalo) up until the days before Christmas, leaving everyone wondering if we would have a white Christmas at all. By about December 22nd, forecasters began to see signs of a significant change in the large scale weather pattern across North America. Advanced computer models were showing a blocking pattern developing over Greenland at upper levels of the atmosphere, forcing an upper level, closed low to develop and strengthen over the Upper Great Lakes. Forecasters on the eastern Great Lakes are familiar with this synoptic pattern, because it is conducive to the heaviest lake effect snows in western and central New York. The low was forecast to trap enough cold air from northern Canada to produce heavy lake snows. Even more alarming was the forecast that the upper low would move little, if any during the next week. This would produce more serious implications for the eastern lakes. 1. The pattern would mean that an extended period of lake effect snow was likely, possible for an entire week. 2. The wind direction would remain the same for a long time, which would result in a band staying over one particular region for days at a time.

Theres nothing wrong with that pattern TBH. That is a good synoptic setup for us, slightly cutterish but not terrible. Average temps this time of year are cold.

The GEFS are back to what they were before

Normal temps in 8-14 days feature highs in low 30s

They just went off board, they were on board for the last week hopefully one fluke.

12 runs were putrid even gefs long range keep cold in northwest. The cold air has been in northwest for last 4-5 years.

Forgot to add the canadian ENS is on board too

Bet we hit 50 here too Christmas Day A chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

We're about to get every indice going our way into new year. If it doesn't snow something is wrong. Not posted but EPO goes negative too.

Yeah we had a trace yesterday and today here.

My point this morning is the Euro is still king and the CFS are trash.

Euro also nailed November

The Euro blew away the CFS. This is from Dec. 1st.

Just to show you how bad the CFS is. It's predicting we finish below average for december as of todays model run. lol

That extreme negative PNA has allowed the warm Pac air to dominate the lower 48, that changes around new year.

That's a nice -epo with a relaxing PNA on GEFS ENS mean, in peak winter thats a fantastic pattern. EPS shows the same. The typhoon weakened and shouldn't affect too much going forward.

Wakes up and checks upstate this morning..

I’m a seasons in seasons guy myself. If it’s not going to snow give me 50s and sunny. Mid 30s with rain and clouds is just brutal.

Chicago is going to set its all time record for latest accumulating snowfall this year. It's going to smash the record.

OP EURO is a torch next week.

I don't blame you but that typhoon resulted in a delay of MJO going to phase 7 by about a week. That's why were a week behind.

This is what upstate winters have come to, sad times.