That's a nice -epo with a relaxing PNA on GEFS ENS mean, in peak winter thats a fantastic pattern. EPS shows the same. The typhoon weakened and shouldn't affect too much going forward.
Just remember January is the coldest month of the year on average so negative departures almost certainly means lake effect as well. Even slightly positive departures in January result in snow in upstate.
Cold air delayed but not forgotten, just give me one good LES storm this year and I'm happy. Both EPS/GEFS show a good clipper pattern showing up in January. We 100% take that with warm lakes.
Yeah this December has been crazy. Here are the highs at BUF the last week
50, 67, 45, 48, 47, 58, 64, and I think it was in the 50s at midnight today. Average high is in the upper 30s. Potential for top 5 warmest December.
I’m also a lake effort guy so the upcoming pattern has virtually no chance at a good les event. It’s not a terrible synoptic pattern, not the best though. Somehow Buffalo will go 40+ many days with this pattern.