BuffaloWeather

Pretty decent consensus the PNA begins to weaken next week into new year. Still think we have a warm Christmas and new year though.

I think that timeframe is to watch for a pattern change. Most have that cold front changing the locked in pattern that we've had for the last month. Can see the cold air actually has a mechanism to finally make its way eastward.

Japan getting hit pretty hard from ocean effect snow.

@TugHillMatt setup watching every webcam with snow falling in the world

Just remember this is from Feb. of this year (Last winter). Things can change quickly in upstate.

Would love this pattern for spring/summer but would like to go skiing a few times this winter. I'm thinking about booking a trip out west in march.

GEFS showing a rebuilding of eastern ridge around new years, pattern is LOCKED

Really hope the blocking stays when we get a little pacific help. Need both for big les potential.

First les of the year showing up on 6z gfs.

That was the best GFS run in awhile for cold air

Spencer Brown had the worst NFL game from a lineman in quite awhile, 5 penalties and got beat on every play.

We had all of our snow in a 2 week period that winter. Jan 1st-Mid January. 4 decent LES events in that two week period. Finished around 80" that year. https://www.weather.gov/buf/lesEventArchive?season=2015-2016&event=C

You can email him yourself if you see fit. @stormtracker

I guess covid/political posts are only allowed at the bottom in the off-topic section with the rest of the forum. They are not allowed to be discussed in our forum. It makes little sense to me that you can talk about them in the OT section with a bunch of randoms but not in our separate "OT" thread. Its just semantics, but rules are rules. This is the response I got from the guy who runs the forums, his name is Randy. "You can have off topic threads within subforums, we just prefer that you not because well, that's what the OT section is for. I think the issue is the TYPE of ot discussion within this subforum OT threads. Those should be more light hearted (lawn care, holiday cooking, or things unique to your region, but not weather related.). Once you get into politics, vax/COVID stuff or anything superheated, that's where we start moving or deleting posts." I did not know these rules, so going forward we are allowed to discuss anything here besides covid/politics.

Yep

42 and sunny here, taking dog for walk after work.

January is going to be rockin

A really good illustration of what is happening from the New England Forum, they have great discussions over there.

Gfs loves to dangle carrots. 1-2 good les events a year and I’m satisfied. Last year checked that box Last year was much better than the year prior. I don't think we had one good LES band over my place which is pretty rare for a winter.

I go on most sub forums and most Mets were buying it. Most professional outlooks had a cold/snowy December.

Way out in clown range but the end of GFS shows the potential if that cold air gets to the northeast. With that blocking in greenland it would be some epic stuff with open lakes.

It should and would be an epic LES pattern. However, its been stuck at that look at the 10 day-2 week timeframe for the last month. It keeps getting pushed farther and farther back.

Once a pattern locks in, it really locks in. I sense there will be some cliff jumpers coming if this comes to fruition.

My fence got fixed tyvm! $5300 down the drain but it looks incredible. It made it through that last wind storm with ease