BuffaloWeather

I guess covid/political posts are only allowed at the bottom in the off-topic section with the rest of the forum. They are not allowed to be discussed in our forum. It makes little sense to me that you can talk about them in the OT section with a bunch of randoms but not in our separate "OT" thread. Its just semantics, but rules are rules. This is the response I got from the guy who runs the forums, his name is Randy. "You can have off topic threads within subforums, we just prefer that you not because well, that's what the OT section is for. I think the issue is the TYPE of ot discussion within this subforum OT threads. Those should be more light hearted (lawn care, holiday cooking, or things unique to your region, but not weather related.). Once you get into politics, vax/COVID stuff or anything superheated, that's where we start moving or deleting posts." I did not know these rules, so going forward we are allowed to discuss anything here besides covid/politics.

Yep

42 and sunny here, taking dog for walk after work.

January is going to be rockin

A really good illustration of what is happening from the New England Forum, they have great discussions over there.

Gfs loves to dangle carrots. 1-2 good les events a year and I’m satisfied. Last year checked that box Last year was much better than the year prior. I don't think we had one good LES band over my place which is pretty rare for a winter.

I go on most sub forums and most Mets were buying it. Most professional outlooks had a cold/snowy December.

Way out in clown range but the end of GFS shows the potential if that cold air gets to the northeast. With that blocking in greenland it would be some epic stuff with open lakes.

It should and would be an epic LES pattern. However, its been stuck at that look at the 10 day-2 week timeframe for the last month. It keeps getting pushed farther and farther back.

Once a pattern locks in, it really locks in. I sense there will be some cliff jumpers coming if this comes to fruition.

My fence got fixed tyvm! $5300 down the drain but it looks incredible. It made it through that last wind storm with ease

I’m starting to get the urge to go again. I may go this weekend solo. I orphaned sawteeth last year but not a fan of hiking solo in winter up there.

The summits don’t usually have a lot of snow. It’s the 1/2 mile below the summits that do. I’m at 38/46 for high peaks planning to finish next year. I follow adk trail conditions and there is 2-3’ on most peaks. The wind blows the bare summits like whiteface snow all over. You need to find the protection of the trees to find depth.

If ya'll get real desperate you guys can come hike a ADK high peak with me. Always a few feet of snow on the tops. In good winters 6 feet+

Yeah we've been saying it for awhile on these forums while others along the east coast require more blocking. It's virtually impossible to get a good LES pattern without a -EPO.

We need PAC help. You can have atlantic blocking all day but if you have that warm SW flow there is little hope of a good pattern.

Dark horse candidate for epic January melt would be @Thinksnow18

GFS saves the melts temporarily.

Totally forgot about him, he has a chance. I'd put the odds at about 33.33333%

It will be a close match between @TugHillMattand @rochesterdave. I've also seen some good melts from @lakeeffectkid383and some epic ones from @WNash But his are understandable as he hasn't really gotten a good LES yet north of Buffalo. Nothing beats the New England melts though, those are crazy.

I meant mainly the New England forum but yes.

I was in denial to list that season as an analog because it was such an anomaly but the potential was always there. I still think it doesn't end up like that one. Would be fun to read the melts on the forum though.