BuffaloWeather

Happy holidays all! May santa bring us all a better Pacific.

Latest GFS pretty much drops PV on the lakes

Just saying it's not the best pattern, but its definitely workable. Looks like a front end thump for most areas tonight?

The GFS is showing -43 degree temps just north of the border after new years. The years that worry me are the ones where Canada is on fire. We have a source of cold air directly to our north, just need a mechanism to get it over here.

Remember that crazy heatwave across western canada in summer? It broke all time record highs across the country. Well they are now smashing some record low records too. Talk about 2 extremes in the same year.

The EPS show a good pattern developing around new year. Its still possible the SE ridge flexes its muscle in mid january but right now the first week of January "should" be quite wintry. You can expect temps to be 1-2 degrees below normal on average.

We should be in the battleground zone Let's not forget temps in this timerange average in low 30s for highs and low 20s/high teens for lows.

I think you're reading that wrong. That's a pretty good look for early/mid January. That look shows a reduction in the record PNA and the PV on our side of the globe which allows the colder air to seep eastward. You don't need below normal temps for January in our area. Normal and even slightly above normal do just fine for the coldest month of the year.

Pretty good consensus of pattern change around the new year

Yeah EPO or PNA, both some big time Pacific Ocean issues. Both years we had atlantic blocking as well. Just goes to show you PAC>ATL

Buffaloweather: We just had that last January. January 2020 was the 9th warmest in the records. ____________________ Freak: I'm dead serious when I say we should go for the all time least snowiest season on record here in Syracuse because, from the looks of most guidance we may get to mid-January with not much accumulation so Ima start rooting for it, why not, since it doesn't want to snow anymore. _____________________ Buffaloweather: Posted December 28, 2020 Lots of cutters next 2 weeks. Should be a few really warm days tossed in there compared to average. Feel pretty confident in another above average month in January. Last year and this year are both back to back Ninas. The Southeast ridge has been killing our winters. Just a bad Pacific. I will say I would take what I am seeing for January over what last year brought.

Lake erie at 41 degrees, 4 above normal. We have the potential for 40 degree lake temps in January.

@DeltaT13 That really was a fluff bomb. 1:25 ratio looks like? .10=3.2" 1:32

It really is. But most days you get a moist NW flow you can expect some type of LES band to form, where is anyones guess.

I remember him. I don't remember him having a snow machine, he just groomed what snow was on the ground. That backyard was amazing though!

You like snow more then anyone I’ve ever met, you really need one of these. I’m getting you this for Christmas.

Congrats andrew! The best events are the ones that are unsuspected. Happy holidays!

Thats an awesome fluff bomber, congrats!

Crazy loop

This is what I mean when I say get the cold over our head and it will snow with 2 lakes nearby. Any lift and its snow around here with cold air.

KROC reporting moderate snow 1/2 mile visibility.

Alright the melt percentages have been changed. @rochesterdavegoes to 20%, @TugHillMatt has been increased to 30% and @CNY-LES FREAKgoes up to 50%

Pretty decent consensus the PNA begins to weaken next week into new year. Still think we have a warm Christmas and new year though.

I think that timeframe is to watch for a pattern change. Most have that cold front changing the locked in pattern that we've had for the last month. Can see the cold air actually has a mechanism to finally make its way eastward.