griteater

NAM is going to be a whopper boys and girls

Agree Buddy, should see a little more storm with this run

Looking at the Euro, GFS, and CMC ensemble means, each one is taking baby steps toward more precip back inland. Of the 3, the Euro Ens is making the smallest moves (part of that may be the large # of ensemble members). The CMC Ens Mean is the most amplified with the southern portion of the trough. GFS and Euro Ens are similar at the base of the trough. I think we'll continue to see slight sharpening of the wave and some increases to the precip back to the west.

The upper levels drive the bus. So yes, it's all important

UKMet looks pretty healthy with precip...sfc low just off SC coast at hr72...850 zero deg from Norfolk to south of Charlotte to south of GSP

You can get the UKMet early at this link, but you have to turn your head sideways to view it, lol - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&ech=60&carte=1021

As long as the wave doesn't go too positive tilt like the GFS, yes, I'd expect more precip inland than currently shown. Models tend to be too skimpy on the NW side with precip in Miller A's

We have a mix of solutions right now with amped up runs (CMC/JMA), and positive tilt, flatter runs (NAM/GFS). Probably take a middle man approach, similar to the Ensemble Means....but my thinking has been that we would see this tick more amped with more precip inland

Yep, UKMet looks more amped than its last run. I think this hobby is fun, but I'm not sure. Look at all these model runs and you and I get 38 degrees and rain

NAM and GFS come in with scrapers, but.....lol......the new CMC is juiced. Looks like that amped JMA run

NAM is in the JMA camp with the southern wave separation and sharpening at the end there...it didn't look warmer that run

It looks more positive tilt at the base of the trough. The 12z UKMet was like this, so that was a red flag, but these are wobbles, so it's hard to say...but the DWD Icon and UKMet didn't have as much push inland with the precip. I wouldn't sweat it too much really. Some of the other globals are diving more northern stream energy into the trough to sharpen it more...need to see the other 00z's.

At 42, NAM is hanging the southern shortwave back over New Mexico a bit, more like the globals...think that will limit this from being super amped up and well west....we'll see

GFS out to 72 - another baby step toward more precip inland and warmer in Carolinas (been saying warmer every run today it seems like)

NAM is more positive tilt at the base of the trough this run...don't think it's going to be as strong with the precip back inland

GSP Discussion... In response to encroaching positive tilt l/wv trough and developing upper jet dynamics, pcpn shield is progged to expand and develop back northward into the cwfa Thursday night. 05/12z SuperBlend and WPC guidance limits the increase to just chance pops thru the piedmont by daybreak Friday. Deeper forcing should increase into Friday with favorable upper jet positioning. Based on this, have increased precip chances to mid-chance with the best response slated to be atop the piedmont. Critical 85-70h thickness values should hover along the southeast fringe of the cwfa through Friday...a rough estimate of the rain/snow line for the bulk of the event. However, warm blyr temperatures makes it questionable on just how much snow would accumulate SE of I-85 where the liquid equiv QPF is the greatest. At this point, best combination of QPF and favorable temperatures looks to be North and NW of CLT where if any heavier bands are able to form would produce an inch of snow accumulation.

^JMA looks like a whopper. On the flip side, the DWD-ICON and UKMet pretty much limit precip from getting NW of a line from Atlanta to Greensboro to Norfolk

WPC Model Discussion... PREFERENCE: 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC BLEND CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE THE FIRST SHORTWAVE WEAKENING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CA/AZ SHOWS GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES TO TALK ABOUT REGARDING A SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES WED/WED NIGHT. MODEL AND DETERMINISTIC TRENDS HAVE BEEN TOWARD THE WEST/MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE SHORTWAVE VALID THU EVENING. THE 12Z GFS IS THE WEAKEST AND MOST PROGRESSIVE WITH THE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO NRN MEXICO FRI MORNING. GIVEN THE ENSEMBLE TRENDS TOWARD A SLOWER/DEEPER TROUGH AXIS...AWAY FROM THE 12Z GFS AND 00/06/12Z GEFS...DO NOT WANT TO BE ON THE FASTER EDGE OF THE MODELS. THE 12Z UKMET REPRESENTS THE MOST AMPLIFIED SIDE OF THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC MODEL SPREAD BUT IT HAS WEAKENED SOME FROM ITS 00Z CYCLE. FOR FRIDAY...THE 12Z ECMWF TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST WITH THE NRN PORTION OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND FASTER/EAST WITH THE SRN PORTION OVER SOUTH TEXAS. THE PREVIOUSLY PREFERRED 00Z ECMWF MEAN IS CURRENTLY NEAR A BLEND OF THE 12Z ECMWF/UKMET/CMC. WHICH IS BETWEEN THE PREVIOUSLY MORE AGGRESSIVE DIGGING SEEN IN THE 00Z UKMET/ECMWF AND FLATTER/MORE PROGRESSIVE 12Z NAM/GFS.

In cases like this where the only warm layer is right at the surface, this is what I've used/observed in the past... If surface wet-bulb temperature is... 32: Snow 33-34: Snow or Rain/Snow Mix 35: Rain/Snow mix 36-37: Rain or Rain/Snow mix

IMO, this is going to continue to tick more amped with more precip inland. I'm just basing it on how it's trending with the wave/trough and sfc low positioning, and how these tend to work with the modeling. I think we would have seen it back off with the 12z runs if we were moving to a weaker solution. Looks good to me in the mtns. East of there it will take some heavy temperature analysis to determine locales with snow.

It's banging on the heavy rates scouring out the low level warmth. Tough forecast.

Euro looks like a light snow event for the mtns and foothills..into far NE GA...storm is slow to depart...some snow mixed in east of there probably

Euro is a little farther inland with precip....and a little warmer

Early 12z UKMet looks similar to GFS & CMC...detailed maps later