griteater

She's trending

For me personally, part of it is that temps look to cooperate for the most part. Fighting temps in the GSP to CLT to RDU corridor wears on you...so you perk up a bit when temps are pretty good.

It's an abbreviation for 500mb...the movement and evolution of upper atmosphere waves are big pieces of the puzzle when it comes to forecasting and these are most commonly tracked at the 500mb level (5H or h5).

My apologies for screwing some people over with the clown map snow on the old run...here's the SE version of 12z run...can compare them now anyway

Euro Kuchera Clown Map

Euro is quite vigorous with the wave...closing it off at 129-132 over SW VA and NW NC, with vort max tracking thru N GA to E NC

At 123-126, it has good snow from Columbia to eastern upstate to most of central and NW NC

Real similar to last run of the Euro so far out to 111, but it's a little sharper with the trough, and a little more SW with it

Should be another positive run of the Euro....it even has decent snow developing in ARLATX this run at 93-96

Euro out to 78 is pretty vigorous with the wave dropping down over the upper Midwest...western ridge is a little taller

So the UKMet at 500mb was pretty much unchanged from its previous run. Its surface reflection moves a sfc low through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeast as opposed to focusing the key piece of energy into the southern portion of the trough with sfc low moving off NC coast.

What was that January ultimatum again?

CMC was improved...it pretty much just has flurries over NC, but has a storm rolling east off the NC coast....5h trough was likely a little better (I haven't seen it yet)

SV crude clown map has 4-6 inches over central and eastern NC

Yeah 12z is very Euro looking. It's a nice pass of the 5h vort max. Colder than the Euro too

Don't know, but it's one of those deals where we can't afford any reversal of the trend

EPS with trend toward increased western and eastern Canada ridging...associated squeeze play is trending the trough more to the southwest

^ Ventrice isn't a hype-ster. Heck, I don't even know if he likes cold

Solar has been rather quiet since mid November...solar wind/Ap Index have both been quite low. QBO is fine too - it's actually a very close match to 2009-2010. AO for Dec was -0.059. NAO was 0.73. So, the AO has been right at neutral and the NAO has been positive. It's a bit of a head scratcher...QBO and Solar have cooperated, but the NAO wants to remain positive. Other factors at play I'm sure. The strat PV strength has been up and down...it was a little weaker than normal in late Nov thru Dec...now it is a little stronger than normal

Storm gets squashed by the northern stream wave over the Great Lakes on the 12z GFS so the early precip is light. CMC has a hardcore icing event for NC foothills up into SW VA

Some info here: http://www.atmo.arizona.edu/students/courselinks/spring13/atmo170a1s1/lecture_notes/ul_charts/ul_charts_pt3.html

Looking like it may be tough to avoid an icy commute in NE GA into western Carolinas Monday AM. Cold, dry airmass in place, but sfc high moving off the coast so it's in-situ damming....could end up with one of those E VA meso sfc highs if the precip locks in the cold damming. As precip breaks out overnight Sunday, Euro has NE GA with temps of 29-30 and dewpoints in single digits and low teens. Move to Monday commute and Euro has SC upstate in the upper 20's with dewpoints in negative single digits to low teens. So, hard to buy a quick warm up if the precip gets in there and locks it down.

I have sunshine here...in the sky that is

I'd love to see that. Ha. Yeah, no concern of it missing south. North and too warm maybe

Jan to date plus 7 day GFS forecast