griteater

Comparing 00z to 12z, each of the ensemble means moved a little south and colder (GFS, CMC, and Euro)...all with CAD ice Sun night / Mon morn

That's going to be a cold airmass moving in behind the coastal bomb...so, just depends how far south the next system can track. The winter tracking index is above normal so far that's for sure

Oh fritschy, you say this every winter. It's normal winter weather. Nothing unusual about it

I predict the NAM jogs east next run

Big arctic plunge on Euro mid next week after the cutter

So they are talking about this being the 3rd coldest New Year's Eve in New York City, with the coldest being Dec 31, 1917. Dec 1917 was the coldest Dec on record in Charlotte. Here's a photo of a car on the frozen Yadkin River from Dec 17, 1917. Ice was 8 inches thick - http://surrycounty.pastperfectonline.com/photo/F57129DC-B587-492B-8753-585554254989

12z CMC has nice looking setup after the cutter...to go along with posts above about 06z GFS

Trending. Check out Alaska

Was noticing this trend too Pack. It's like a 3 step process. Step 1 - strong low emerges off E Asia and moves northeast. Step 2: -EPO ridge builds thru Alaska / W Canada. Step 3 - cold air plunges south into S Canada and the U.S. But it's like the models play catchup a lot with Step 3. When you start to see step 1 on the modeling (the strong low emerging off E Asia), it's a good sign that Step 3 will occur even if the models aren't currently showing it - I guess Step 3 is farther out in time on the model, and it's more difficult for the model to render it that far out in time. HM (Anthony M) says no torch coming for January. If you are interested in long range forecasting and you don't follow him, you should. He's the best there is IMO at producing long range forecast ideas that go beyond model interpretation.

Here's the upper jet ridge building through Alaska on the GEFS

Combine a SW wave with overperforming NE PV and cold, and who knows. Speaking of cold, I think we are going to see it continue for a little while at least. The models continue to show strong lows ejecting off E Asia into the Aleutians. I would expect to continue to see colder model corrections in the 8-15 day range...we'll see

^ It would be right on the 30 yr anniversary

Jan '88 is back bay bee. It's going to trend south right on top of us. This is the one

No, the ensemble members would be slight variations of the current model, run at a lower resolution

Of the ensemble?

OK, I'm a few weeks late, but here's the update for the early Dec storm...

Yeah work from home has ruined a good snow day

It's looks like both the HRRR and the NAM 3km pivot the precip shield and back-build the trailing large band associated with the upper wave overnight and swing it through overnight and into the AM

You can see on the CC radar a surge of warmth as the snow vs other line races up to I-85 in the upstate and NE from there to Mooresville area. Basically, the atmosphere can feel Mack's warmth coming up from Columbia Looking at the HRRR, it does show this surging warm nose (not to be mistaken with the pre-storm warm bubble) and it hangs in the upstate to CLT corridor until overnight into sunrise unfortunately The benefactor of this surge will be those just to the north of it who are cold enough for snow, maybe Hickory to Morganton to Winston

The 3km NAM has convective shower/thunderstorm cells rolling through SE GA into S SC, so the model is indicating that those storms could rob the moisture transport into central NC...we'll see

GFS and Euro both roll comma head precip through NE GA into the western Carolinas in the overnight to late morning timeframe....should keep the snowy mood going in those regions. This makes sense given that the trough axis is still as far west as the Mississippi/Alabama border at 4AM. It won't fully clear out until that trough axis swings through. Accumulations will be more efficient once the sun goes down...it makes a difference.

My 1-3 call there wasn't enough. My apologies

GSP update, ha... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... As of 1230 AM EST Friday: No changes. Will address the near term with the new fcst package. Suffice to say the wheels have not fallen off...yet.

I don't know guys, I see temperature issues in upstate and central NC as the bulk of the precip moves through on the Euro. Just as the lowest levels get cool enough in the Triad, the 850 0 deg moves NW right into the Triad (and it is probably warmer above 850). I think the snow maps are interpreting transition areas as all snow. There is a changeover to some light snow in GSP to CLT Fri night and into Sat morning...same for Triad but more of it there. I would want to be in the mtns and northern foothills...we shall see

I do not. Rain with snow possibly mixing in at times is how I see it. Tough forecast, maybe the stars align one time