griteater

After the sounding comes up, there is a dropdown at the top center of the page for Hr - so you can change the forecast hour there. At top right, there's a dropdown for map where you can view the map and choose another location for the next sounding

GFS out to 81...overall it's slightly more precip / slightly warmer

GFS out to 69, it looks like it's going to take a baby step toward more precip

GFS out to 57 - it's bending the heights back to the SW more this run so it should be a little slower with the storm....but it may have trouble sharpening the base of the trough

No way the GFS will come in way amped, but maybe it takes a baby step

You can just click on the map on pivotal weather and get the soundings as the maps come out. Same with the College of Dupage models, but for some reason I was having trouble with the NAM soundings. Tropical Tidbits has it too, but not for the NAM (no idea why) http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=refcmp_ptype&rh=2017120506&fh=78&r=conus&dpdt=

As others have mentioned, the upper jet structure is good here (right entrance region of jet over the northeast)...that should allow for precip to expand back to the west. Models are notorious for being too skimpy on the NW side of Miller A's....should see the precip expand back to the NW with that kind of jet structure

The NAM looks too amped at the base of the trough, but I like a toned down version of this...but with precip getting back into E Tennessee

It's kind of how I've been envisioning this system, but we'll see what the other models say when they come in

NAM = que the Fred Sanford holding the heart pic

Outside of the mountains, quicker is not the trend we want to see from a temperature standpoint

UKMet looks a little faster and slightly less amped to me compared to last run...hard to tell on the precip...detailed maps come out later.

CMC looks a little quicker with the storm this run...has some light snow in north GA to upstate to parts of central, then western NC....not a lot of precip thrown back west into the cold air

Some light snows before precip ends from Raleigh north to Chesapeake

Need to see what the UKMet says for trend clues

Looking like GFS is going to be an eastern scraper again

GFS out to 69 - just minor differences, but it looks a whole like the prior run to this point

GFS out to 45 - western ridge is a little taller

Chuck - one thing, it looks like your numbers are off for last winter as it was +NAO

Thanks for the info and good luck with your prediction. You killed it in the other thread with your La Niña prediction in the face of warm ENSO modeling. Nice work.

You speak a language for which I am not familiar with in the piedmont

That's definitely bermudagrass in the middle part of your top image. And that surely looks like straight up crabgrass in the bottom image. I would go with the cheapest weedkiller you can find...they basically have the same ingredients. But for those 2, I would use Roundup (or any cheaper, knockoff brand - ingredient is glyphosate). Roundup is going to kill everything you spray it on...of course, as mentioned before, the Bermuda is likely to come back. There are sprays specifically for crabgrass, but I've found they don't work that well, or work slowly and require multiple applications. If it were me, I'd just kill off the crabgrass with roundup, then reseed those areas in Sept...put out your crabgrass preventer in Feb/early Mar, a little heavier in the troublesome areas. The thing about lawns is that the better your grass gets, the less maintenance / spraying it will require. It takes a few years to get there though.

I can't go the jburns route, but I understand it. Dave, you probably have bermudagrass, but we'd need to see a photo. As the saying goes, the only way to get rid of bermudagrass is to move, as in move to another house because you can't get rid of it. What I would do is put Roundup on it (knockoff brand of Roundup is fine). Then when it comes back up, put Roundup on it again. Maybe you can dig it out to start the process, but doing that alone likely won't solve the problem as the bermudagrass root system is hard to kill. Bermudagrass is great in the summer heat in the south, but doesn't grow in shade and it goes dormant (tan) at frost from Nov-March/April....and like you said, it spreads into your mulched bed areas. I'm having some problems with nutsedge myself. Here is some info on it: http://www.clemson.edu/extension/hgic/pests/weeds/hgic2312.html. Sounds like there are specific chemicals for nutsedge, else Roundup can be used. Of the grasses/weeds you mentioned, true crabgrass is the easiest of the 3 to address. It's an annual that begins growing in the spring from the seeds deposited from the previous year's plant. Put your crabgrass preventer out in Feb/March next year, and you shouldn't have much of any crabgrass pop out next year. Right now through August is a great time to remove the weeds prior to reseeding your fescue in September (including removing the existing crabgrass). Personally, I like seeding with turf type fescue, with no bluegrass. Fescue handles the heat a little better than bluegrass.

I would be interested to hear from burrell on the peach farm. Looks like a rough couple of nights ahead after a warm winter and early growth